Posted on 06/23/2003 3:02:36 PM PDT by Amish
Last cycle, much of the action in Senate races took place in the Midwest, with competitive races in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Missouri ultimately deciding which party would control the chamber.
This cycle, the South is the scene of many of the significant races, and that’s terrible news for the Democrats, who continue to lose ground in a region that once constituted their party’s bedrock.
In addition to Georgia Sen. Zell Miller (D), who has already announced he won’t seek re-election, at least four other Southern Democrats may well retire: Sens. Fritz Hollings (S.C.), John Edwards (N.C.), Bob Graham (Fla.) and John Breaux (La.).
Hollings and Edwards are certain to face very difficult tests even if they decide to run for re-election. Rep. Jim DeMint (R) and former state Attorney General Charlie Condon (R) are already in the South Carolina contest, and Rep. Richard Burr (R) looks to have established himself as the GOP standard-bearer in the Tar Heel State…
…How bad is the Democrats’ outlook in the South? If the Republicans win Senate seats in the Carolinas and Georgia next year (all quite possible), they’ll hold all of the U.S. Senate seats in seven contiguous Southern states starting in Virginia and stretching around to Mississippi. Only three states of the Confederacy, Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas, would have Democratic Senators.
GOP strength in Dixie isn’t anything new, but just a couple of years ago some Democrats were talking about a comeback. After the 2000 elections, Democrats sat in the top state offices of both Carolinas, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, and party strategists were arguing that the party’s fortunes had bottomed out in the region…
…But 2002 seemed to disprove that assessment, as voters ousted Democratic governors in South Carolina, Alabama and Georgia, as well as a Democratic Senator in Georgia.
Democrats also failed to recapture targeted House seats in Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, and the party couldn’t capitalize on open Republican-held Senate seats in North and South Carolina, Tennessee or Texas.
Even the Virginia gubernatorial victory of Mark Warner (D) in 2001, and the election of Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and re-election of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) last year couldn’t alter the conclusion that Democratic victories in the region were the exception rather than the rule.
…Of course, Democrats are far from conceding defeat in any of this cycle’s Southern contests…
…While Democrats hope to woo back Southern white swing voters by pointing to the Bush administration’s failures with the economy, the region’s cultural conservatism, combined with its deeply held patriotism, gives President Bush and the Republican Party important weapons to use against the Democrats.
And Democratic hopes of holding onto the party’s Senate seats in the region could vanish well before next November if national Democrats embrace the liberal label by nominating Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry or former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean for president.
Yes, though our ex-RINO Governor was the one that created a rift in the party and partly allowed for the current 'Rat Gov's win. Of the 3 GOP Governors in our modern era here (there were none elected from 1922-70, in keeping with most other southern states, though we at least had a couple after Reconstruction, unlike other ones, and are the only southern state to have had a large GOP presence, solidly holding the first two Congressional seats without fail, since the 19th century, a record almost unmatched anywhere else), the first one, Winfield Dunn was a semi-Conservative, but he has turned RINO in recent years, endorsing the RINO who our ex-Gov used as a stooge in the primary last year, Lamar Alexander was a moderate, but he did practically zilch for the state GOP, and Scumquist fooled us all, amassing a Conservative record in Congress and morphing into a RINO by the end of his first term and doing even less than Alexander for the party. We've never had a truly "activist" Conservative Governor, and we had high hopes for Congressman William Van Hilleary. Of course, watching one of his colleagues in Alabama go to work, that being ex-Rep. Bob Riley, has not been too heartening, with his tax-happy approach. I'm trying to figure out whether he is deliberately playing some angle or whether he has gone "Scumquist" on us there, but he is to be commended for his vocal Black outreach, even persuading a Black State Rep. in uber'Rat Tuskegee (home of the famous institute founded by George Washington Carver) to switch to the GOP.
"but we are not as bad as California's either. I don't understand the state that can elect Reagan, can be so leftist."
CA has really been electing left-wing Governors since the 1910s. From "Progressive" Republicans Hiram Johnson and Sunny Jim Rolph, up through the present day, there has been only 3 Conservative Governors. Frank Merriam, who succeeded Rolph in '34, was one (and he was defeated by the Gray Davis of the era, Culbert Olson, a 'Rat Sinclarite Socialist who faced several recall drives). Olson was defeated by leftist RINO Earl Warren (Warren was also a rabid anti-Asian racist, taking delight in interning Japanese-Americans during WW2). Warren was succeeded by another leftist RINO Goodie Knight (and Knight would've been succeeded by a Conservative GOPer, Sen. Bill Knowland, who persuaded Goodie to run for his seat, but the attempted "switch" in jobs occurred in the awful '58 'Rat landslide, and both lost). Succeeding Knight was leftist 'Rat Pat Brown (who wasn't as leftist as Olson), then Reagan (who had troubles enough in the primary when the Warren-Knight wing annointed leftist San Fracisco Mayor George Christopher, but Reagan dispatched him). Reagan, surprisingly, had a disappointing reelection victory in '70, coming uncomfortably close to losing to 'Rat legend Jesse "Big Daddy" Unruh, the Assembly Speaker (Unruh more a pragmatic liberal than a doctrinaire one, probably more moderate than Brown). Pat Brown's son, Jerry, the most left-wing Gov since Olson, succeeded Reagan, but his unpopularity and the 'Rats selection of liberal African-American L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley, contributed to the election of bonafide Conservative Attorney-General George Deukmejian in '82. Unlike Reagan, who noticeably slipped in support from '66 to '70, Deukmejian bolstered his reelection numbers in '86 over Bradley in a rematch. Alas, then-Sen. Pete Wilson, a social liberal RINO, was coronated for the Governorship in '90 (narrowly prevailing over San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein), and he was the most liberal Republican Governor since Goodie Knight, but his anti-Mexican tack in '94 (which won him a 2nd term over Pat Brown's daughter and Jerry's sister, Kathleen), was more comparable to Earl Warren's anti-Asian pogram. Unlike that, which didn't harm Warren's successor (or Warren, for that matter) since Asians hadn't much voting power outside a few L.A. and San Francisco precincts, the Hispanics vented their wrath at Conservative Attorney-General Dan Lungren in '98, who lost in a landslide to Davis (Davis, of course, was Jerry Brown's Chief-of-Staff, so if that didn't give an indication of where the state would be headed, nothing else would). That brings us to the current day. The thing with CA is, Conservatives can win victories, as long as they run strong campaigns. Some nay-sayers around here claim otherwise, but the most successful Governor in the last 4 decades, ironically, wasn't Reagan, but was Deukmejian ! The GOP in the state would be in much better shape if it didn't allow the Wilsons and the Riordans to call the shots.
"Washington has been trending left for some time. Even during our Republican years...we had a lot of liberal Rs in office."
Washington is still a bit more Conservative than it was during the '30s and '40s I would think. There was a considerable radical leftist presence in those days. They even sent Socialist kooks like Marion Zioncheck to the House. A young unshakeable radical, the guy was literally a nut and, in his 2nd term in the House, wrote some bizarre suicide note, climbed out on a hotel balcony and splattered his brains on the sidewalk below, and he was only 34 years old. McDermott, of course, sits in his seat today (and if he ain't the reincarnation of Zioncheck...).
"IL is really ILL. I don't understand why they can't get their act together either."
It's all about power, but the state GOP has had some "ethics" issues going way back to when it was in the back pocket of the mafia in the '20s and '30s. Al Capone had the very last GOP Chicago Mayor, Big Bill Thompson, on his payroll. Even when the Republicans were driven from power in Chicago, the 'Rats then replaced them on the payroll. The 'Rat successor of Thompson's, Anton Cermak, who was down in Miami to greet President-elect FDR in '32, wasn't there for vacation but because he was either simultaneously chasing and/or eluding mafia hitmen. Cermak was "whacked" there standing right next to FDR at an outdoor function and died (FDR, some historians claim, was the target, but it was Cermak whom they were after). You want a real taste of old Chicago, go to wild and wacky Cicero, literally run the way Chicago was in the '20s. Cicero was technically where Capone lived under an assumed name at the time, and he influenced its politics, too. Italian Republicans, embodied by the likes of the Maltese family, ran the city as their own personal machine, and the city continues to vote GOP as if it is some distant Chicago suburb, rather than a heavily minority community. The city was turned over from Betty Loren-Maltese (currently in the pokey) to her Hispanic protege, and it overwhelmingly elected this Latino Republican to Town President (Mayor) and also sent a Latino Republican to the House. This might look like positive outreach on paper, but how it was achieved in practice, is nothing but (as Sean Connery would put it in "The Untouchables", the 'Chicago Way.'). That's wacky Illinois for ya. BTW, my ex-Gov Scumquist was an Illinois transplant, so that also explains what "happened" to him. It's quite possible he could be facing future indictments for abuse of office, and I would love to see that.
"Indiana is right next door and they tend to be a very Republican state. I understand that they have the Chicago mafia running half the state, but what about the other half."
Heh, well... IN has had terrible luck since the Evan Bayh era began in '88, last electing a GOP Governor in '84. They've had some "difficulties" in internal party squabbles and lost practically all of the major city Mayorships, save Evansville, whose first-term Mayor is the son of a former GOP Mayor who was assassinated (and he got in on a sympathy vote, from what I heard).
"You are right...I forgot about Linda Smith's district. That was a fluke in my mind...although I don't understand an area that is so depressed economically that relies so heavily on timber votes so regularly for the Ds..the party that wants to strip away their only really remaining source of income. True that they are diversifying a bit more, but not too much. Land is still fairly affordable down in South Western Washington....the problem is that there is not a lot of white collar jobs down there."
That sounds a lot like CA's 1st district, which also had a large timber industry. They sent some 'Rats and one real loony who later switched to the Green Party. They had a good Congressman for most of the '90s in Frank Riggs, but he saw the district was moving leftward fast and retired, and now it's back to sending 'Rat leftists again... The timber industry, I understand, is in great decline in the 1st now, and the Greens have displaced the Republicans in a lot of areas, leapfrogging the 'Rats, even. :-(
"McDermott is dubbed accordingly as the "Congressman for Life". He is safe in there until he dies or choses to retire. Dicks...although a D is at least tolerable...so is Adam Smith (most of the time). They are both pro-military (okay they have to be because their districts contain huge military populations). Larsen ...needs to go. The First (my district) is changing a lot. It used to be reliably Republican when Miller was in there...but Inslee has a lock on it. We can't seem to recruit good solid candidates that can take him on. My friend Joe Marine is wonderful, but was not ready for national politics. He got slaughtered in the general election during a pretty good year for the Repbublicans. Hopefully, we can recruit a good candidate this next go around a raise a lot of money. That was Joe's issue that he was not ready for a national election and did not have the money, organizations, footsoldiers, and national support to unseat Inslee. Redistricting made the district a little more favorable...but not a lot."
That's too bad. I heard a bit about Mr. Marine. Even running losing campaigns in the '70s and '80s, it seemed like the GOP ran closer and better campaigns for Congress in almost every district. It's really a shame that the mid '90s was merely a blip, rather than a long-term trend towards the GOP, on the radar screen. :-(
"John Spellman was horrible and was a real blight on our party. I hoped that Eikenberry would have won as I saw him a lot like an up-and-coming Gorton without the anti-Indian baggage. I would love to see what he is up to, but he has been out of the game for over ten years...I don't see a lot of hope."
About the only good thing Spellman did was to be Governor for when an appointment had to be made for the late, great Scoop Jackson's Senate seat, and to put Dan Evans's butt in it, otherwise, as you said...
"I hope that Inslee will run for Governor...at least he is better fiscally than Norm "tax to the max" Sims, or Phil Talmadge."
Of course, you don't want him to win, though... ;-)
"Linda Smith was a good hope but she did not get the national or local support she needed and even deserved. She was polarizing and abrupt, but she really could have won. She ekked out wins down in her Congressional District by very narrow margins...She was a proven vote getter...but she has disappeared off the radar screen. I wonder if she even lives in the state any more. She really threw some tantrums on the House Floor and alienated a lot of voters."
I had forgotten about the tantrums, I guess that's not so classy... :-P Well, she still would've been far better, and she certainly had passion. She was more a populist Republican, and I don't tend to mind them too much, as long as they don't totally leave the plantation.
"I supported Bayley in that primary as he is a family friend, but I really felt that he was a fossil without a prayer. I was surprised that Linda couldn't take out Patty. She has at least 100 IQ points on her and I am being generous to Patty. I live near Shoreline (where she was a School Board Member)...what an idiot!!!!"
Bayley sounded like a good sort, too, but he was merely used by a lot of interests to try to sabotage Smith's chances. Mitch McConnell, my neighboring state Senator, made it clear that he would in no way help Smith because of CFR. He felt that would end up handing the 'Rats Congress right back again, of course, it's seemed to have hurt the 'Rats more, who'd have thought ?
Due to corruption in the country club, the base not in the club is demoralized. They don't see themselves as the party, they see the people they hate as the party.
Well, all signs initially pointed to a Goldsmith victory, who was one of the best and most innovative Mayors in the nation. However, he didn't emerge with the most spectacular primary victory (only 54%) when his opponent ran an anti-Indy campaign. Unfortunately for Goldsmith was a last minute occurance that was not his fault when some off-duty cops used racial epithets in a downtown brawl and were indicted as a result. Frank O'Bannon (who presented a largely unoffensive demeanor) had run on a "keeping things status quo" platform on the heels of the popular Evan Bayh, and he managed a 5% victory, carried Indianapolis, and had the 'Rats retake control of the State House. Goldsmith also had a final slap in the face due to changing demographics in Indy, of seeing the Mayor's office passed off to a 'Rat for the first time since Dick Lugar's predecessor left office and instituted UniGov in the '60s. I think we'll take the Governorship next year with Mitch Daniels. Scarcely have I seen that level of critical mass for a single candidate as I have with Daniels. I hope he lives up to the hype.
Sure thing, though I do have a habit of going on a bit... :-P
"I was coming home from work yesterday and realized that I did not answer one of your questions. Peggy Olsen-Pichard is fairly "progressive" in some of her thinking. The lady she is running against (the incumbent) is a little interesting...Lora Petso. She has somewhat of a reputation of being a "NO" vote on just about anything. The fiscal irresponsibility of the city of Edmonds is amazing considering that we have four of the seven councilmen as Republicans...one tends to be the Bob Dole compromiser when he doesn't need to compromise since they are in the majority. Lora votes no all just about all the bugetary issues which has turned a lot of the lefty-artsy-fartsy residents against her. Although I don't agree with all her votes...I am torn who I am going to support."
Well, as I've always said, it's not enough you just have Republicans elected, they have to know what they're doing and have vision. Joel Pritchard was a tad too left-wing for my tastes, so if the daughter is seeking to emulate him, that might not be a good selection. It's nice to have a character or two on a city council as such (our city council, Metro Council, as it is called, has a whopping 40 members, which is a result of merging Nashville and Davidson County back in 1963, only Chicago's Board of Alderman is a larger governing body. Our late former Mayor, Bev Briley, once aptly called the council "40 jealous whores", all angling for attention. Since we implemented term limits, the Council now follows the Mayor's lead). You have to ask yourself if Ms. Petso is part of the solution with her votes, or part of the problem. Sometimes the "no" types can serve a purpose and sometimes they're not particularly helpful at all. Of course, someone who manages to pi$$ off the lefty residents sounds like they can't be all that bad. If Ms. Olsen-Pritchard is like her pop, she'd vote more with the Democrats. I was always amazed her dad never switched parties myself, he was a poor fit in the GOP Congressional caucus (39% lifetime ACU rating) and often voted identical to Tom Foley and Floyd Hicks.
"Informative about the various state parties...You know your stuff. I would have to say that I would like to have at least one Republican Governor sometime in my lifetime...I may even accept a RINO."
Hmm, having had far too much experience with that, I hope to never have a RINO Governor again. It's a bad sign when our current 'Rat Gov appears to be a tad more fiscally responsible then the "Republican" was. :-(
"Here is Joe's Website. I haven't heard what his next move is going to be...he is a great person and a strong candidate, but I would like him to run for something local...non-partisan before going for higher office.... http://www.speakeasy.org/~schlienz/main/marine.htm"
Thanks. I think I saw his page when I was copying biographical info on the candidates last year. I did notice he served 3 years on the Mukilteo Council (and a stint as President) along with filling in on an unexpired term in the State House. He probably should've served at least another term in the legislature, though. I noticed that his seat went to a 'Rat named Brian Sullivan... :-(
"I would agree that Washington still has some Conservative pockets. There has been talk that the Eastern portion of the state should split from the state and form their own state...They are never represented in Olympia and by their State's Senate delegation."
Yeah, I heard about that "Cascadia" (was that the right name ?) proposal. The 4th and 5th districts would be equal in population to Idaho, IIRC. CA has the same problem with all of its counties beyond the coast, and Oregon for everywhere outside Multnomah County. Remove a few of these counties in those states, and they become as Republican as their historical roots.
"In 2000, Slade won every eastern Washington County in a landslide, but the "special" ballots of King County (people who were not registered to vote...I say fraud...but it got lost in the whole Florida debate" tipped the election to Cant-vote-well. Pretty sad, but Gorton did bring it upon himself by not campaigning very hard and for some unpopular votes. Then he went around the state with Gary Locke trying to convince us to raise our gas tax $.095/a gallon...for "transportation"...so they can siphon it off for their pet "social engineering" projects."
Yeah, a lot of that fraud going around. :-( As you've mentioned before, Gorton did make a number of missteps. Aside from those, he was still a fairly decent Senator (albeit starting to get a bit long in the tooth). I'd probably add that had he survived that narrow contest when he initially lost reelection to Brock Adams, he might very well have been defeated by Osama Patty in '92 (especially given Bush Sr's abysmal showing there that year when the 'Rats swept all but Jennifer Dunn's district), then the state might've gone through the '90s with her and, gasp, Mike Lowry, as the Senior Senator. Dumb and dumber...
"Enough ranting from me. Cheers"
Well, given the situation up there, I can understand... Why is it all the pretty coastal states attract all the freak voters and politicians ? :-(
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