Ryan takes lead in early poll; 45% remain undecided [IL Senate]

The Illinois Leader ^ | October 23, 2003 | Fran Eaton

[JohnnyZ]

CHICAGO - Goldman Sachs' partner-turned-teacher Jack Ryan's most recent investment in early campaign television ads and mailings appears to be paying off.

The other GOP campaigns, however, aren't buying it.

In a poll released today by his campaign, Ryan is showing a 24-point lead in his bid to be the next Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, replacing Illinois' retiring U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald.

Ryan was supported by 35% of those polled, followed by Jim Oberweis with 11%. State Senator Steve Rauschenberger got 3% of the votes, and retired General John Borling and businessman Andy McKenna tied at 2%.

45% of those polled remain undecided.

The telephone survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters throughout Illinois was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on October 19-20, with a margin error of +/- 4.38%.

"The Ryan campaign's decision to get an aggressive jump on the March primary has paid off to date. Jack Ryan is now the frontrunner who the other candidates have to chase down," pollster Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Stratgies said today." To catch up to Jack Ryan, his opponents will have to run a negative campaign."

The poll shows that Ryan's name recognition increased substantially with a recent statewide television ad and direct mail campaign. Since June, Ryan's name identification has increased to 65%, with 34% favorable and 5% unfavorable. The "unfavorable" category has been one that Republicans have been watching, concerned that the "Ryan" name factor could be devastating in the general election, due to the negative public perception of the name "Ryan" as identified with former Governor George Ryan.

"This is an interesting campaign strategy," Charlie Stone, spokesman for the Rauschenberger campaign said today when told the polling results. "Our internal polling shows different numbers, and all these numbers are very early."

Stone said his candidate, while placing third in the Ryan poll, has over thirty endorsements from elected lawmakers and has been successful in increasing his campaign coffers since Rauschenberger first announced his candidacy last month.

"Others may try to buy votes," Stone said. "We will earn them. It is clear that there are a lot of voters who are still undecided. You can't buy credibility."

"Where did they make the calls, New Trier Township?" asked Rod McCulloch, campaign director for the Borling for Senate campaign. “These numbers are as meaningless as they are illusory. ”

McCulloch, himself a pollster, said today that he recalled the early frontrunners in other U.S. Senate campaigns. At this point in 1996, Lt. Governor Bob Kustra was leading his nearest rival, State Representative Al Salvi by a margin of 48-6% in a five-way race.

In 1998, Comptroller Loleta Didrickson led State Senator Peter Fitzgerald by margins of more than two-to-one until just before the primary election.

“I have a feeling that Mr. Ryan, like ‘Senator Kustra’ and ‘Senator Didrickson,’ is fooling only himself with these numbers.”

Illinois Leader has calls into other campaigns.

The story is still developing . . .

[Pubbie]

"Hull seems to be falling flat."

They said the same thing about John Corzine.

Give Hull some time to run, didn't Hull say he would spend 20 million of his own money to win the race?

[BillyBoy]

Yes, but Hull is a joke. I remember when he marched in my town's parade and just came off as this cocky limosine liberal egomanic. He's ALERADY spent $2 million and most Illinoisans (including my parents) say "Blair who?" when the name comes up because they are not paying attention.

Just out his bio page on his website. This guy basically has no credentials other than the fact he made zillions in investment banking. Other than that, he was a union member 40 years ago when he was 19 and once taught H.S. classes. Wow, so did my uncle but he's not running around acting like he's gonna be the next U.S. Senator.

[Clintonfatigued]

Blair Hull said that he would spend $20 million in the 'Rat primary, and another $20 million in the general election. But there is a key difference between Hull and Corzine: Jack Ryan can match Hull dollar for dollar in the general election.

[Pubbie]

"But there is a key difference between Hull and Corzine: Jack Ryan can match Hull dollar for dollar in the general election."

Actually, Ryan isn't quite as rich as Hull is.

Do you see any parallels between Hull and Corzine? I'm praying that Hull is Ryan's opponent and NOT Hynes.

I recall Corzine, like Hull is now, started out in the single digits in the primary, but then won the nomination by sheer force of money.

What do you think?

[Clintonfatigued]

The parallels I see between Jon Corzine and Blair Hull are obvious: both are veterans from Goldman-Sachs, both have appealing biographies, both are liberal neophytes spending their way into office, both represent states that have trended heavily to the 'Rats in the late 1990'. But Blair Hull faces much tougher opposition than Corzine ever did. Corzine had the total support of the 'Rat establishment in the primary, and faced an bland, underfinanced Congressman (Bob Franks) in the general. Also, while Illinois leans to the 'Rats, it still has a much larger rural vote and conservative base than heavily urban/suburban New Jersey. Also, you're right about another thing: state Controller Dan Hynes is a formidible candidate, and even Jack Ryan would have a tough time beating him.

[Pubbie]

Great informative post.

I guess Hull has an uphill climb ahead of him, However 20 million dollars can get you VERY far in life so stay tuned.

Later on I'll do some Google news searches to see how this Democratic primary is going (Ryan looks like he will take the Republican nomination so I'll concentrate on the Democrats.)

[cookcounty]

"Stone said his candidate, while placing third in the Ryan poll, has over thirty endorsements from elected lawmakers"

What Mr. Stone doesn't realize, is that in this state, ravaged and raped by the politicians (including the GOP establishment), 30 such endorsements is pretty much useless. On second thought, it's a negative, at least with me and many other "fed-up-with-it" Republicans. I'm planning to "Back Jack." "sick-unto-death-of-politicians state."

[cookcounty]

We conservatives are getting as ambiguous as the Dems:

"Kathuria is ....... a minority ....

So,.... he's a transvestite?