Posted on 10/24/2002 5:07:50 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Grucci Now in Trouble
Fireworks Family Heir May See Re-election Bid Go Up in Flames
By Ben Pershing
An otherwise quiet Congressional election cycle in the Empire State has grown livelier in recent weeks as Rep. Felix Grucci (R) suddenly finds himself with a serious fight on his hands in the 1st district.
Redistricting essentially made every New York incumbent safer, and the dearth of vulnerable House Members there and in the nation as a whole has brought that much more attention on the tightening race between the freshman Grucci and former Southampton College Provost Tim Bishop (D).
While Grucci retains the advantages of incumbency and a large war chest, a controversy over one of his ads and the swing nature of the district have combined in the waning days of the campaign to make the contest look like a tossup.
"We've got [Grucci] right where we want him," said Bishop spokesman Doug Dodson. "I don't think all the money in the world can save him at this point."
Some of that swagger is inspired by a poll Bishop's campaign released this week that showed Grucci ahead by just a point, with his support hemorrhaging rapidly.
The survey, taken for Bishop by Alan Secrest of Cooper & Secrest Associates, showed Grucci leading the Democrat 39 percent to 38 percent, with Green Party candidate Lorna Saltzman pulling 6 percent and 19 percent undecided. The poll tested 512 likely voters Oct.14-16 with a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
Most significantly, the survey showed a precipitous drop in Grucci's favorability numbers. When the same firm polled in August, Grucci's ratings were 51 percent positive and 28 percent negative. The new survey put his ratio at 41-37.
If the new results are accurate, they would mean serious trouble for Grucci, not just because the race is close but also because his support is under 40 percent despite being an incumbent with - according to the poll - 93 percent name recognition. Bishop's name ID was just 56 percent.
Republicans were dismissive of the Democratic survey's results.
"I think these Cooper Secrest polls have been notoriously unreliable all cycle long," said Steve Schmidt, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "Felix Grucci is going to be re-elected to Congress."
Schmidt said the contention that this race was close was just one in a series of "wild claims" by Democrats. "I think they're looking for oxygen any place they can find it. This has more to do with keeping an increasingly dimming hope [of taking back the House] alive."
If they have polled the district recently, neither the NRCC nor the Grucci campaign will release their numbers.
Under the new Empire State lines, Republicans have a significant registration edge in the Long Island-based 1st district, but, according to the NRCC, it still would have gone for Al Gore (D) by 9 points in the 2000 presidential election.
Democrats have argued that Grucci was vulnerable since he was elected in 2000 over librarian Regina Seltzer, who scored an improbable win in the Democratic primary against party-switching Rep. Michael Forbes.
Privately, Republicans acknowledged that the race has grown exceedingly close, but most remain cautiously optimistic.
"Are we watching it? Absolutely," said a Republican active in New York politics, adding that he still expected Grucci to win. He argued that Gov. George Pataki's (R) strong re-election campaign would help Republicans all over the state, particularly on Long Island.
The word has gone out to House Republicans that Grucci needs help, and the checks have poured in, including donations last week of $7,000 from Rep. Tom Reynolds' (R-N.Y.) TOMPAC and $4,500 from the NRCC.
As of Oct. 16, Grucci had raised $1.2 million this cycle and had $212,000 on hand after spending nearly $300,000 on advertising in the first two weeks of October. Bishop's pre-general report was not available Wednesday, but he had $205,000 available as of Sept. 30.
Both Republicans and Democrats agreed that Grucci erred when he released an ad earlier this month alleging that Bishop had turned his back on rape victims while at Southampton College. The local press pounced on the ad, saying its claims were unsubstantiated, and Newsday ran a blistering editorial that Bishop and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have used in their own ads. Newsday has subsequently endorsed Bishop.
Republicans point out that Grucci wasn't the first candidate to go negative in the race; an earlier Bishop ad resuscitated old charges that Grucci's fireworks company had polluted drinking water.
Dodson said Bishop's campaign had been spending "in the neighborhood of $88,000 a week" on television and radio advertising. The state Democratic Party has also done some cable advertising and direct mail for Bishop, and the DCCC is up with a television spot highlighting the Newsday editorial and Grucci's low score from the League of Conservation Voters.
Now, Republicans are back on the offensive with a negative spot saying that Bishop opposes the death penalty even for Osama bin Laden.
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