With the retirement of 14 term Republican Congressman Peter King, a South Shore Long Island Congressional District opens up for the first time in years. In what was seen as a safe district for Republicans with Peter King, New York's Second Congressional District now becomes a tossup between Republicans and Democrats. Stretching from the Town of Hempstead in Nassau County to the Town of Islip in Suffolk County, Democrats enjoy a slight enrollment advantage in this 70% Suffolk County, 30% Nassau County District.
As of mid-November 2019, the district was home to 159,500 Democrats and 149,469 Republicans but add the district's 8,119 enrolled Conservatives with Republicans and the enrollment numbers between Republicans and Democrats becomes nearly identical.
New York's Second Congressinal District (source)
One of the 8,119 enrolled Conservatives in the district is Olga Murray of Oakdale, who was just re-elected to her third term as Islip Town Clerk by a 57%-43% margin, running on the Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party lines.
The Town of Islip is completely within New York Congressional District 2, and comprises 41% of the district, the remaining voters live in Babylon 29%, Oyster Bay, 17%, and Hempstead 12%.
If Murray were the Republican and Conservative nominee and could amass 57% in Islip Town the same percent that she received as Town Clerk , she would be assured victory, as Islip has a Democratic enrollment advantage.
In 2016, President Trump carried the 2nd Congressional District over Hillary Clinton by a 53%-44% margin, while the result in Islip Town was closer, a 3 point 49%-46% Trump win.
If Murray announced as a candidate for Congress and were successful in her campaign, Murray would become the first enrolled Conservative elected to Congress since William Carney in 1979.