[Gunder]

Am I missing something? I just went to the link and it looks like Johnson is only up by one. Certainly within the margin of error. Why all the panic?

[coyotekid]

well, there have been 3 polls released in the past two weeks: Zogby (Johnson +3), Argus Leader (+1) and Johnson's own polling (+4). Let's assume that Johnson's and Thune's own polls cancel out, you have the independent ones showing a Johnson lead, albeit small. Remeber that Thune had a 9-point lead until this summer and no independent poll has shown him leading ever since.

the panic is that in a state that Bush won by 22, and one where there are 25% more registered Republicans than Democrats, it's a disturbing trend.

the last post is true as well: they're both statewide incumbents (since Thune is the at-large Congressman), so any notion that the challenger is getting any undecideds or that the incumbent should be over 50% don't work here.