For Senate Democrats, Southern Collapse Delayed, Not Avoided

Excerpts from Roll Call article ^ | June 23, 2003 | Stuart Rothenberg

[Amish]

Last cycle, much of the action in Senate races took place in the Midwest, with competitive races in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Missouri ultimately deciding which party would control the chamber.

This cycle, the South is the scene of many of the significant races, and that’s terrible news for the Democrats, who continue to lose ground in a region that once constituted their party’s bedrock.

In addition to Georgia Sen. Zell Miller (D), who has already announced he won’t seek re-election, at least four other Southern Democrats may well retire: Sens. Fritz Hollings (S.C.), John Edwards (N.C.), Bob Graham (Fla.) and John Breaux (La.).

Hollings and Edwards are certain to face very difficult tests even if they decide to run for re-election. Rep. Jim DeMint (R) and former state Attorney General Charlie Condon (R) are already in the South Carolina contest, and Rep. Richard Burr (R) looks to have established himself as the GOP standard-bearer in the Tar Heel State…

…How bad is the Democrats’ outlook in the South? If the Republicans win Senate seats in the Carolinas and Georgia next year (all quite possible), they’ll hold all of the U.S. Senate seats in seven contiguous Southern states starting in Virginia and stretching around to Mississippi. Only three states of the Confederacy, Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas, would have Democratic Senators.

GOP strength in Dixie isn’t anything new, but just a couple of years ago some Democrats were talking about a comeback. After the 2000 elections, Democrats sat in the top state offices of both Carolinas, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, and party strategists were arguing that the party’s fortunes had bottomed out in the region…

…But 2002 seemed to disprove that assessment, as voters ousted Democratic governors in South Carolina, Alabama and Georgia, as well as a Democratic Senator in Georgia.

Democrats also failed to recapture targeted House seats in Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, and the party couldn’t capitalize on open Republican-held Senate seats in North and South Carolina, Tennessee or Texas.

Even the Virginia gubernatorial victory of Mark Warner (D) in 2001, and the election of Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and re-election of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) last year couldn’t alter the conclusion that Democratic victories in the region were the exception rather than the rule.

…Of course, Democrats are far from conceding defeat in any of this cycle’s Southern contests…

…While Democrats hope to woo back Southern white swing voters by pointing to the Bush administration’s failures with the economy, the region’s cultural conservatism, combined with its deeply held patriotism, gives President Bush and the Republican Party important weapons to use against the Democrats.

And Democratic hopes of holding onto the party’s Senate seats in the region could vanish well before next November if national Democrats embrace the liberal label by nominating Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry or former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean for president.

[Abram]

I am happy to see the Republican Party moving to take over more areas of the map. I would like to see them nominate some people that can win some races in the Pacific North West. Besides Alaska, we only have one Republican Senator on the entire West Coast (Gordon Smith of Oregon). Once we have captured the South...please head west and get rid of Feinstein, Boxer, Wyden, Murray (Patticake), and Cantwell(can't vote well).
Republicans are winning Senate races in the South because the national Democrat Party has turned their back to their issues. The issues of the poor, urban areas may win the D party votes in the urban centers, but it does not address the real issues at the regions. The Republican Party has done a better job of marketing themselves as a national party that is really interested in the middle and the emerging middle classes. I hope that they continue this marketing campaign and not get tied up in socially conservative, but emotionally charged issues of morality, etc.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I hope that they continue this marketing campaign and not get tied up in socially conservative, but emotionally charged issues of morality, etc."

Er, then what is the point ? Economics ain't worth a pound of crap if it isn't grounded in morality. That's why most of us are Republicans.

[fieldmarshaldj]

*ping*

[Impy]

I find it funny they can't find a decent candidate in Georgia. Like here in Illinois we will probably lose the senate seat but at least we've got a guy who can win.

[rmmcdaniell]

Like here in Illinois we will probably lose the senate seat but at least we've got a guy who can win.

I don't know about that.

[Abram]

I am a fiscal conservative and I tend to support/campaign for/vote for Republican candidates, but honestly, I can't tell the difference sometimes, because Republicans are so willing to compromise and often end up raising our taxes and invading individual privacy rights more than the Democrats. Speaking of privacy rights...I don't know how morality can be governed. That is one thing that I do not agree with the national Republican Party on is that it talks about personal freedom, separation of powers, individual and states rights, but then they come charging in trying to dictate and legislate morality. I am a strict constructionalist...if it is not in the U.S. Constitution...it is a state power or does not belong in the hands of government. Morality is taught from the pulpit, not from the floor of Congress or from the Oval Office.

[Impy]

I don't think he's likely to win (talking about Jack Ryan here) but I think he can, if Bush does really well here or if the rat makes a lot of blunders. At least he will make the rats have to spend precious $$$$.

In contrast that state sen. who called Sonny Perdue a rascist (who is so far the only dem for sure running) can't win in Georgia.

[Kuksool]

GOP Solid South Bump

[BlackElk]

Isn't it remarkable how many social issue surrender monkey RINOs clog every thread on GOP nominations? They are no more representative of Republicans, much less conservatives than the red seminar callers who clog C-SPAN's Washington Journal each morning each of whom claims to be a disabled two or more tour veteran of Vietnam and who is calling to denounce Dubya for the Iraqi War, ostensibly on behalf of similar veterans. I am waiting for one of them to slip up and claim to have been disabled at Gettysburg.

Who ARE these guys, as Butch Cassidy used to ask? Democrat Undergrounders? Site disrupters? Libertarian libertines with an agenda who want to be a political party when they grow up and would like to inherit ours? Muffy, Skipper and Mumsy down at the polo club or at the home for the terminally clueless?

Sorry to have been somewhat silent and for leaving the heavy lifting to you but various duties make it less possible at the moment for me to participate on FR right now.

[Pubbie]

"and John Breaux (La.)."

Hmmm... More speculation that Breaux will retire.

Let's also hope evan Bayh retires because it Indiana would be a very easy pick-up!

[The Old Hoosier]

I hope that they continue this marketing campaign and not get tied up in socially conservative, but emotionally charged issues of morality, etc.

Those morality issues won Senate seats in Georgia, Missouri and Minnesota in 2002.

[fieldmarshaldj]

You sound more like a libertarian.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Well, I'll try to give this gent the benefit of the doubt. He wants to win elections without getting bogged down in sticky moral issues and sack liberals that way. Well, that may be fine and dandy, but it really can't be done, because you can't divorce the two these days. Morality even defines how campaigns are run or how a candidate conducts themself. There's a basic disconnect between how most 'Rats and Republicans view issues of right and wrong. It's why someone like a Patty Murray has no problem championing big government, high taxes, abortion, anti-school choice and downplaying Osama bin Laden, all of those issues tie together in how this person views moral and economic issues. It's rather sad, actually. Decades ago, moral issues such as abortion, religion, etc., weren't nearly as hot as they are now, because both parties basically were in agreement in maintaining a strong moral order, but then the '60s and Watergate came and the 'Rats decided that they didn't like morality anymore, or that morality was however you chose to personally define it (no matter how screwed up) and now we have the mess we have now and why we're back to why you can't separate morality any longer from politics.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Sorry to have been somewhat silent and for leaving the heavy lifting to you but various duties make it less possible at the moment for me to participate on FR right now."

Eeek ! I realized I answered so many posts yesterday, I must've flooded your messages page. Sorry about that. In any event, it looks like the RINO defenders in the other threads got tired of debating the issues and resorted to personal attacks. In other words, I won the debate. :-)

[Abram]

And lost them in Washington, New Jersey, Virginia...the list goes on.

[Abram]

I tend to be very lower case liberterian. I am a fiscal conservative and a strict constructionalist of the U.S. Constitution. I vote pretty much straight ticket R...even when I know the R does not have a chance to win. Call me a R, but I have probably given more money, knocked on more doors, stuffed more envelopes for people that I did not completely support than a lot of people on this site. A RINO, maybe, but a very proud member of the Republican Party and a strong supporter of President George W. Bush.

[MainstreamConservative]

"Hmmm... More speculation that Breaux will retire."

If he does we can expect a very competitive race between Rep. Chris John(D) and Rep. David Vitter(R).

"Let's also hope evan Bayh retires because it Indiana would be a very easy pick-up!"

We can hope, but that's probably not going to happen. He will coast to relection and look seriously at joining the 2008 democratic field for President, despite the fact that Hillary! will be running.

By the way, that list you used is a ping list. I'd like you to add me to it.

[Pubbie]

Ok I just Created it!

[BlackElk]

You are kinder than I but they do not know that.