Posted on 10/10/2018 6:03:04 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot
University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato joins MSNBC's 'MTP Daily' with host Chuck Todd to discuss the Republicans struggling in states Trump won in 2016.
Sabato said Trump is in trouble in the Midwest, a part of the country where he did well in 2016, and it "seems to be flipping" in the midterm year. He said the states he carried, it appears, to elect Democratic Senators.
"Even if the Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican math that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states," Sabato said. "He's fallen considerably as a whole."
"This also reminds us that 2016 was a choice," he said. "It wasn't simply that people decided to vote for Donald Trump in a vacuum. Many of them were voting against Hillary Clinton. Maybe you dispute the premise of it, but essentially it's a two-pronged decision."
Chuck Todd agreed with the premise and said the media made the mistake of believing the 2016 election was a "referendum on Trump when it was actually more of a referendum on [Hillary Clinton]."
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
President Hillary Clinton believes Larry.....in a civil tone of course
........rounding?
This liar predicted W Bush would lose big to John Kerry .
An evil man .
Sabato has never been right about anything.
Sabado opining makes me feel better.
If the GOP-e would pull their heads out of their backside, they could show video of the insanity going on in Portland.
“This is coming to your town...brought to you by the new Democrat Party”
Comcast Globalist New has quite the line up.
...the reluctant to admit factor...
______________________
Add in the increasing numbers of blacks and Hispanics supporting Trump, the Walkaways that include white women of all ages and the families worried about their male members and the number of people who do not answer poll calls.
Don’t forget that there is increased vigilance at the polls and more states w/Voter ID.
We have money, too. We not only have a ground game, it has been increased 4x over what we had in 2016. I see no apathy (I’m in Wisconsin). The progs here were certain they would recall Walker. Then they were certain they would defeat him. They were set to defeat Johnson. They were celebrating Hillary before election day.
We had a high turnout in my precinct for the primary. On the prog side, a socialist who blanketed the county with yard signs was defeated for state legislature. A self-proclaimed Marxist activist was lurking around the polling place, looking tense and worried.
Sabato needs to get out more and travel around. Sort of like Donald is doing.
That remains yet to be seen. The Republican voters are in a fight for their lives and their way of life, for both them and their loved ones. The ball is in our court. We have a leader in President Trump. The sixty four dollar question is,will we follow his leadership? The Late and Great Winston Churchill eloquently phrases it thusly :If we will not fight when we can win,we will be forced to fight when there is no chance of winning. The only choice will be to die as men or live as slaves.
Vote
Note how they spin this. In the Politico story they say “209 seats Dem or leaning Dem!”
This is meant to make you think that the Rs will LOSE 209 seats.
Wait a minute! Right now, today, Ds have 196 seats. So if they end up with 209 . . .
1) They still don’t have control of the House, falling short by 8, and
2) They are almost EXACTLY where I put them last week when I said as of now they would gain 10-15 (206-211!!!)
Winston Churchill
Total morons.
As of today, with McSally and Heller polling, Rs will expand their lead in the senate by 3 (ND, MO, FL) with MT, IN, and OH still tight and no real recent polling (Rosendale was up in MT, Donnelly up a couple in IN, and a bogus poll from an OH paper has Renacci down 13-—utter tripe. My guys tell me he may be down 2, but Rs have a massive registration lead of about 300,000). Also, both Blackburn and Cruz have nailed down their races. WV close-—I’m told Morrissey is about within 2, but Manchin knows how to work the good ol’ boy network and it’s hard to explain how he “MIGHT” have voted against K.
So, let’s say worst comes to worst, that would be a net pickup for the Rs of FOUR senate seats (let’s split MT and IN). But NJ appears to be for real. Hugin down there in last three polls 2, 2, and 1. We have had conflicting polls in WI with Vukmir down 2 and down 8. A lot there will depend on the pro-Walker turnout.
The races I see as gone are PA and MI.
As for the House, I’ve gone through this race by race. I have it as a 10-15 DemoKKKrat gain, meaning max they will fall short by 8-13 seats in the House. Remember, we have 2 D-R flips (MN), another pending flip in AZ1, and possibly 3 other flips out there, and Trump’s popularity is rising fast (5 points in every poll over the last 2 weeks).
So as of today, I don’t think we lose the House and we gain 4 in the Senate, net. But we gain SEVEN (more or less) Trumpers vs. Flakeys/Corkscreweds. Big, big power shift away from the RINOS.
Thank you.
RASMUSSAN HAS IT ALL TIED UP! Sabato has gotten less tv time because of his lousy prediction in ‘16.
Incumbent governors are running for re-election in 20 states
—six Democratic, 13 Republican, and one independent.
I certainly do not expect Republicans to gain seats in the house. They will lose many and may lose the house by a few seats. However, it is unlikely they will lose the Senate and it is possible, with Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and Indiana, the Republicans pick up a seat or two.
This sure seems to be the nature of the mid-term election. I would say, though, the demo_rats threw away a possible wave when they went loony over the Supreme Court nomination.
JoMa
Thanks for the detailed report.
I’m only familiar with the local races (re: PA and NJ), and your analysis is pretty spot on.
He’s a biased hack if he doesn’t acknowledge Republicans are likely to gain seats in the Senate.
Let me guess, this guy also told us that Hillary was going to win in a Landslide...
A few weeks back, there was certainly the very real possibility that the Democrats would take the house... It wouldn’t have been the 63 seat spanking that Republicans handed Democrats in 2010.. but almost certainly the Dems would have taken back control.
Then the Democrats did what they did regarding Kavanaugh, and the apathetic GOP base, and apathetic middle which would have allowed the enthusiastic DEM base to win, became engaged and enraged.... There is no chance at the Dems taking the house now.. NONE.
In US Politics, there is one thing you CANNOT do, and survive....
and that’s ANGER the casual/independent middle... Anytime EITHER party does this, they get lambasted... And the Democrats behavior surrounding the Kavanaugh nomination just did that.
Any chance of the Dems taking back the house died with that fiasco... and the Senate was NEVER in play.
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