Posted on 12/28/2015 2:01:53 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest poll shows Ted Cruz opening his lead over Donald Trump in Iowa to nine points — nine points. If Cruz does indeed win in the Iowa caucuses on February 1, he’ll have enough momentum going into the February 9 New Hampshire primary to place second or third. The next primary will take place on February 20 in South Carolina, where the GOP primary voters are deeply conservative — and, I suspect, likely to give Cruz first place. Three days later the caucuses in Nevada will take place. Receiving little attention in the press, this event will be determined largely by organization on the ground — giving the advantage to Cruz once again.
Which brings us to March 1 and Super Tuesday, when two states will hold GOP caucuses and another ten — including southern states, where Cruz polls well, and his home state of Texas — will hold primaries. If by then Cruz has indeed won Iowa, done well in New Hampshire, and won again in South Carolina, then on Super Tuesday he’s likely to prove dominant.
It stands to reason that Marco Rubio will do well in the Florida primary on March 15 — but it could all be over by then.
All this is predicated, again, on Cruz’s winning in Iowa five weeks from now — and that makes five weeks in which anything might happen, including a collapse in his numbers. But as of now it looks to me as if Ted Cruz will indeed win in Iowa — and that the scenario I sketched out above is entirely plausible.
here in SC, it’s pretty close between Cruz and Trump and Carson!
The way the polls seem to be going, the GOP contest could effectively be over by mid-March.
In several states, Trump has almost the number as the next 8 or 9 GOP contenders added together.
Several of the earlier states have open primaries.
If Trump does trip up, Cruz could be the next most likely. It might take longer for him to accumulate the delegates needed, but if he has that kind of momentum, he could possibly win by mid to late April.
Unless something substantial and significant happens, it appears that none of the other GOP contenders could collect enough delegates. That could lead to a brokered convention.
Until the summer of 1980
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx#4
I’m very conservative. I like the fact that Trump is bringing up issues that need to be discussed. But I find him to be too bombastic and a blowhard. I’m sure he could get some things done but his ego would rub people wrong.
Now Cruz is my pick as he knows the Constitution and wants it to be the law of the land again. If Trump doesn’t get the nomination I hope he throws his support to Cruz. That would seal the election if Hildabeast were the democrat nominee.
Yup, they also won primary for.mccain
He looks like the lizard king. Sorry, but it needs to be said.
>>Someone called in to Rush today and stated that if a poll used 1000 likely voters, it was something like 1/100,000 of one percent of the voting population
I might be mis-remembering the numbers but .... it put perspective on “polls”
Polling or any statistical process control is only as good as the methods of choosing the sample. Polling had a time when it was fairly representative because virtually everyone had a telephone in the house and that phone was tied to an address. Today, a large portion of homes do not have landlines and pollsters can’t use cell phones to get representative samples across geographical areas. To make it harder, a lot of people won’t answer the phone to an unknown number and lot of people won’t answer a text message from an unknown number (and there’s a subset that won’t do either).
So, any small sample polling is useless and large sample polling costs too much.
The long knives are just now starting to be unsheaved.
Look for Cruz’s numbers to tumble in Iowa unless he spends precious cash to retaliate.
Remember Newt in 2012?
His poll numbers where sky high in December in Iowa but the attack adds swarmed and he was toast.
I figure the GOPe will still find some way to anoint Yeb! as the candidate.
Are you saying FL is conservative?
Fax that over to presidents Carter and Obama.
Fax that over to presidents Carter and Obama.
So some corn farmers from Iowa gets to pick the leader of the free world?
I don’t think Cruz will win South Carolina, personally.
He will win Iowa. But that’s not enough. in myopinion, of course.
South Carolina may have some social conservatives. But it’s also close to 30% black.
No matter what, I will not vote for Marco Rubio.
Is this a new poll, or the one from a couple of weeks ago? The latest IA (from a few days ago) showed a dead heat. No link to validate.
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