Posted on 03/26/2016 1:58:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The smooth nature of major-party presidential nominations in the primary era has produced a general electorate that remains blissfully unaware of how they work in practice. For the past 60-plus years, neither party has needed more than one ballot to nominate a candidate, although it has come close for both -- 1976 for Republicans, 1984 for Democrats. Most Americans just assume that primaries and caucuses produce delegate allocations that remain bound to a candidate, and that the voting in each state will determine the nominee.
That's ... not always the case. The close race in the Republican nomination contest may come down to a handful of delegates who have no legal requirement to vote for the candidate selected in their state. All three candidates are conducting a parallel -- and critical -- pursuit of unbound delegates, a primary within the primary that could determine whether the GOP will need to go past a first ballot for the first time in more than 70 years:
While Donald Trump holds a healthy lead in the race, there's still a decent chance he will fall short of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, meaning the GOP convention could be contested for the first time in 40 years.
Trump, as well as his two rivals, Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich, are assiduously preparing for that possibility. Aside from courting delegates who could become free agents during the convention, campaigns are also engaging in the tedious task of turning out their supporters at state and local conventions around the county in the coming months to fill delegate slots. ...
But in some places, delegates have the ability to choose any candidate they want from the start. The biggest pots of these types of delegates fall in Colorado and Pennsylvania.
In Colorado, where Republicans decided not to hold a presidential nominating contest this cycle, 34 of the 37 delegates will be elected at the state convention April 9. The other three are the Colorado GOP chairman and the state's two RNC members, all of whom will remain uncommitted until the July convention.
Pennsylvania's upcoming primary elects delegates directly without binding them to a particular candidate. Between Pennsylvania and Colorado, that puts 88 delegates up for grabs, and all three remaining campaigns are wooing those delegates to gain more traction in Cleveland. But those aren't the only prizes available, National Journal's Alex Rogers and Adam Wollner remind us; Marco Rubio had 166 delegates before he withdrew, and the majority of those will come to Cleveland as free agents, too.
We could see as many as 150 unbound delegates or more come to the convention, free to cast their first-ballot vote as they please. That's more than 10% of the number needed to win a majority. It won't matter if one candidate comes to Cleveland with a majority of bound delegates, but that might be a tough feat for either Trump or Cruz. And the delegate allocations thus far aren't necessarily firm either, as Team Trump discovered in Louisiana:
Donald Trump beat Sen. Ted Cruz earlier this month in Louisiana's Republican presidential primary by 3.6 percentage points, but the Texan may wind up with as many as 10 more delegates from the state than the businessman.
Mr. Cruz's supporters also seized five of Louisiana's six slots on the three powerful committees that will write the rules and platform at the Republican National Convention and mediate disputes over delegates' eligibility this summer in Cleveland.
The little-noticed inside maneuvering that led to this outcome in Louisiana is another dramatic illustration of the inside game that could have an outsize influence on the bitter race for the GOP nomination. A similar process played out three weeks ago in Coweta County, Ga.
None of this gamesmanship is new, by the way. Ron Paul's movement took advantage of these same mechanisms in 2012 to snag delegates in some caucus states away from Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, including here in Minnesota. (I attended the state convention where that took place.) Romney's delegates controlled the Rules Committee, which passed Rule 40 to deal with the situation by requiring a candidate to have a majority of delegates in eight states to have his or her name placed in nomination. That squelched their hopes of hijacking the convention, but it still shows the importance of organization in dealing with close conventions.
Most of the time, these machinations would mean nothing. It won't mean anything for the Democrats this year, because Hillary Clinton will come into Philadelphia with a large majority over Bernie Sanders, even apart from the superdelegates. In close races, though, the ability to work the system becomes very important.
As Scott Rasmussen reminds us at Styrk, that's only true if Cruz can keep Trump from a majority before the final primaries on June 7th:
For any of this to matter requires one big assumption-Ted Cruz will have to find a way to beat Donald Trump in the remaining states. Cruz currently trails Trump by 274 delegates. If he can win just over half of the nearly 1,000 remaining delegates, he will pull to within 200 delegates of Trump's total heading into the Primary of the Unbound Delegates.
In that scenario, Cruz could enter the convention in first place by winning about two-thirds of the unpledged delegates. Given the nature of those delegates, that's not an unreasonable goal. Some come from states where Cruz did well. Others were initially pledged to candidates who prefer Cruz over Trump. It's even possible that the unbound delegates could deliver a first ballot victory to the Texas Senator.
That's what the numbers tell us, but the voters will decide if it's what they want. The only way that Ted Cruz can win the nomination is to defeat Donald Trump in the remaining primaries. If he can't do that, the unbound delegates are unlikely to save him.
Not just unlikely, but darned near impossible. Not all of those unbound delegates will reject Trump, after all, and if the frontrunner comes in a few dozen shy of 1237, there will be a very big impulse to go along with the momentum and back Trump for the nomination. If he's significantly short, however, all bets are off -- and the fun begins in Cleveland.
Why not link your orginal thread from back on Feb. 14, 2016 for them to see and help
clear this up for them.
No but you’re a good guy, I support any number of things you do, I am just saying it is time for the two of them to get back together and run a brand new administration for we the people.
You’re a good guy. Cruz is too, probably. There is plenty of room in the new Administration for the two of them to be a part of our new leadership.
:D
All I am saying is, it is time to win this thing. Now. We do not want the establishment to yet again appoint someone.
No way.
Either Trump wins outright, or the GOP dies, replaced with something else. Something that actually stands for something.
I understand why you feel that way. What happened, did you lose your password?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3397104/posts
(good idea)
And to 2ndDivisionVet I actually posted one post (before) posting that original one, to you, letting you know I had changed handles.
But that one apparently got deleted.
Yet you were actually the first person I contacted to say I had changed handles, 2ndDivisionVet.
:D
All the best.
No, I am using unsecured logins for the time being.
Just changed for this trip.
Regards
Shenanigans=scorched earth voting by millions of pisssed off Trump supporters.The rest of this is academic.
If the gop wishes to commit upballot and down ballot suicide, so be it.
They’re playing with matches. The common core math being used by the gop isn’t considering the down ticket revenge that will be wreaked by scorched earth/ kamikaze voting on the part of pissed off Trump supporters if jilted out of the nom.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Bad convention news for both Trump AND Cruz:
“Erica Werner ;@ericawerner · Mar 24
Something I learned today: @PeteSessions will serve as Parliamentarian at the GOP convention”
So Ryan as Chairman and Pete Sessions (the bad Sessions) is Parliamentarian - the Cheap Labor Express is taking no chances.
This is how it works.
Trump: Waaaah Waaaah not fair.
Hi, visit here but just signed up. Just ran across this on the Net. I’ve been saying for months they’re going to try to steal the election from Trump. Bottom line - Jones is saying they are going to cancel our popular vote. I wondered how Trump could win Louisiana but Cruz ended up with more delegates!
http://www.infowars.com/live-now-us-presidential-election-cancelled/
It’s my understanding that the delegates get to vote on the rules for THIS convention once they get to the convention. So the rules from previous conventions, such as binding rules for delegates, aren’t necessarily applicable. They can change the rules once they get to the convention to favor whatever candidate they want to win. Thus, the reason Cruz and Kasich are still in it, and the reason Cruz and Kasich are courting Rubio’s former delegates and so forth. They could even vote to make all delegates UNBOUND on the first vote.
Therefore, we all better hope that whoever is leading by convention time has a LOT more votes than 2nd place.
Actually disregarding the new temporary Republicans that signed on to vote for Trump (libertarians, independents and disaffected Democrats) I don't think Trump has near 50% of the Republican votes and being that this is the Republican party some might say that Trumpkins are after hijacking the GOP.
Now I know that the GOP could use more members like the types mentioned above but Trump should do more than pay lip service to GOP ideals and should Trump get close to becoming the candidate I am interested in seeing what type of "deal" Trump makes with the party and whether or not it pisses off his base.
He is running to win on the 2nd ballot (if there is one) and he can do it where Trump can't.
I do not agree.
If there is a second ballot, the entire establishment will be for someone like Romney.
They are only for Cruz as long as he is the one who can oppose Trump. They will completely abandon him, if there is a runoff.
Neither one will win.
You’re right in that Trump supporters have little loyalty or affection for the gop. And that’s really bad news for the gop. Because that increases the likelihood of them being willing to retaliate.
Bigger picture, this is just the chickens coming home to roost for the gop and rats who together have made it impossible for a viable second or third party to get off the ground. In other countries “trumpism” would express itself within another political party. We’d have elections, a coalition government would be formed, and we would go on our merry way. Having eliminated that possibility here, the two factions of the uniparty have no one to blame but themselves for any hostile takeover attempts.
I personally belive that there will be a deal. Probably along the lines of 1980 where GHWB got foisted onto Reagan. Kasich is a possibility as is someone like Walker. I doubt any deal will have a philosophical dimension: this has nothing to do with conservatism, only whether the existing power brokers get to continue on.
If no deal is made, it means that the gop faction has decided to throw the election at the Presidential level anyways. The “trumpkins” as you so termed them will likely respond accordingly.
It will be a GOP platform, GOP Money, GOP data base and GOP organization. Trump will have a very big "deal" to make.
If Trump loses he will be on to some other project I don't see him as a martyr leading a 3rd party into the wilderness. There will be millions of leaderless suckers left to SUCK ON IT
Perhaps times are a changing....the “old order” doesn’t quite matter as much?
I think Cruz will instill enough loyalty to hold his delegates past the first ballot and I think he can grab enough delegates from the candidates who suspended and even Trump to get the 1,237. Trump seems to think his dialog with delegates is over and shows that he is an amateur at politics. I think someone like Walker will be put in nomination before a 3rd ballot if Cruz fails.
The much discussed Rule 40 as currently written would prevent anyone but Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz from having their name placed in nomination. Even if the winner is not decided on the first ballot, their is no provision for anyone to have their name placed in nomination after balloting begins. Granted, the rule could be changed before balloting begins, but the rules committee will be controlled by delegates loyal (not necessarily bound) to one of the non establishment candidates. In the unlikely event a rule change was approved to allow a candidate with no or only a few bound delegates to have their name placed in nomination, the state laws regarding binding of delegates would still be in effect. That being the case, only two candidates would have sufficient numbers of bound delegates to reach the necessary majority by picking up unbound delegates from the available pool.
The old phrase "You can't get there from here" is applicable to the idea of a Romney, Bush, or other establishment candidate galloping in on a white horse to seize the nomination.
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