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In Maine, Clinton, Trump are in a Tight Race (Trump within 3)
Boston Globe/Survey USA ^ | 9/13/2016 | James Pindell

Posted on 09/13/2016 6:38:59 PM PDT by LS

Of all the states once seen as clearly in Hillary Clinton’s column, a new survey identifies the one perhaps most likely to tip to Donald Trump — and that state is Maine.

A Colby College-Boston Globe poll released Tuesday shows the presidential race in Maine is now within the margin of error, with Clinton leading Trump, 42 percent to 39 percent.

Also significant: The poll of likely voters, conducted last week by SurveyUSA, showed only a small portion of respondents, 5 percent, remain undecided less than eight weeks before Election Day.

Trump’s ascendancy in Maine is largely due to his dominance in the vast northern sector of the state — but analysts say it’s also a reflection of how Maine, like many other parts of the country, has become geographically more polarized. Its northern reaches, mostly rural, tend to be far more conservative than the southern, populous part of the state.

“Mainers for the first time in a while have to pay attention to the statewide race for president,” said Dan Shea, a political science professor and director of the Goldfarb Center at Colby College. “The Clinton campaign can no longer take this state for granted.”


TOPICS: Maine; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; 2016swingstates; clinton; election; maine; me2016; trump
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To: BigEdLB

I agree. In a best case scenario, he would carry every state but those 4.

Reagan won 49 states. A 46 state landslide isn’t out of reach.


21 posted on 09/13/2016 10:48:45 PM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: Michael.SF.

And there would be more chances of close race in CDs like FLA 2000.
Plus I think CDs would be gerrymandered to attempt to take this award by CD into account.


22 posted on 09/14/2016 1:49:19 AM PDT by SMGFan (Sarah Michelle Gellar is on twitter @SarahMGellar -- Yes, I know, she awardinnow supports HRC :()
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To: goldstategop

Maybe Hillary has Captain Trips (though
the Superflu in The Stand is a much quicker killer)


23 posted on 09/14/2016 2:19:29 AM PDT by raccoonradio
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To: LS

Obama won Maine by 15%, so that is a huge swing. If all states swing by 12% (and growing), this will be a realignment election.


24 posted on 09/14/2016 6:37:23 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Pollster1

Bloomberg today OH: Trump +5

(I think I said two weeks ago I thought OH was pretty much safe, as is FL and NC)


25 posted on 09/14/2016 9:16:30 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS
I'm going to need to see another week of polling.

Sneak Peek

Based on the new polls since Saturday, things have not yet changed overall in my model. Some of these polls are reinforcing prior polls from last week that resulted in Trump improving his chances by 8%.

As of now, my model with these polls shows Trump gaining 3 electoral votes but dropping 3% in probability to 26% chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.

That said, there is movement. Last week, I showed Clinton with securing 279 electoral votes, with 166 of those as "Safe." With these new polls, Clinton drops below 270, with 269 electoral votes (162 safe). With probabilities factored in, she's expected to win 304 electoral votes right now.

The big movements right now are:

The next full report will probably come out on Saturday.

-PJ

26 posted on 09/14/2016 9:20:37 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

yeah, they are changing huge: today Bloomberg has Trump +5 in OH, report on Twitter has him +2 in CO, see my post on Rush Limbaugh thread.

Two national polls have him up over 4 now.


27 posted on 09/14/2016 9:32:23 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS

WHY CAN’T I GET A NY POLL!!!!????

NJ SHE’S ONLY UP 4!!!


28 posted on 09/14/2016 9:38:26 AM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: LS

Waiting for the NC numbers to reflect. Still seems tied or Hitlery up a point or two. Commonsense says that if Trump is up in OH and FL that he is also ahead in NC.


29 posted on 09/14/2016 9:40:54 AM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!)
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To: LS

Reuters also has it tied 39-39 in a 4 way with Trump up 9 with Independents.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-25486


30 posted on 09/14/2016 9:42:48 AM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!)
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To: usafa92

I don’t buy it. In a state where Minion WON, and since then you have 25% FEWER Ds, we are to believe that Cankles (who will get an even smaller % of D votes) will take NC? No.


31 posted on 09/14/2016 9:42:56 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS
(I think I said two weeks ago I thought OH was pretty much safe, as is FL and NC)

I see all three states as within the margin of fraud. No matter how many poll watchers there may already be, more would be better. Freepers in OH, FL, and NC could do a great service to our country by either working on Trump's GOTV (get out the vote) efforts, to increase the amount of fraud democrats would have to engage in, or working as poll watchers to make fraud harder to implement. I will be working GOTV in PA (not my state, but it's not far away, and I've worked GOTV there before, hoping they will go our way, for once) on election day.

32 posted on 09/14/2016 11:00:59 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)
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