Posted on 09/13/2016 6:38:59 PM PDT by LS
Of all the states once seen as clearly in Hillary Clinton’s column, a new survey identifies the one perhaps most likely to tip to Donald Trump — and that state is Maine.
A Colby College-Boston Globe poll released Tuesday shows the presidential race in Maine is now within the margin of error, with Clinton leading Trump, 42 percent to 39 percent.
Also significant: The poll of likely voters, conducted last week by SurveyUSA, showed only a small portion of respondents, 5 percent, remain undecided less than eight weeks before Election Day.
Trump’s ascendancy in Maine is largely due to his dominance in the vast northern sector of the state — but analysts say it’s also a reflection of how Maine, like many other parts of the country, has become geographically more polarized. Its northern reaches, mostly rural, tend to be far more conservative than the southern, populous part of the state.
“Mainers for the first time in a while have to pay attention to the statewide race for president,” said Dan Shea, a political science professor and director of the Goldfarb Center at Colby College. “The Clinton campaign can no longer take this state for granted.”
I agree. In a best case scenario, he would carry every state but those 4.
Reagan won 49 states. A 46 state landslide isn’t out of reach.
And there would be more chances of close race in CDs like FLA 2000.
Plus I think CDs would be gerrymandered to attempt to take this award by CD into account.
Maybe Hillary has Captain Trips (though
the Superflu in The Stand is a much quicker killer)
Obama won Maine by 15%, so that is a huge swing. If all states swing by 12% (and growing), this will be a realignment election.
Bloomberg today OH: Trump +5
(I think I said two weeks ago I thought OH was pretty much safe, as is FL and NC)
Sneak Peek
Based on the new polls since Saturday, things have not yet changed overall in my model. Some of these polls are reinforcing prior polls from last week that resulted in Trump improving his chances by 8%.
As of now, my model with these polls shows Trump gaining 3 electoral votes but dropping 3% in probability to 26% chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.
That said, there is movement. Last week, I showed Clinton with securing 279 electoral votes, with 166 of those as "Safe." With these new polls, Clinton drops below 270, with 269 electoral votes (162 safe). With probabilities factored in, she's expected to win 304 electoral votes right now.
The big movements right now are:
The next full report will probably come out on Saturday.
-PJ
yeah, they are changing huge: today Bloomberg has Trump +5 in OH, report on Twitter has him +2 in CO, see my post on Rush Limbaugh thread.
Two national polls have him up over 4 now.
WHY CAN’T I GET A NY POLL!!!!????
NJ SHE’S ONLY UP 4!!!
Waiting for the NC numbers to reflect. Still seems tied or Hitlery up a point or two. Commonsense says that if Trump is up in OH and FL that he is also ahead in NC.
Reuters also has it tied 39-39 in a 4 way with Trump up 9 with Independents.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-25486
I don’t buy it. In a state where Minion WON, and since then you have 25% FEWER Ds, we are to believe that Cankles (who will get an even smaller % of D votes) will take NC? No.
I see all three states as within the margin of fraud. No matter how many poll watchers there may already be, more would be better. Freepers in OH, FL, and NC could do a great service to our country by either working on Trump's GOTV (get out the vote) efforts, to increase the amount of fraud democrats would have to engage in, or working as poll watchers to make fraud harder to implement. I will be working GOTV in PA (not my state, but it's not far away, and I've worked GOTV there before, hoping they will go our way, for once) on election day.
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