Posted on 09/12/2016 10:38:38 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
For this automated poll, a sample of likely households was chosen from the population registered to vote in the state of Florida, and there were 781 completed responses to six poll questions The survey was conducted September 7-8. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 3.5%. The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 69-13-13-6% white/black/Hispanic/”other”, while the party registration of respondents was 43-39% Democratic/Republican (18% Independents). The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 40% from Central Florida, 17% from North Florida, 24% from South Florida, 16% from South Central Florida, and 3% from the “university” counties of Alachua and Leon (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis)....
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Excellent!!
hope and change baby
That’s great news. I like positive polls.
What I want to hear next is that Hillary is pulling her campaign advertising and personnel from the state. That’s when you know they’re giving up. IIRC, that happened in Ohio several weeks ago.
And most likely this was before Krankles’ “episode”.
Looking good.
And most likely this was before Krankles’ “episode”.
Uhhh...Why would you say that???
I am tired of national polls. Individual states are the only worthy ones considering we need to examine senate races.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gj7CLJbyjrk
Trump Releases Ad for Battleground States Slamming Clinton’s ‘Deplorable’ Comments
Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks during he LGBT for Hillary Gala at Cipriani Club on September 9, 2016 in New York City.
The ad will air in the key battleground states of North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Translation: It is worse then the Dems think it is!
Only 24% from the most populous region, South Florida? 40% from central? Seems a bit unrealistic to me.... though I think DJT has the edge in Florida, I think soFlo will be more than 24% of the vote.
Trump has Florida locked up, when paired with Iowa and Ohio which Trump also has locked up. Trump only needs one more pickup.
The implosion of the Clinton Campaign is beginning.
Yep.
Still oversampling Ds. I think FL is moving into the “safe Trump” column.
“Only 24% from the most populous region, South Florida?”
It’s pretty close..population wise it’s 27%..maybe the difference is registered voters. South Florida isn’t growing as fast as the rest of Florida, probably because it is pretty built out and the cost real estate is through the roof.
Central Florida takes in a lot of counties...it’s a very wide belt from East to West coast and depending how it is defined, can include Sarasota, Bradenton, Pasco along with Tampa Bay, Orlando and the East Coast down to just north of Palm Beach County.
Florida is three regions - very, very different regions.
South Florida = Miami-Palm Beach-Tampa
Heavily democrat, ex NYC and ex-NJ democrats who will bleed blue and union memories and immigrant/jewish traditions
You MUST weight them differently than the others.
Middle FL (the highway and tourist region from outside Tampa across the state through Orlando over to Daytona Beach.
Mixed people, many new to the state, about a 50-50 mix politically.
North FL and Panhandle.
North of Tampa, the central mining districts and the “cowboy” part of the Everglades and central hills.
Very conservative, but fewer people than the other two.
80-20 conservative mix, very few newcomers at all. Very few “new” people to the state.
I disagree. I am a Trump supporter so get off the bridge and don’t jump! I thought 43-39 D-R was fair. The racial breakdown again was fair. Look Trump is firmly up the base and now moving into the democratic bases. Every point of that base he takes away, the harder Hillary will find it to win. Then too she will turn on her charm and love for America. That is the October surprise, love and charm to all America not just Wall Street and big foreign contributors to the Clinton Laundromat.
I agree. It will probably be on the close side still, but I do believe he will win FL, OH, and IA. Any other state over 10 electoral votes, like PA, VA, or MI, will get him to the finish line, so long as he keeps Romney’s states. If he doesn’t win one of these big states though he can make up for it with a combo of small swing states: NV (6 EVs), NH (4), WI (10), CO (9), ME2 (1).
I guess you may be right. Just seems odd to me. Central has a lot of rural areas.
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