Posted on 10/22/2002 7:02:04 PM PDT by sboyd
We are a little over two weeks away from the election. So I ask you the same question I asked myself. Who is going to win the battle for the senate? I have done extensive research and watched the trends for a while now, just like many of you. I finished a week ago a statistical analysis of voting trends in Georgia. Let me also state that most elections are referendums on the incumbents. Candidates have to expose the incumbent. Dole failed to do this in 1996. So here are my predictions.
GA- Max Cleland is in trouble. Do not let poll numbers fool you. Here is three or four percent under 50%. Very bad news for incumbents. Everyone here in GA says the outer circle does not know Rep. Saxby Chambliss and so he will lose. They will vote for Saxby and he will make in roads into south GA because that is his base. Max Cleland has only one thing going for him- the sympathy vote. Sonny Perdue is the gubernatorial candidate and he is going to bring many voters out to vote against Gov Roy (King Roy) Barnes. Barnes is almost CA's version of Davis, but not as bad. This seat will be decided between 10,000 to 30,000 votes. You can give Cleland the advantage right now, but his numbers are shrinking. Saxby, do not shoot yourself in the foot and keep hammering Cleland for voting against Homeland Security. If he does this then Chambliss should win. The third party candidate is taking valuable votes away from Saxby Chambliss. The debates could be critical. Chambliss is the better debater. For all you GA people who want Zell Miller (the sheep in wolf’s clothing) to switch, Zell is 70 years old and probably will not run in 2004.
Missouri- Democrats usually only lose in moderate states when they shoot themselves in the foot. Carnahan is doing just that. She is an awful debater, but it goes deeper than that. Talent is a good candidate. He is plainly out campaigning her. The polls have Carnahan falling sharply. Like 47 Talent to 41 Carnahan. She blew her CNN interview claiming that the Bush Administration was after her. This is a republican pick-up. The only problem is St. Louis. Law officials should keep a close eye on downtown. I smell democratic operatives moving in for secret ops.
South Dakota- SD is the classic battleground. It is pure ideology. I predict, and I don't care how close the polls are, that Thune will win. Thune has won many statewide elections handedly. Johnson skated by 6 years ago. I am not underestimating the tightness of the race. I am only saying Thune will win. The drought and now the voter feud are both problems in the campaign. The voter fraud on the Indian Reservation shows that even the democrats realize Johnson is going to lose. When South Dakotans get in their voting booths, they will get that old time GOP feeling and stick with Thune. GOP pick-up.
Minnesota- A beautiful state with two horribly left-wing senators. Wellstone is one breath away from communism. He hardly ever gets anything done because he is even out of touch with most of the democrats, especially southern democrats. The polls have been back and forth. Wellstone did lie about serving three terms, but most don't seem to care about that. Once again, third party candidates are hurting the republicans. Coleman can pull this out. There is a video clip of Wellstone calling his labor union goons to beat up on a cameraman. It was ridiculous. It’s really hard to say what is going to happen here. But the democrats are really scared here and should not be given the fact that this was the only state to vote for Mondale in 1984.
Iowa- Another great state, central and western Iowa are the best, you can keep eastern Iowa. Harkin vs. Ganske. Ganske's one real thing that is going for him is that fact that he has won a pretty liberal district consecutively. The polls indicate that Harkin is going to win. Remember Henry Wallace (Iowa), the VP of FDR who said that FDR and Truman were not liberal enough? It seems that his followers are trying really hard to keep Harkin. Now Harkin has been caught trying to eaves drop on Ganske. I am not sure that Iowans will be greatly outraged by this. They should be. I predict Harkin by 2 or 3%. Ganske can win if he out campaigns Harkin. It does not seem to be going that way.
New Jersey- Who in this forum is not angry over how we got cheated here? We would have won if it were not for that state supreme court. NJ is a liberal state and Lautenberg, by avoiding debates so people will not see how over the hill he is, has refused to debate. I predict a Forrester defeat. We got cheated out of a seat.
NH- I sure would like to Shaheen go down in flames. She is a liberal in denial. Sununu can win and probably will. It will be real close. Shaheen's failure within the budget and education could hurt her badly. I really could not see a republican gubernatorial win in NH and not a senate victory too. I predict Sununu by a hair.
NC- Dole will win by one of the biggest margins in NC's history. She will pose a threat to Edwards in the future. She will be a very popular senator and probably an outspoken leader in the senate.
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander is going to win by at least 5%. Maybe he will help the republicans with the gubernatorial race there too.
Arkansas- If there is one state I am worried about then it would have to be Arkansas. Hutchison is in trouble. Eastern Arkansas is going to be a problem for him. There are a lot of blacks there and as you know they traditionally vote democrat. The only good thing is that Pryor has run before and lost. I predict a democrat pick-up here. The only other state I was worried about was NH.
Louisiana- Landrieu is more liberal than she appears. The real best hope the GOP had here was that if Gov. Mike Foster would have jumped in the race. Foster would have probably beaten Landrieu. She will not get 50% on Election Day and that will put her in a runoff. Then it will be up to the GOP to get the vote back out to win. I think Landrieu is safe for now though.
Well, that's all of them for now. I predict a GOP senate pick-up of one or two seats. Or we could tie. One of the two parties will have a majority though. The House is pretty safe for the GOP. Watch out for Chafee. He is doing that what if talk about switching. I do not think he will betray his father's memory though. Let me know what you all think. Now, like O'Reilly says, "It's time for the audience to decide."
If we have a runoff and the Republicans have already regained control of the Senate, then I think we have an excellent chance of beating Landrieu. President Bush won Louisiana by a 53% to 46% margin. The combined total for Pat Buchanan and Howard Philips was about the same as the Green Party total. If we add those to GWB's total, the state leans 54% to 46% conservative. Mary Landrieu is at least as liberal as Algore was.
The most important thing for the Republicans is to maintain unity. The good thing is that all three of our candidates are campaigning as solid conservatives. There isn't one of them that I would feel bad about having to support in the runoff. While Governor Foster would have been a more certain victory, we still have a chance of taking a seat.
How? They would hold opposite seats.
We have 2 candidates running againts Landrieu in LA?
We have Taylor back in the race in MO and no Raciot?
We haven't been able to extend the olive branch to Coleman and ask him to drop out?
We haven't been able to get flip-flop Bob Smith to support Sununu (proper spelling?)?
Were is the GOP adds in NJ demanding a Debate?
If we need to take the Senate Ternt Lott needs to go. Where is the quest for victory here? Was it Vice Lombardi after a bad defeat told his players: "Gentlemen we are going to start at the beginning, this is a football". We need someone like this in the GOP to kick a** and not be afraid of victory, Not these spagetti limp noodle woosies.
Perhaps Ann Coutler as the next Senatitorial Strategist for 2004, lately she is the only one outside of GW, Rummy, Cheney and Condi that has a pair.
It's not that extreme, the dems did it to Traficant (long before his legal troubles) because he said he supported Hastert for speaker.
It's high time we learned that we cant meet our enemies head on by taking the higher road.
This is an attempt to prevent Landrieu from getting 50%, which forces a run-off.
We have three candidates running against Landrieu in Louisiana, and we are doing it on purpose as our best chance of beating her. To understand this strategy, you have to understand the system and situation in Louisiana.
We don't have primaries in Louisiana. Everyone who wants to run is on the same ballot in November. If one candidate receives 50% + 1 vote, that candidate wins, and the election is finished. If none of the candidates has that majority, then the top two finishers have a runoff.
The early choice for the GOP was Dr. John Cooksey of Monroe. He was elected to Congress in '96 and had promised to serve only 3 terms in the House. He is keeping that promise and will quit the House this year. He was in the Air Force for a while and has had a long career as an opthamologist. He has also had some other medical practice and has delivered some babies. In his spare time, he has served the party as a volunteer and fundraiser. He has spent many of his vacations going to Africa as a medical missionary. He is a good guy. Unfortunately, after the 9/11 attacks, he was arguing for profiling and said that someone who shows up with a diaper held on his head with a fan belt should expect some extra attention. It was a rough remark, but it's no worse than what many public figures on the left have said. Unfortunately, the party ran away from him for his "insensitivity." He has the endorsement of our popular governor, but his campaign didn't seem to have a great deal of momentum.
The party was afraid that Dr. Cooksey would lose to Liberal Senator Landrieu in November, so it encouraged other candidates to join the race in an effort to expand the vote and keep Landrieu under 50%. The idea is to force a runoff and hope that we can out-mobilize her in December when there is nothing else on the ballot.
Dr. Cooksey will be strong in northeast Louisiana and among people who will pay attention to the governor's endorsement. I think Governor Foster received about 70% of the vote in his re-election bid, so his endorsement could move some votes. Tony Perkins is a strong conservative who will be most effective and mobilizing the religious conservatives. He has been a state senator and has often battled Governor Foster in order to try to reduce spending at the state level. Budget hawks and those who value independence from the party will like him. Suzanne Haik Terrell is the current election commissioner and has done a good job in that office. She was also on the New Orleans city council. She is the only Roman Catholic among the Republicans, and that still has meaning in this state. She can also match Landrieu among those who vote for a woman against any man. She also has support in New Orleans which is the only part of the state where Democrats really have an advantage. Without New Orleans, Landrieu wouldn't have a chance. Taking some of her base there will help all of the Republicans.
I think all of the Republicans are good candidates, and I will be proud to support the one who makes the runoff. The important thing will be keeping all of the Republican supporters together and unified behind whoever makes it to the runoff. I wish we had a primary, but we'll make this system work.
WFTR
Bill
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