[coyotekid]

well, there have been 3 polls released in the past two weeks: Zogby (Johnson +3), Argus Leader (+1) and Johnson's own polling (+4). Let's assume that Johnson's and Thune's own polls cancel out, you have the independent ones showing a Johnson lead, albeit small. Remeber that Thune had a 9-point lead until this summer and no independent poll has shown him leading ever since.

the panic is that in a state that Bush won by 22, and one where there are 25% more registered Republicans than Democrats, it's a disturbing trend.

the last post is true as well: they're both statewide incumbents (since Thune is the at-large Congressman), so any notion that the challenger is getting any undecideds or that the incumbent should be over 50% don't work here.

[JeffInSD]

A friend of mine works at the NRSC and word is that Thune's last internals had him down 7, which would explain his nuclear assault with negative ads and literature.

Interesting, looks like they're not beyond dirty tricks, either. "Someone" has been leafletting church parking lots here in SD on Sundays with flyers that say Keep Abortion Legal - Vote Tim Johnson...or words to that effect. Can't fathom the Johnson folks would be that stupid with that issue in this state. Hope no one gets caught. That would suck.

[Coop]

Remeber that Thune had a 9-point lead until this summer and no independent poll has shown him leading ever since.

I'd like to see what you've got showing a 9-point Thune lead. I have three GOP polls showing a 6-7 point lead for Thune back in Jul 01 thru Mar 02. Since that time I've seen only four independent polls showing Thune +4, tied, Johnson +1 and Johnson +3. The race probably is trending his way a bit, but now is hardly the time to be giving up. It's very, very close.