Posted on 10/04/2016 3:01:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The Democrat is still favored to win, but much will depend on whether her touted organizational advantages produce results
A month after the traditional Labor Day kickoff to the campaign season, Hillary Clinton’s position in the Electoral College has eroded significantly, but The Party Crasher still rates her a solid favorite to become the nation’s 45th president in a month’s time.
After examining 19 states, as well as two congressional districts that each possess a single electoral vote, this columnist has issued 16 ratings changes since the September holiday, and every one of these changes reflects a downgrading of Clinton’s position. Nonetheless, only four of those changes indicate a flip from Democratic to Republican, and The Party Crasher’s current forecast still shows Clinton with a 322-216 advantage in the Electoral College, down from 348-190 at the last forecast.
However, it is also important to note that this forecast considers three states where Trump currently leads by less than 1 percent to be states that Clinton ultimately will win. If the current polling bears out, a shift of 30 electors in these three states would tighten the race considerably. At that point, the real-estate tycoon would need only to erase a small deficit in Florida to acquire his grandest property yet: the White House....
(Excerpt) Read more at observer.com ...
Columnist is an idiot.
Columnist is an idiot.
Most of them are in some way or another.
Hillary is essentially running as an incumbent. She has been around forever, everyone knows who she is, and she promises more Obamanation if she is elected.
Most of the undecideds end up voting against the incumbent. As a general rule, if an incumbent cannot break 50% then she is going to lose.
Who are we to believe about electoral votes?
SR 1236 – Forget MSM Polls - Trump Leads Electoral College - UPI (322 Trump-216 Clinton)
This is Jared’s paper. The liberal reporter is trying to balance his progressive wishes with his boss’ FIL.
There are some clearly bogus polls out there. But even in the well-established polls are suspect.
The following is my sense of the race, and it is not primarily based on the polls. Trump acts as though victory depends on turnout. His massive rallies and grass-roots support must get to the polls, and help get family and friends to the polls. So, encourage each other. I also think Trump thinks he can counteract the huge advantage the other side has in money by out-advertising them during few weeks of the campaign.
Clinton and her allies in the media ask as though victory depends on suppressing the turnout by Trump’s supporters by name-calling, intimidation, misdirection, declaring the race to be over. The characterization of Trump’s supporters as a basket of deplorables, irredeemable and not America reveals the deep-rooted hatred of ordinary Americans by the elites.
Looking at early voting in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, we seem to have the advantage. But, comparisons to prior years are difficult because of changes in the process.
The media is manipulated by Clinton, could the polls be manipulated too? I do not see much enthusiasm for Clinton, only in the media. What is going on? Hardly nobody at Clinton rallies, hardly no enthusiasm and who is being polled?
Consider the source:
“Cliston Brown is a communications executive and political analyst in the San Francisco Bay Area who previously served as director of communications to a longtime Democratic Representative in Washington, D.C.”
Cliston Brown is engaged in fantasy: start with a false premise and end up eating a crap sandwich.
They have Clinton winning Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado.
She will lose all of them.
Wait, what? They ignored a clip of 30 electoral votes?
Previously: 348-190 at the last forecast.
Current claim: 322-216 (ignoring 3 states with 30 votes where Trump has a 1% lead)
So that would actually be: 292-246
Pollsters say what the person who pays them wants to hear. Rare it is that the person with the money wants to hear the truth.
Election day has started in Ohio and a few other states. But Election day starts for most states on Oct 12. That is when pollsters will report that the race is tightening. They will want to motivate their ground game volunteers to GOTV.
Of course, Hillary and Dems allegedly have the ground game and apparently Trump does not have it.
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