[lasereye]

The Pubbie used to have a significant lead.

If this district is a bellweather, then this is very bad news. I think there's way too much optimism by Republicans about the elections.

[conservative_2001]

I can't remember any poll that showed this guy with a lead in the polls. The only poll I saw showing him in the lead was a Republican-commissioned poll that had Chocola at 38% and Thompson at 32.5%.

I think the issue here is that we assumed Chocola would have the advantage. He ran against an incumbent 2 years ago and came really close. His opponent is a woman who got bounced from Congress in her last race 8 years ago. In my mind I started this as leaning towards Chocola, but it's now a pure tossup.