Posted on 04/22/2016 2:32:50 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.
Whats left now?
California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.
Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.
Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.
Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.
Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.
Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27
The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.
The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.
Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
This would be great news if it plays out like this.
All I am calling for is the status quo ante. The situation from the Dawn of Time up to about Four Weeks Ago.
I thought posts from “The Onion” were not permitted on FR.
“And finally, children, this is why you should stay of the pipe.”
Amazing how people like this never got the message that "Things you post on the Internet are forever."
“All I am calling for is the status quo ante. The situation from the Dawn of Time up to about Four Weeks Ago.”
No, you certainly are not. Intersexed Humans have been using gender non-conforming habits since the prehistoric ages, and here you are now proclaiming how you want to be oblivious to the reality of Human biology and police bathrooms on the basis of a fictitious binomial genitalia. You deserve to be put in charge of the very kind of policing in the rest rooms you are demanding so you can personally come face to face with the realities of Human biology.
As I posted on another Thread about this topic yesterday, I thought Trump was simply looking at the NC Law from a Businessman’s viewpoint.
Apparently, I was correct. I hadn’t seen the entire quote in context, just heard bit and pieces.
Thanks for Posting it. This whole thing is a Nothingburger with Cheese and extra Mayo. I can’t wait for this Primary Season to end.
Disclaimer: Former Cruzer now leaning Trump who will Vote for any Republican against any DemoncRat come November.
He hasn't released them. You missed that?
The various states have control over their delegates.
Rubio hasn’t released any delegates, which is what you were lying about.
Cruz Winning Over Unbound Rubio Delegates
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/622552/cruz-winning-over-unbound-rubio-delegates
There will be no second ballot. I know that Cruz has spent his entire short senate career preparing for a contested convention presidential run, but all the willpower and all the razzle-dazzle number juggling in the world isn’t going to make it happen if it’s not in the cards. And it’s not in the cards.
Cruz still hasn’t figured out the target is Hillary not Trump. Meanwhile, Trump vaporized two more issues that Clinton can’t come at him over.
It is human nature to want to be ‘seen’ with a winner, especially if you’re a party insider looking for advancement. A winner is someone who has cross-market appeal.
Trump is up 2-1. He’s about to go 3-1. That’s a majority of states, btw - another checkpoint Cruz can’t reach. And while Cruz channels Hysterical Hanna, Trump is cucumber cool. The 10 caboose states that are left are no fools. You think the remaining voters don’t see which way the wind is blowing? Even Rio Linda can figure it out.
Cruz may well be courting them, but that's an entirely different subject. You are wholly dishonest, just like your reptilian charlatan Cruz.
2ndDivisionVet sez: (Don’t care if he was born in a manger on July 4th! A “Natural Born” citizen requires two US parents!)
Being bathed in the love makes it worthwhile to come here.
Someone drowns in a tub nearly every day in America
"An American drowns nearly every day in a bathtub, hot tub or spa...The study found 1,676 Americans were reported to have drowned in a tub during this five-year period, an average of 335 a year. Infants, very young children and the elderly are at risk, but more than half of all tub deaths are among able-bodied people between the ages of 5 and 64."
What’s up is down and what is down is up at Redstate.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.