Posted on 12/27/2015 2:43:13 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
A report from the campaign field in Iowa demonstrates what could be a big problem for Donald Trump, getting all those people who have been showing up at his rallies to actually show up to vote:
When Donald Trump held one of his boisterous rallies at the state fairgrounds this month, Bonnie and Randy Reynolds arrived two hours early to make sure they could snag seats. They bought “Make America Great Again†hats, put on campaign T-shirts and passed through a security checkpoint.
The West Des Moines couple, who have two grown children, had never been to a political event before. Bonnie works in a mailroom; Randy is a press operator. They don’t live paycheck to paycheck, but it would take just one small catastrophe to push them there.
“In the end, everything that he’s saying might not happen if he is elected — but I’m willing to give it a shot,†said Randy Reynolds, 49, who used to vote for Democrats but switched to Republicans a decade ago. “I will give him 100 percent. . . . It would be amazing if the majority of things that he said would actually happen. That would be amazing.â€(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at outsidethebeltway.com ...
I think you had better oil up your calculator Mr. Reno. If only 10% of Trump’s supporters show up at the caucuses, they will be swamped by Cruz. Trump will need to do a hell of a lot better than 10% to have any chance at lll.
“The media is rolling out its last initiative; trying to enlist the power of suggestion.”
Exactly. All the stories of him peaking, going too far, campaign over.... didn’t work. Now they’re trying to suppress voter turnout.
“Ah... I see, it’s a pro Cruz media conspiracy.”
No, genius, unless in your little mind, Cruz and the media are the same people.
I didn’t read the article.
I am just now watching a replay of Fox News Sunday.
Huckabee is a guest and has just said that Donald Trump has gotten 25 times the national coverage of all the other candidates ... and went onto whine about that, but then he finished his interview on a strong note, stating that, “of course he will support Donald Trump if he’s the nominee and the GOP had better support Trump too.”
Seems to me this story will not suppress Trump’s turn-out, but rather more likely to increase it. The Trump supporters, reading this, are more likely to make the effort to go to the caucus rather than staying home as they might be inclined to do if they were reading Trump had it in the bag. I think this story benefits Trump.
Sorry to say, but that's just nuts.
No one knows what percentage of Trump's far larger audiences will attend the caucuses as opposed to Cruz. This is just an attempt to discourage Trump supporters from participating and to give some boost to anyone with a chance to compete with Trump. In Cruz, the GOPe and the MSM hope they've found the vote splitter they need to weaken Trump and give some glimmer of hope that they can steal they nomination in a brokered convention.
Are you sure? What is the size of Cruz’s gatherings? Tens, dozens, maybe hundreds. All carefully not reported. Recently the headlines reported as if for first time Cruz had a packed gathering and slipped that it was around 500 people. 500!!! Trump gets what 5,000-30,000. Big difference by any measure. People like winners and the difference is unmistakeable.
True, they are dealing with a dynamic they’ve never had - really passed off conservatives who have been stabbed in the back by their own party one too many times!
I just saw your first post.
I commented on an article written about the Trump campaign. Not being a Cruz-idiot, the thought and image of Cruz never appeared in my consciousness.
If I said that I preferred chocolate ice cream, would that get your panties in a wad at me trying to slip in an anti-Cruz sentiment?
Why don’t you take your crappy snot and shove it down your freaking throat. And then go out and get a life.
Yep, that's the problem with counting huge rallies or internet polls as evidence of what will happen at the caucus/primary. There's a huge entertainment value to rallies which often doesn't translate into butts in the seats/booths. It's a challenge of politics and the reason the ground game is so vitally important. Connections -- on a personal level -- count. If the atmosphere is concert-like, people will take their t-shirt, go home and talk about the great time they had. They may even read a book, but go sit and listen to less entertaining speakers at a caucus? Stand in line in the rain/snow/heat, get up early/wait for an hour after a long day of work/put up with yelling kids/forgo lunch/whatever? The jury's still out.
You are comparing apples and oranges. You are comparing fairground rallies with small scale retail politicking. Both have a place, but you need to be careful about comparing them or you will wind up deluding yourself.
You ought to have seen the size of George McGovern rallies! I saw some with 20,000 people in attendance, all enthused, all ready to climb mountains and swim seas for him. How did that turn out?
I tend to believe that polls that put Trump and Cruz about even in Iowa. Maybe Trump is in front a bit, or maybe its Cruz. I don’t know, but I DO know that looking at state fair type rallies and concluding much of anything is very risky.
We can talk again after the results of the caucuses are in the books and see who was right. Either way, we can be glad that the winner was not Huckabee, Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Christie or Pataki.
Many people here equate the Iowa caucuses with driving to a polling place, voting and going home. That ain’t how it works.
That would be awesome. Unpredictability!
So they’ll go through worse trouble to attend a rally but not vote? That dog don’t hunt...
Yeah, especially post 21;
“Cruz’s campaign has a chairman in all 99 countiesâ€
So does Trump’s campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-OBN8XA_x0
It has to be hard enough to get people to go to the polling place during a February primary, especially in a place like Iowa. I lived there for 5 years. Bundling up, scraping windows, shoveling/snowblowing driveways, extra drive times...none of it is conducive to getting the casually political out of the house.
What if they do turn out? What if new people who have never taken part—do? What will people say if Trump comes in First ot a solid second? It could happen.
If you are motivated to vote in Iowa then you will show up at a caucus.
If you are motivated to vote in Iowa then you will show up at a caucus.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.