Posted on 12/28/2015 2:01:53 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest poll shows Ted Cruz opening his lead over Donald Trump in Iowa to nine points — nine points. If Cruz does indeed win in the Iowa caucuses on February 1, he’ll have enough momentum going into the February 9 New Hampshire primary to place second or third. The next primary will take place on February 20 in South Carolina, where the GOP primary voters are deeply conservative — and, I suspect, likely to give Cruz first place. Three days later the caucuses in Nevada will take place. Receiving little attention in the press, this event will be determined largely by organization on the ground — giving the advantage to Cruz once again.
Which brings us to March 1 and Super Tuesday, when two states will hold GOP caucuses and another ten — including southern states, where Cruz polls well, and his home state of Texas — will hold primaries. If by then Cruz has indeed won Iowa, done well in New Hampshire, and won again in South Carolina, then on Super Tuesday he’s likely to prove dominant.
It stands to reason that Marco Rubio will do well in the Florida primary on March 15 — but it could all be over by then.
All this is predicated, again, on Cruz’s winning in Iowa five weeks from now — and that makes five weeks in which anything might happen, including a collapse in his numbers. But as of now it looks to me as if Ted Cruz will indeed win in Iowa — and that the scenario I sketched out above is entirely plausible.
In recent time Iowa stinks at picking the GOP nominee.
Funny, last poll I saw from IA was 31-31 tie from Gravis It’s on real clear politics). Then there was the +9 Cruz poll, then a +3 Trump poll. Depending on your starting point, you can say Trump is in the lead, or the average has Cruz with a 2+ lead.
Momentum for what? The Iowa and NH momentum is for attracting the big whale donors who want to be on board with the winner. Iowa and NH won’t end Trump, but it will end a lot of the others. I think Cruz will do well there and will get a lot of support out of the whales afterwards, but to claim that “this could all be over very fast” is a bit ridiculous. A strong showing by Cruz could cut the race down to three: Trump, Cruz, and the GOProgressive favorite.
Ignore useless Iowa. Trump will” run the table.”
I always figured Cruz will win Iowa, Trump New Hampshire.
I question how deeply conservative SC really is. They re-elected Goober Grahamnesty AFTER multiple amnesty betrayals and their House delegation isn’t much better. Gowdy and Mulvaney are on board The Cheap Labor Express
I’m not convinced Rubio will do well in Florida given his post-election leftward drift in policy.
Yes. I was just at RCP to see what he deal was. I agree Cruz probably +2-3.
If Republicans want to lose another election, go ahead nominate Cruz. Ideological purity is not enough to win an election, not in these times.
And don’t forget glamour boy Trey Gowdy, now attached to Marco Rubio, Cuban cabana boy.
It’s what? Like the 1000th prediction of Trump’s demise? Forgive me if I yawn.
Well, namby-pamby surrender monkeys haven’t exactly wrapped themselves in the flag, so what do you have to lose? McSlime basically threw 08 and endorsed Ebola. Either Cruz or trump would eviscerate Hell! in a debate, in different ways. Rubio probably would too, to a lesser degree, so long as he was trying his best and not trying to take a fall like you’d expect a GOPE-er to do.
Reagan never led Carter in the polls.
The reason Cruz is a slight favorite in Iowa is on display with the Iowa weather today. Heavy snow and blizzard, even ice.
Caucus novices (Trump supporters) just aren’t going to turn out in large numbers in bad weather. Regular caucus-goers (Cruz supporters) will show up regardless.
Sunshine and 46 degrees on caucus day and all bets are off.
I might be mis-remembering the numbers but .... it put perspective on "polls"
Besides, in the latest head-to-head with various R candidates, only Cruz beat Hell!
A lot will depend on if the “non-Trump’ vote starts to solidify behind Cruz. If so, Cruz might win.
Talked to an older, white guy after church. He’s conservative in his views, but can’t stand how Trump acts. Says he may sit out a Trump-Hillary race.
I said if it is Trump-Hillary, I’m voting for Trump in a heartbeat. Maybe less. I don’t care if Trump is an ass, IF he will fight to get the country more conservative. My concern with Trump is simply that I do not trust him to be a real conservative any more than I trust John McCain to be one. Trump strikes me as a loose cannon with a small conservative tendency. Cruz IS a conservative.
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