Posted on 10/23/2003 8:02:57 PM PDT by JohnnyZ
CHICAGO - Goldman Sachs' partner-turned-teacher Jack Ryan's most recent investment in early campaign television ads and mailings appears to be paying off.
The other GOP campaigns, however, aren't buying it.
In a poll released today by his campaign, Ryan is showing a 24-point lead in his bid to be the next Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, replacing Illinois' retiring U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald.
Ryan was supported by 35% of those polled, followed by Jim Oberweis with 11%. State Senator Steve Rauschenberger got 3% of the votes, and retired General John Borling and businessman Andy McKenna tied at 2%.
45% of those polled remain undecided.
The telephone survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters throughout Illinois was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on October 19-20, with a margin error of +/- 4.38%.
"The Ryan campaign's decision to get an aggressive jump on the March primary has paid off to date. Jack Ryan is now the frontrunner who the other candidates have to chase down," pollster Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Stratgies said today." To catch up to Jack Ryan, his opponents will have to run a negative campaign."
The poll shows that Ryan's name recognition increased substantially with a recent statewide television ad and direct mail campaign. Since June, Ryan's name identification has increased to 65%, with 34% favorable and 5% unfavorable. The "unfavorable" category has been one that Republicans have been watching, concerned that the "Ryan" name factor could be devastating in the general election, due to the negative public perception of the name "Ryan" as identified with former Governor George Ryan.
"This is an interesting campaign strategy," Charlie Stone, spokesman for the Rauschenberger campaign said today when told the polling results. "Our internal polling shows different numbers, and all these numbers are very early."
Stone said his candidate, while placing third in the Ryan poll, has over thirty endorsements from elected lawmakers and has been successful in increasing his campaign coffers since Rauschenberger first announced his candidacy last month.
"Others may try to buy votes," Stone said. "We will earn them. It is clear that there are a lot of voters who are still undecided. You can't buy credibility."
"Where did they make the calls, New Trier Township?" asked Rod McCulloch, campaign director for the Borling for Senate campaign. “These numbers are as meaningless as they are illusory. ”
McCulloch, himself a pollster, said today that he recalled the early frontrunners in other U.S. Senate campaigns. At this point in 1996, Lt. Governor Bob Kustra was leading his nearest rival, State Representative Al Salvi by a margin of 48-6% in a five-way race.
In 1998, Comptroller Loleta Didrickson led State Senator Peter Fitzgerald by margins of more than two-to-one until just before the primary election.
“I have a feeling that Mr. Ryan, like ‘Senator Kustra’ and ‘Senator Didrickson,’ is fooling only himself with these numbers.”
Illinois Leader has calls into other campaigns.
The story is still developing . . .
Ryan - frontrunning conservative with JFK image and bio to die for
Rauschenberger - conservative state senator, fiscal dude
Oberweis - "Pro-lifers are like the Taliban" - and I like milk
Borling - let's reinstitute the draft and keep abortion legal - yay!
McKenna - Bet I coulda beat Fitzgerald one-on-one . . .
Kathuria - I did NOT grope Dennis Tito, no matter what the LA Times says
I've seen his commercial a number of times. At least he's trying to impress on the voters that he's NOT George Ryan and NOT Jim Ryan.
Kudos to Jack Ryan for realizing that you have to appeal to pro-life and pro-gun voters to win the primary (Kustra/Dickerson were unapologetic RINOs), but Jack just isn't as conservative as he claims to be in public. He claimed to be "torn" on several social issues and wouldn't even give a position on life/guns until his pollster guy told him what kind of people vote in the primary (now his website says he's strong on both), and he's given several liberal stances on paper when ILSenate.com made him give a postion flat out: Q. "Do you support the death penalty?"
A. "No, I do not support the death penalty"
Q. "How would you control the costs of Medicare?"
A. "Every effort must be made to strengthen Medicare and Medicaid. Individuals using these programs need more health care choices and help controlling the rising costs of prescription drugs. Protecting the aged and fighting to give the less fortunate a chance are the cournerstones of my campaign for the Senate."
Q. "Do you support both patriot acts?"
A. "I will follow President Bush's lead and do everything possible to protect America from terrorism"
Q. "What is your position on O'Hare expansion?" [big government program proposed by Chicago Mayor Daley]
A. "Supporting the expansion of O'Hare and examining the feasiblity of a third airport are crucial to the continued success of Chicago...Expanding O'Hare will reduce flight delays,improve existing and provide new runways, create jobs and allow for western access to the airport..." (to his credit, he did go on to say he was against backroom deals being used for croynoism)
Q. "Do you support race based affirmative action?"
A. "In 2000, I left Goldman Sachs to teach at Hales Franciscan High School, an all African-American, all-boys parocial school on the south side... (goes on to talk about the importance of helping inner-city schools) Bashing affirmative action based on race is wrong. Instead, we as a soecity need to reach out...
Q. "Do you support affirmative action based on economig status?"
A. "We need to help those who are economically less fortunate become the bset they can be. In order to achieve this goal, it is essential we provide a quality education and growing economy to our children..."
Don't get me wrong, I'm NOT saying the guy is a RINO, just that we can do better in the primary. People are sick of Republican "Ryans", which is not this guy's fault (he's VERY different from George or Jim!) but it is a problem with the sheeple and caused them to vote RAT in droves last year just to stop another "Ryan" for winning. (That being said, if he wins, I will certainly be happy to vote for Ryan over a RAT in the general election). But right now there are lots of alternatives.
State Senate Steve Rauschenburger (a.k.a. Rauschy) comes from the same background as Fitzgerald (member of the IL General Assembly since '92) and is conservative across the board except for his stupid blanket amnesty stance. He'd make the best Senator-- the only question is whether he can win the primary and whether he'd be electable in the general election (right now he needs a LOT more $$$). Of course the Dems know he's a long time elected offical so they have a paper trail to smear him with. I can see it now: "Intolerant, homophobic, sexist... middle-aged white man...blah blah blah")
I think Kathuria is really the best of both worlds. The liberal media REALLY must view him as enough of a threat to run a hit piece on the guy when he's in 5th place (a hit piece so slanted and now proven false that even his OPPONENTS have denouced it!). He's a minority and his getting crossover support from people who don't normally vote Republican. He has LOTS of $$$ to burn, he's got the amazing "American dream" background like Ryan that the soccer mommies will love (parents came here as poor immigrants, son has lived in Illinois since he was 8 monthes old, graduated Valedictorian from Downer's Grove H.S., went to Stanford, got a MBA and a Doctorate, started buisnesses that made millions, put the first civilian into space, provided medical relief in Kosovo, etc.) PLUS he's a great conservative on all the issues-- INCLUDING strongly opposing ILLEGAL immigration. He's a hell of a long shot, but his candidacy sort of reminds me of Bill Frist crossed with Alan Keyes. I'm sure he'd be forminable against Hynes in the general election if he won the primary by some huge upset. I LOVE underdogs, so he's got my vote.
Illinois for some reason has a passel of Irish.
I think it's interesting to note that Pat O'Malley has not yet endorsed anyone. However, one of his top henchmen, Dan Proft, has turned up in the Ryan camp and is apparently tasked with "conservative outreach" for Ryan's campaign. The first roundtable meeting set up to pitch Ryan to consevatives was held at O'Malley's country club.
I know O'Malley wants to be governor in '06 and is smart enough to know that he'll need mainstream support as well as the conservative base to win it. If he can deliver the conservative base for Ryan and get him elected as Senator in the general, I think he'll be able to claim Ryan's broad based popular support when he goes after the guv spot.
RAUSCHY AFTER SHAVING: 
>> Rauschie and Ryan -- Rauschenberger has the best experience and is stronger on the issues but has virtually no money. Ryan makes soccer moms salivate and is preety much free from damaging entanglements in the IL GOP establishment, plus he's more electable <<
Like I said, I've thinking the same thing and that's why I realized Kathuria is the best of both worlds.
Rauschy = Lotsa of resume experience, stronger on the issues, conservative activist, not with country-club establishment
Ryan = LOTS of $$$, easier last name to remember, gets crossover votes from minorities and women, would be big threat to Dems in general election.
Kathuria = Lotsa of resume experience, LOTS of $$$, stronger on the issues, conservative activist, not with country-club establishment, easier last name to remember, gets crossover votes from minorities and women, would be big threat to Dems in general election.
Go Dr. K!
I've met Kathuria on a couple of occasions, had lunch a couple weeks ago with his campaign manager and another staffer -- nice people, all of'em. But Billy, wake up, Kathuria IS NOT GOING TO WIN this time out!!! And losing Peter's seat to make an ideological statement is not an option.
Kathuria is the kinda guy we ought to unite around to run against Durbin, someone who's got the bucks and the spunk to mudddy him up a little.
I dunno, seems that replacing one retiring conservative with another is a heck of a lot easier.
I wish Ryan would have had the guts to run against Dickie so we could have TWO Republican Senators now though...
Kathuria (R) $682,929
Jack Ryan (R) $665,225
McKenna (R) $656,172
Oberweis (R) $494,951
Borling (R) $90,072
Raushenburger (R) $49,110
The DemocRAT candidates Hynes, Hull (spoiled brat), and Chico have MILLIONS on hand.
I think Dr. K is a long shot in the primary. In the GENERAL election, it would drive the rats nuts to compete with a successful, articulate minority who got there WITHOUT affirmative action and amnesty deals.
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