Posted on 12/28/2015 2:01:53 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest poll shows Ted Cruz opening his lead over Donald Trump in Iowa to nine points — nine points. If Cruz does indeed win in the Iowa caucuses on February 1, he’ll have enough momentum going into the February 9 New Hampshire primary to place second or third. The next primary will take place on February 20 in South Carolina, where the GOP primary voters are deeply conservative — and, I suspect, likely to give Cruz first place. Three days later the caucuses in Nevada will take place. Receiving little attention in the press, this event will be determined largely by organization on the ground — giving the advantage to Cruz once again.
Which brings us to March 1 and Super Tuesday, when two states will hold GOP caucuses and another ten — including southern states, where Cruz polls well, and his home state of Texas — will hold primaries. If by then Cruz has indeed won Iowa, done well in New Hampshire, and won again in South Carolina, then on Super Tuesday he’s likely to prove dominant.
It stands to reason that Marco Rubio will do well in the Florida primary on March 15 — but it could all be over by then.
All this is predicated, again, on Cruz’s winning in Iowa five weeks from now — and that makes five weeks in which anything might happen, including a collapse in his numbers. But as of now it looks to me as if Ted Cruz will indeed win in Iowa — and that the scenario I sketched out above is entirely plausible.
Dec. 14-17, 2015
http://www.scribd.com/doc/293729658/CBS-News-December-2015-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa
going way out on a limb here: after Iowa, it will be Trump and Cruz
Show me one other poll where Cruz is betting Trump and you might have a point.
Liberall ideological purity seems to get libs elected in both the Democratic and Republican parties with regulaity.
“But I find him to be too bombastic and a blowhard.”
Do you think you are going to change DC by being soft-spoken and coy?
“Now Cruz is my pick as he knows the Constitution and wants it to be the law of the land again.”
So? That’s it? At what point are Cruz people going to realize that this isnt a simple matter of a friendly nudge away from what Obama has done?
This needs to be jerked back HARD. We dont have years and years for Cruz to pretend like he’s James Madison and give a college course on the constitution. Either the next guy goes to war or they are wasting our time. And that means being really bombastic and a huge BLOWHARD.
That “quiet humility” crap conservatives keep slobbering over is not going to cut it.
Okay, I will say that it will be Trump or Cruz, or maybe Cruz or Trump. But I can say fairly safely it won’t be bush, christie, carson, paul, fiorina, rubio, huckabee or who is left?
Cruz will win IA by double digits, more if other candidates drop out before then.
Trump will never cross 27%. On the ground reports currently see him struggling to get over 20%.
When that happens it will be interesting to see Trump’s speech and whether he goes off on IA calling the voters stupid in a moment that makes Dean’s “I have a Scream Speech” look chummy and good-natured, or he “fires” himself and ednorses Cruz. It’s 50/50 depending on what his mood is.
Another “Constitution is dead, we need a Dictator as leader” ping
“Another “Constitution is dead, we need a Dictator as leader†ping”
Good grief, it’s like some of you cant even read!
No, genius, that is NOT what I said.
“Trump strikes me as a loose cannon with a small conservative tendency. Cruz IS a conservative.”
I like Cruz a LOT, but don’t make him the hero of conservatism. He happily authored the bill to give fast track to Obola, all but guaranteeing that TPP cannot be stopped.
Cruz is the best, but even he has done things that make me think he bears very close watching and not unbridled trust.
SC is still conservative compared to New England and the Left Coast but it will be a purple state like North Carolina in about eight years. Changing demographics make for destiny.
Not everywhere, but potentially conservative enough for it to be a problem for him.
He thought that statewide they were conservative enough that he chose to run right, and it worked.
As Iowa is a caucus state, is out come more dependent on getting backers to the meeting rather than overall popularity (polls)?
No recent Republican President has won the nomination without Iowa.
Reagan lost it in the primary, but won it soundly in the general.
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Trump was never really in the race. Iowa will prove that fact resoundingly.
I think it’s significant that they don’t divulge who did the poll. Quinnypeeyack again?
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Trump will run and hide under the table after Iowa
I’m a little shocked at Freepers who are not just supporting Trump but actually attacking or insulting Ted Cruz.
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