Posted on 10/10/2018 6:03:04 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot
University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato joins MSNBC's 'MTP Daily' with host Chuck Todd to discuss the Republicans struggling in states Trump won in 2016.
Sabato said Trump is in trouble in the Midwest, a part of the country where he did well in 2016, and it "seems to be flipping" in the midterm year. He said the states he carried, it appears, to elect Democratic Senators.
"Even if the Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican math that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states," Sabato said. "He's fallen considerably as a whole."
"This also reminds us that 2016 was a choice," he said. "It wasn't simply that people decided to vote for Donald Trump in a vacuum. Many of them were voting against Hillary Clinton. Maybe you dispute the premise of it, but essentially it's a two-pronged decision."
Chuck Todd agreed with the premise and said the media made the mistake of believing the 2016 election was a "referendum on Trump when it was actually more of a referendum on [Hillary Clinton]."
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Larry Sabato must be laughing himself silly all the way to the bank. He makes millions as a so called pollster and prognosticator. He doesn’t know jack nor s**t about politics any more than we do. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is more like the Magic 8 Ball, which could do a better job of predicting political races than a hack like Larry can!
My analysis, FWIW, energy at lib protests and Trump rallies does not naturally transcend into votes during Congressional elections, though Trump does seem to have the ability to give a bump to Congressional candidates when they need it. Remember the House races are based on demographic representation in that particular congressional district. Just because a Trump rally is well attended and full of energy in a state, those people come from miles around, and their particular district may be red, but if a district is majority blue, that’s the way, generally speaking it will go, it’s about numbers. I think the R’s will hold the House, but will lose seats as is common in mid-terms with respect to the President’s party. However, R’s will pick up seats in the Senate, possibly a fair amount. Bottom line, R’s maintain control of DC....the questions is, what will they do with it? Will they fight and build the wall, etc., or will they cave under intense media pressure that they’re bullying and not sympathetic to the rest of America?
No peripheral vision.
Tunnel vision is dangerous.
Just depends on where he takes his polling. I guess if you take your polling on a typical campus, you get the blue wave. I was thinking about that when I noticed the mayor of Tallahassee, the less than honorable Gillum who is running for Fla Gov, is mayor of a city that hosts two campuses that probably voted 90% for him for mayor. The jackasses we have on campus these days don’t have the ability to know they are being conned. IMO, they should raise the voting age to 25, just like the break out age of where insurance for autos costs decline. Immaturity should not be overlooked in the process.
Tomato, Tamato, Sabato, Saboto. Has this guy EVER been right? /s
LOSER!
That is why polls shouldn’t be trusted.
I believe that the polling news that the media reports are polls taken in the newsrooms. They are too lazy to get out of their own cubicles.
Right now, things are trending (R), but I'm a bit concerned - hopefully that doesn't make me a concern troll - that they might have peaked early.
We'll see. Meanwhile, I'm watching what Pres. Trump does. He was in the Midwest for the last two rallies, for tossup candidates. OH and PA are next, and they're always tossups.
How could the midwest flip? Unless Fox and FR have me grossly misinformed, life has gotten much better under Trump’s policies.
Whatever happened to that guy?
Sabato has no clue about what he is talking about. Completely wrong in the 2016 election. He is just a shrill for the Democrats.
They still don’t get it. I’m sure many voters were voting “against” Hillary, but their line of reasoning assumes that voters today are less put off by “Antifa”, the “Resist Movement”, no civility, etc., than they were by Hillary. Furthermore, Hillary and her minions haven’t exactly gone away...
As for Trump losing the Midwest... Seriously? By virtually every measure, the US economy is better than it has been in years. The only exceptions are those areas still under the (mis)management of Democrats, with almost every large, Democrat-managed city still at 25 percent-plus poverty levels and rampant crime.
The math seems to be a little off - add up all the percentages (45 + 45 + 3 + 8) and you get 101. How come?
No, the trend will hold, the base is energized, voters understand how crucial this election is.
Life across the country has been a big plus for over a year for those who work or seek work. For the layabouts, they see any improvement in the economy as a threat to their goodies. Ever wonder why most of the colleges vote for the dem rats? Because now that they are wards of the state or their parents till 26 or later, they are fearful being on their own may not be such a good thing. Yeah, if I were in college living in a plush dorm with work out centers, pools, etc just a short walk from my room, I’d probably be concerned too because I would realize once out the door, I may not be able to do that without actually earning it. Right now, racking up 100s of Ks in loans which will not ever pay off and if paid off will stop affording a home or living in decent accommodations. I know this is somewhat of a myopic look at college, but that is what I think pushes these air heads into their being lefties along with their professors who need the gravy train filling their heads with crap.
Sabato was completely wrong about the 2016 election. Chuck Todd is a fool, is wrong about just about everything every day.
These idiots get paid to be wrong all the time, nice work if you can get it.
I guess I should clarify my question - how come it totals to 101; shouldn’t it be 100%? One of those percentages should be wrong.
Sabato does his best to come across as the smartest guy in the room, yet gets it wrong on a regular basis.
Take anything Sabato says and count on the opposite happening.
The guy is a reverse weather vane.
The one thing that I'm not seeing lately on FR is as many "purists". You know the type - "There's no way that I'll ever vote for Trump because he might have said a bad word once, and he sends out tweets without calling me to approve them first", and so on. They've sort of dried up and blown away with the successes of the past couple years.
Probably a good thing, IMO.
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