Johnson Up In SD Senate Race

http://www.southdakotaelections.com/print/Index.cfm?Type=Election&ID=792 ^

[coyotekid]

Aside from Thune's GOP poll showing him up, all other polls show Johnson leading, including this one.

The Public Opinion Strategies Poll showing Thune leading was done for "another statewide GOP candidate". Thune hasn't released one of his own in months, but he sued to. Seems to me that confirms the trend that shows him trailing. Not good for Thune.

He'll have a tough time using Iraq, as Johnson is the only Senator who ahs a kid on active duty U.S. military, who served in Afghanistan this year and whose unit (101st Airborne) has already been deemed publicaly as one of 3 units likely going to Iraq. Hard to attack someone who will be voting to send his own son into combat.

I think we better hope Talent or Coleman can pull this out for the GOP.

http://www.southdakotaelections.com/print/Index.cfm?Type=Election&ID=792

[2iron]

Did Bush's failure to act quickly on drought relief for SD farmers turn this race to Johnson? Semed like Thune was slightly ahead up to that point. Big disappointment.

[ottersnot]

Time to take the gloves off in South Daschkota.
Nationalize the corruptness of the Democrats and
their candidates in New Jersey and South Daschkota.
Just look at these judges in Jersey. If they follow suit
as expected thats the kind of thing that can motivate
a guy in Spearfish to get out and vote against.

[coyotekid]

Bush's visit was a huge disappointment because when Thune announced he was coming, he said Bush was going to address drought relief. He did address it, he said "you must endure." Incredible tactical mistake by Thune. He should have kept Bush away.

Frankly, I hate to admit this, Thune has run a much poorer campaign. Aside from a bio ad on tv, everything else Thune has run on TV is an attack on Johnson. You would have thought he'd learn from bloodbath of a GOP gubernatorial primary that voters are turned off by it. Johnson is about 50-50 positive vs. attack. Sadly, I think it will cost Thune.

[Gunder]

Am I missing something? I just went to the link and it looks like Johnson is only up by one. Certainly within the margin of error. Why all the panic?

[GoMonster]

it is 44 to 43. Challenger usually get majority of undecides at the end. I will bet you even money on Thune in South Dakota especially with stuff going on in New Jersey.

[BlackRazor]

it is 44 to 43. Challenger usually get majority of undecides at the end.

Normally that is the case, but what about an instance when both candidates are already state-wide incumbents? That is the case in South Dakota. Thune is the state's lone House representative. Because of that, I don't think you'll get the normal undecided vote breaking against the incumbent. This is essentially an incumbent vs. incumbent match-up.

[coyotekid]

well, there have been 3 polls released in the past two weeks: Zogby (Johnson +3), Argus Leader (+1) and Johnson's own polling (+4). Let's assume that Johnson's and Thune's own polls cancel out, you have the independent ones showing a Johnson lead, albeit small. Remeber that Thune had a 9-point lead until this summer and no independent poll has shown him leading ever since.

the panic is that in a state that Bush won by 22, and one where there are 25% more registered Republicans than Democrats, it's a disturbing trend.

the last post is true as well: they're both statewide incumbents (since Thune is the at-large Congressman), so any notion that the challenger is getting any undecideds or that the incumbent should be over 50% don't work here.

[lasereye]

I've been saying the GOP will lose one or two net Senate seats. At best they'll probably get no net change, even if Forrester wins. The economy, along with Bush's usual pull your punches GOP style of politics, is starting to take its toll.

[JeffInSD]

A friend of mine works at the NRSC and word is that Thune's last internals had him down 7, which would explain his nuclear assault with negative ads and literature.

Interesting, looks like they're not beyond dirty tricks, either. "Someone" has been leafletting church parking lots here in SD on Sundays with flyers that say Keep Abortion Legal - Vote Tim Johnson...or words to that effect. Can't fathom the Johnson folks would be that stupid with that issue in this state. Hope no one gets caught. That would suck.

[JeffInSD]

Does anyone know anything about Johnson's campaign staff? I know that Steve Hildebrandt who ran the Iowa caucuses for Gore is the campaign manager, but you hear a lot of talk about how good the staff is from some of the national stories. I don't know them, though.

[GoMonster]

Instead of reading Jeff In South Dakota (JeffinSD), It should read Gay Liberal Jeff in South Dakota (GayJeffinSD) who works in the Tim Johnson Campaign.

[GoMonster]

they still vote for change and Tim Johnson is the same and thune is the change. plus most are Republicans and they will come home in the end. Zogby has Johnson getting 21 per cent Repub vote. not going to happen

[Coop]

Remeber that Thune had a 9-point lead until this summer and no independent poll has shown him leading ever since.

I'd like to see what you've got showing a 9-point Thune lead. I have three GOP polls showing a 6-7 point lead for Thune back in Jul 01 thru Mar 02. Since that time I've seen only four independent polls showing Thune +4, tied, Johnson +1 and Johnson +3. The race probably is trending his way a bit, but now is hardly the time to be giving up. It's very, very close.

[JeffInSD]

I agree with that assessment. I think it is trending Johnson's way but no poll has been outside of the margin for error since the spring, so I suspect it will stay that way. Though, I'm not sure Thune would be helped by another Bush visit at this point.

[Coop]

I don't think the money raised by a Presidential visit would be a burden to Thune. :-)

[JeffInSD]

very true.

[ambrose]

The Dakota residents call themselves "conservative" and god fearing, but they always vote for socialists in congressional races because they're addicted to the pork barrel. Johnson will likely win because of this.