Posted on 09/08/2002 2:14:02 PM PDT by BlackRazor
Statistical tie in 2nd District
Long Thompson, Chocola find pluses in latest survey
By JACK COLWELL
Tribune Political Writer
SOUTH BEND -- A poll conducted for The Tribune and WSBT-TV by a nationally-known polling firm shows Democrat Jill Long Thompson ahead of Republican Chris Chocola by 3 percentage points, verification that the race for the 2nd District seat in Congress is a toss-up.
The poll also shows why both candidates are stressing the Social Security issue so much in their TV spots.
Long Thompson has a significant lead among likely voters who picked Social Security as the most important issue in the congressional race.
Pollster Del Ali said the key to victory could be whether Chocola can diminish Long Thompson's strength on Social Security or whether she can retain it.
Here are the percentages of voter support:
Long Thompson -- 43
Chocola -- 40
Undecided -- 17
Since the lead is within the possible statistical error margin in the poll, the meaning really is that this race which has attracted so much national attention remains close, pretty much a statistical tie.
An important factor cited by the pollster is that Long Thompson's name still is not initially recognized by about a quarter of the voters in the expanded new district.
Chocola, who ran for Congress in a large part of the new district in 2000, is better known, but he also has picked up a little higher percentage than his opponent of likely voters who have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Ali said that Long Thompson, if she is to win, must define herself positively with those who don't know her before Chocola defines her in critical TV spots in a way she doesn't want to be defined.
The poll results were given to the candidates Saturday.
Long Thompson hailed the results, saying her lead, though narrow, and her advantage on the Social Security issues "shows we in the district want someone on our side who shares our values. We don't want Social Security privatized."
Chocola also said he was pleased with the results.
"Jill Long Thompson has thrown her best punch and the race is still a statistical dead heat," Chocola said. "On the important issues I will work with President Bush to strengthen the economy, cut taxes and reduce wasteful spending."
When asked what the single most important issue is in determining for whom to vote for Congress, the respondents listed the economy first (17 percent), followed by taxes/spending (16 percent), Social Security (15 percent) and Medicare (14 percent).
Since both candidates have hit so hard on the Social Security issue, in their TV spots and campaign appearances, the pollster was asked to compile a breakdown on candidate support among those listing that as the No. 1 issue.
Of the 15 percent listing Social Security as the most important issue, 47 percent were for Long Thompson, 34 percent for Chocola, with 19 percent undecided.
The poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday.
President Bush came to South Bend Thursday to campaign for Chocola, but only a little if any "bump" for Chocola from the visit would have been registered in the poll, Ali said, because only about 80 of the 403 interviews came on Thursday night.
Good news for Chocola, the pollster said, includes the popularity of the president in the district. Bush had a positive rating of 69 percent (adding those who rate his job performance excellent or good), a bit higher than Ali finds in other polling around the nation.
Other political figures also were tested. Positive job performance ratings for them were these percentages:
Sen. Richard G. Lugar -- 69
Sen. Evan Bayh -- 61
Gov. Frank O'Bannon -- 58
Congressman Tim Roemer -- 54
Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan -- 49
A factor in Kernan falling below the "magic" 50 percent approval for an official was that nearly one in five respondents said they "weren't sure" about his job performance, an indication that many voters don't know what the job of lieutenant governor involves or how to rate it.
Good news for Long Thompson, the pollster said, includes having that scant lead in a district that appears to be slightly Republican in flavor.
When asked if, generally speaking, they would prefer to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress, the choice was Republicans 44 percent to 42 percent.
The traditional gender gap showed up in the poll. In almost all recent polling around the nation, men tend more than women to vote Republican.
Long Thompson had a 10 percentage point lead among women and trailed by 4 percent with men.
About the Poll
Conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md.Paid for by The Tribune and WSBT-TV for their exclusive use.
Based on results from telephone interviews Tuesday through Thursday with 403 likely voters in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District.
Error margin of plus or minus 5 percent
If this district is a bellweather, then this is very bad news. I think there's way too much optimism by Republicans about the elections.
You've got it. A poll commissioned by a party or a candidate tends to overstate their own level of support -- typically by 3-5 points, sometimes more. You also have to factor in the margin of error, which calls into question the statistical significance of smaller leads. Combine those two factors, and I'd say the above polling more than likely indicated a dead heat.
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