Posted on 01/27/2016 1:17:50 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
A new Monmouth University poll shows Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz among likely Iowa Republican caucus goers, but low turnout in Monday's caucus could hurt his chances of winning.
Thirty percent of likely caucus goers said they supported Trump, while 23 percent said they supported Cruz. While Cruz's support is just one point behind what he received in Monmouth's December poll, Trump's support has grown from 19 percent that month. It is the businessman's best showing in a Monmouth Iowa caucus poll since he entered the race.
The poll found Marco Rubio receiving 16 percent support, Ben Carson receiving 10 percent support, and all other candidates drawing less than 5 percent support.
Cruz performs better among Republicans who have voted in state primary elections before, leading that group by 5 percentage points over Trump. His supporters are very high among those who haven't taken part in party elections: He receives 44 percent of support among Republicans who have voted in just the general election and 50 percent support among independents who say they are planning to attend the Republican caucus. Rubio is the second most successful candidate among non-primary GOP voters, getting 20 percent of their support....
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
We’ll see what effect Cruz’s vaunted ground game has.
and in other news...
water still wet
sun still hot
more at 11.
Ted Cruz favorability plunges 16 points since war with Trump.
Trump is not omnipotent. Its more likely Cruz’s stand against ethanol, along with the governor condemning him as a consequence, caused him to lose support.
Tune in next week for more hard-hitting segments from the Department of the Blatantly Obvious.
The intel has it that Trump has at least 2 captains per caucus which translates to 3500 Trump people hustling the business.
Huge rallies matter (did I win?). It’s not just the attendance it’s teh fact that at most of these rallies folks have to stand outside in the bitter cold for hours to get in the door. Don’t tell me those people will stay home on caucus night because it’s cold or snowing. Trump’s going to have a huge turnout.
I just hope Trump’s military caucus works well for him. If he can get every military person from Iowa to caucus around the World, that could be the difference between 2nd and 1st. Or maybe Trump won’t need them and comes in first anyway. Time will tell.
First I’ve seen of this Monmouth poll. Another 7 point lead.
Hold on. Hold on. Let me write this down.
Actual turnout is the key to an election.
Important. Got it.
Gee turnout is essential to winning elections? Wow! who would have thought that? Wow how profound!!
Yep, GOTV is most important.
Des Moines, Iowa weather for Monday, Feb. 1, 2016
Looks good statewide so the Caucus turn out
shouldn’t be impacted by weather.
High 37%
Low 29%
Rain 10% chance
Lack of turn-out!
That is what happened to Romney. And McCain.
Who’da’thunk’it?
If they could have gotten more turn-out, they might have won.
Or it could be that all those masses that turned out for their rallies decided to stay home on election day.
Trump wins by 15 points, minimum.
Hahahahaha! I’m gonna be loving February 2nd.
The realization that Fox news is no longer a fair and balance organization. The network is hard core liberals and they fear Trump. Fox should be boycotted by conservatives.
Trump is giving every caucus attendee for him free casino chips and rounds of golf at his resorts.
He’s a lock.
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