Posted on 04/09/2016 10:00:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
After Cruz’ smashing win in Wisconsin, it’s on to New York. Will the Empire State break Cruz’ momentum and give Trump back his lead?
The key lies in the rules. Fourteen of New York’s ninety-five delegates will be elected at large and there remaining eighty-one will be chosen with three allocated to each of the twenty-seven congressional districts.
If a candidate gets fifty plus percent of the vote statewide or in any congressional district, he gets all the delegates statewide or in any such district. But if he falls short of fifty percent, he gets only a proportionate share of the fourteen delegates chosen at large. And, if he falls short of the fifty percent threshold in any district, but nevertheless finishes first, he gets two of the three delegates and the second place finisher gets one delegate from that district.
So, for Donald Trump, the key question is: Will he finish over 50%? If he does, he will win all 95 delegates at stake. But if he falls consistently short of 50% in each district, he will surrender at least 27 delegates to Cruz or Kasich, whoever finishes second.
The difference between winning 95 delegates and 68 is, for Trump, enormous. His ability to win on the first ballot could well be at stake.
The most recent poll, by CBS News/U Gov on April 1 showed Trump at 52% with Cruz at 21% and Kasich at 20%. If Trump should fall below 50% in districts across the state, he may lose at least 27 critically needed votes.
The irony of the New York State delegate selection process is that each congressional district gets three delegates. I doesn’t matter if the district is a Democratic or Republican district, they still get three votes at the GOP convention. In Republican districts upstate and in the suburbs, hundreds of thousands of voters will decide the allocation of the district’s three delegates. But in Democratic districts, particularly in minority areas, a tiny turnout, perhaps of only twenty or thirty thousand will decide the district’s allocation.
A total of 191,000 registered Republicans live in districts represented by an African-American or Latino congressmen. The districts’ Republican registration is as follows:
5 CD = 54,000 7 CD = 28,000 8 CD = 34,000 9 CD = 31,000 13 CD = 27,000 15 CD = 17,000
Total = 191,000
If the Republicans in these districts choose to reject Trump, they can have a vastly disproportionate pact, possibly denying him twelve delegates (two each) from the six minority districts. Add this to one each (the loser’s share) of the other twenty-one districts and Trump could lose as many as 33 of New York’s 95 delegates, a key setback.
Will Cruz be able to do it? Will Kasich? Cruz has the advantage both because of his incredible Wisconsin wipeout but also because he is the only candidate with money. Kasich doesn’t have much and Trump has shown himself unwilling to dig deep into his personal fortune.
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From post # 3, a twitter comment:
https://twitter.com/kimjgoodwin/status/718198390006423552
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Earwitness to Priebus saying ‘use the Diebold machines to keep Trump under 50% in NY’
Thanks, Wildhighlander57.
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Just amazing! Scummy devious Priebus!
It is important to keep creepy Cruz under 20 percent overall in New York then trump gets them all anyway.
That's not the latest poll and it is the one with Cruz too high. The other N.Y. polls have Trump at 64%, 54%, 54% ( that's the latest one ) and this one at 52%. None of the other polls have Cruz higher than 17% or 18%, with some MUCH lower and all of them have him in THIRD place, with KaSICKO constantly in second place.
TRUE !
I haven't seen one poll, with Trump below 52% and that's the lowest figure, with higher numbers in all of the other polls. And in NO poll, except the one quoted in the article, which I have NOT seen before, is Cruz in any spot but THIRD place.
Brooklyn really wasn't that much better and he looked ridiculous rolling out Matzo dough.
Brooklyn really wasn't that much better and he looked ridiculous rolling out Matzo dough.
“It’s up to you, New York, New York!”
Especially after King Andrew Cuomo stripped NY State’s Second Amendment, Cruz supporters in New York should call NY talk shows, and let 2nd Amendment patriots know that TED CRUZ was lead counsel to fight for and WIN the Washington, D.C. versus Heller case, which helped at least 30 states, as well as Washington, D.C..
“On his Senate webpage, he lists six cases that established “landmark national victories”:
(snip)
The Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms;..”
I’m from NY State and I was NOT insulted by Ted Cruz.
Ted wasn’t talking about folks like me, he was talking about people like Chuck Schumer, former Gov. Spitzer, and Gov. Cuomo, who doesn’t want pro-lifers like me to even stay in NY State.
That Twitter/video comment needs to be forwarded by email to RNC with NO TRUMP NO VOTE many many many times.
Would you repeat it with the RNC email address that was floating around this week
CONTACT THE RNC
Republican National Committee
310 First Street, SE
Washington, DC 20003
Phone 202-863-8500
FAX 202-863-8820
EMAIL info@gop.com.
<><> Visit the Republican National Committee Facebook page
<><> Contact Your State GOP---Visit their online homepage
JUST GET THE WORD OUT EVEN IF YOU HAVE TO USE CARRIER PIGEON.
That’s pretty interesting statement that Trump is not willing to put his personal money in this. But he does have his PACS. It will be an interesting day for sure.
I think it’s more likely going to be about the 10 range with the range from 5-15.
What is left out of the calculus here is the margin that Trump has. Assuming he breaks 50%, he should sweep every CD in a 3-way race.
To get to 30, Trump would have to be held under 50% and lose in a handful of CDs.
Trump is an icon here and even in these “minority districts,” you’re going to find a few people that work for him. Cruz should be a non-factor. Kasich could be a bit of a wild card.
Why do ya think they refuse to have a paper trail of all votes?
Makes it harder to change votes.
I would add that the base should tell the vermin at the RNC, screw with Trump’s supporters and nomination and the base’s pledge is no donations, no volunteers; NADA nothing ever again, we’re changing to Independent, case closed! Then RNC can go pound sand.
Your additions just about nail the GOPe coffin shut tight.
Good contact info/reminder.
The RNC/GOP folks...from National on down, will be getting postcards from me.
I am so sick of their dirty tricks.
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