Posted on 03/26/2016 1:58:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The smooth nature of major-party presidential nominations in the primary era has produced a general electorate that remains blissfully unaware of how they work in practice. For the past 60-plus years, neither party has needed more than one ballot to nominate a candidate, although it has come close for both -- 1976 for Republicans, 1984 for Democrats. Most Americans just assume that primaries and caucuses produce delegate allocations that remain bound to a candidate, and that the voting in each state will determine the nominee.
That's ... not always the case. The close race in the Republican nomination contest may come down to a handful of delegates who have no legal requirement to vote for the candidate selected in their state. All three candidates are conducting a parallel -- and critical -- pursuit of unbound delegates, a primary within the primary that could determine whether the GOP will need to go past a first ballot for the first time in more than 70 years:
While Donald Trump holds a healthy lead in the race, there's still a decent chance he will fall short of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, meaning the GOP convention could be contested for the first time in 40 years.
Trump, as well as his two rivals, Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich, are assiduously preparing for that possibility. Aside from courting delegates who could become free agents during the convention, campaigns are also engaging in the tedious task of turning out their supporters at state and local conventions around the county in the coming months to fill delegate slots. ...
But in some places, delegates have the ability to choose any candidate they want from the start. The biggest pots of these types of delegates fall in Colorado and Pennsylvania.
In Colorado, where Republicans decided not to hold a presidential nominating contest this cycle, 34 of the 37 delegates will be elected at the state convention April 9. The other three are the Colorado GOP chairman and the state's two RNC members, all of whom will remain uncommitted until the July convention.
Pennsylvania's upcoming primary elects delegates directly without binding them to a particular candidate. Between Pennsylvania and Colorado, that puts 88 delegates up for grabs, and all three remaining campaigns are wooing those delegates to gain more traction in Cleveland. But those aren't the only prizes available, National Journal's Alex Rogers and Adam Wollner remind us; Marco Rubio had 166 delegates before he withdrew, and the majority of those will come to Cleveland as free agents, too.
We could see as many as 150 unbound delegates or more come to the convention, free to cast their first-ballot vote as they please. That's more than 10% of the number needed to win a majority. It won't matter if one candidate comes to Cleveland with a majority of bound delegates, but that might be a tough feat for either Trump or Cruz. And the delegate allocations thus far aren't necessarily firm either, as Team Trump discovered in Louisiana:
Donald Trump beat Sen. Ted Cruz earlier this month in Louisiana's Republican presidential primary by 3.6 percentage points, but the Texan may wind up with as many as 10 more delegates from the state than the businessman.
Mr. Cruz's supporters also seized five of Louisiana's six slots on the three powerful committees that will write the rules and platform at the Republican National Convention and mediate disputes over delegates' eligibility this summer in Cleveland.
The little-noticed inside maneuvering that led to this outcome in Louisiana is another dramatic illustration of the inside game that could have an outsize influence on the bitter race for the GOP nomination. A similar process played out three weeks ago in Coweta County, Ga.
None of this gamesmanship is new, by the way. Ron Paul's movement took advantage of these same mechanisms in 2012 to snag delegates in some caucus states away from Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, including here in Minnesota. (I attended the state convention where that took place.) Romney's delegates controlled the Rules Committee, which passed Rule 40 to deal with the situation by requiring a candidate to have a majority of delegates in eight states to have his or her name placed in nomination. That squelched their hopes of hijacking the convention, but it still shows the importance of organization in dealing with close conventions.
Most of the time, these machinations would mean nothing. It won't mean anything for the Democrats this year, because Hillary Clinton will come into Philadelphia with a large majority over Bernie Sanders, even apart from the superdelegates. In close races, though, the ability to work the system becomes very important.
As Scott Rasmussen reminds us at Styrk, that's only true if Cruz can keep Trump from a majority before the final primaries on June 7th:
For any of this to matter requires one big assumption-Ted Cruz will have to find a way to beat Donald Trump in the remaining states. Cruz currently trails Trump by 274 delegates. If he can win just over half of the nearly 1,000 remaining delegates, he will pull to within 200 delegates of Trump's total heading into the Primary of the Unbound Delegates.
In that scenario, Cruz could enter the convention in first place by winning about two-thirds of the unpledged delegates. Given the nature of those delegates, that's not an unreasonable goal. Some come from states where Cruz did well. Others were initially pledged to candidates who prefer Cruz over Trump. It's even possible that the unbound delegates could deliver a first ballot victory to the Texas Senator.
That's what the numbers tell us, but the voters will decide if it's what they want. The only way that Ted Cruz can win the nomination is to defeat Donald Trump in the remaining primaries. If he can't do that, the unbound delegates are unlikely to save him.
Not just unlikely, but darned near impossible. Not all of those unbound delegates will reject Trump, after all, and if the frontrunner comes in a few dozen shy of 1237, there will be a very big impulse to go along with the momentum and back Trump for the nomination. If he's significantly short, however, all bets are off -- and the fun begins in Cleveland.
I find it interesting the last two times this was done, the party doing it lost the general election.. I guess republicans want to lose in 2016. They aren’t called the stupid party for nothing.
If any of the candidates win fairly, I will be supporting that candidate. If they republican party doesn’t reflect the will of those that have voted, I will not be supporting them.
The republican party better realize they better not pull another Mississippi on us.
Cruz is playing with fire now.
He is running this contest to try to force a run-off, but if he does that, he himself won’t be picked as the candidate, the candidate will be a failed “mainstream” guy.
It is time for Cruz and Trump to get back together, and wrap this race up. Trump is winning. He needs to be supported against Hillary now, Cruz needs to support Trump, stand down, and then run again next time.
In the meantime, get Cruz a good job with the new administration.
For sure.
Very good article. Thanks for posting it.
I love when people sign up here and are instantly political experts and insiders. Way back when, new sign ups walked small and felt their way around the place before assuming they were on par with people who had been here years or even decades. Or are you an operative in real life?
Keep threatening me. It makes me laugh. If I’m ever banned here, it won’t have anything to do with “JoSixChip” and your compadres, I assure you.
Dude.
I am Cringing Negativism Network. I have been a FReeper since 2005. I am using this handle, while I am currently on sabbatical in Asia.
We in fact were in pretty close contact, while I was using my previous handle.
:D
You’re supporting a guy, who is being used by the establishment to go after Trump, who in my opinion is exactly who we need to have running this time.
Time for Cruz to stand down. You have supported him strongly this time, but he himself won’t win this race. We’ll end up with an establishment stand-in.
Stand down.
>>> I find it interesting the last two times this was done, the party doing it lost the general election..
More than 2 times. Brokered conventions have only happened 6 (or is it 8) times in American history, I read. In all cases but one, that party lost. The one time it won was when the other party also had a brokered convention the same year (thus, one of them had to win).
It would be interesting to know if the leading plurality vote getter was ever nominated by his party or if they always chose a safe loser instead.
Therefore, it seems that a brokered convention is a nuclear option for a party to give up hopes for the presidency and opt for the insiders retaining power. It makes me really despise especially Romney, but Cruz and Kasich are clearly doing the establishment’s bidding, and have lost any prior respect I may have had.
If Trump ends up just shy of the magic number, and the party screws him, I will cease being a lifelong Republican at that point.
With 2000 Trump and Cruz delegates, where would the mainstream guy get votes?
The idea of double-agent delegates happens every convention, and might work if 100 or 200 sleepers were needed, but the probable delegate breakdown would require 600 or 700 delegate flips from Trump/Cruz to new candidate X.
If you truly are CNN, you’ll remember that I’ve been FReepmailing you Trump articles since before he declared his candidacy, so I’m not anti-Trump like so many of his slavish followers think I am. Having said that, I don’t think we should coronate anybody until they’ve at least reached 1,237.
I was curious where you went. Nice to hear from you.
It will be the Trump convention. They take it away and either the Gope goes third party or Trump does....It won't matter. Trump wins big.
SUCK ON IT you stoopid CRUZHOLES and Gope anal remoras.
If those sites were verboten they’d be fixed so you couldn’t post them here, like VDare is. And I’ve never posted anything from Democratic Underground, and you know I haven’t. And speaking of Red State, how about that crap site Conservative Treehouse that the Trumpets love so much? What a POS!
I fully recognize and admit Cruz (and you frankly also) have been formidable opponents this time.
:D
While we ended up with opposing candidates this time around, I fully commend your advocating strongly, and ceaselessly for your guy. I really do.
But Trump is winning now. It is time for you to stand down, throw your support to Trump, we can work out a good position for your guy go-forward, and the establishment will lose.
That is what we both want.
You have run an admirable campaign, but Trump is winning. If your guy manages to mess that up, then someone else will end up the candidate - probably someone like Romney and we will all be royally PO’ed.
Stand down.
There’s that “civility” that Jim was asking for...
Thanks.
I am using unsecured logins, while away, so I decided to just run with a completely new handle at the moment.
Sorry for any confusion this caused.
Are you implying that I have a say in what the Cruz campaign does or doesn’t do? Dude, I’m a disabled veteran shut-in in a mobile home. LOL
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