Posted on 12/10/2015 5:57:31 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
At Nate Silver's 538.com, they describe the Republican electorate as a five-ring circus, composed of Libertarian, Tea Party, Evangelical, Establishment, and Moderate voters. A candidate who can bring three of the rings together will be the winner. Ted Cruz is the one who's doing it.
With his pastor/father Rafael leading the way, Cruz has taken the lead among Iowa religious voters away from Ben Carson. Their affection for the fervently Christian Carson is not enough to overcome his obvious weakness as a commander in chief. Santorum and Huckabee are his other competitors in this ring, and neither has Cruz's money or organization. They're going nowhere, and evangelicals like to go with a winner, just like everyone else. Cruz now has this bloc firmly in his grasp, and he's not letting go.
Marco Rubio is Cruz's main competition for the Tea Party ring, but Rubio is not putting in the time schmoozing with them that Iowans believe they're entitled to. Cruz has a far superior organization in a state that greatly rewards it. While Rubio seeks to bridge the Establishment/Tea Party divide, Cruz revels in denunciations of the Republican power elites. He's Tea Party, born and bred, and it's paying off....
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
From four hours ago:
Trump, Cruz Are Denounced in Senate for Shutting Out Muslims
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-cruz-denounced-senate-shutting-211800597.html
And when Trump wins Iowa, which I suspect he will, his detractors will comfort themselves with this statement of yours (Iowa winner does not the nomination bring.) I have the strong suspicion that Trump is going to win everything, and that his popularity is vastly under counted.
Correct. I like what Trump brings to the battle but when it comes to strategy, leadership, intelligence and a Commander in Chief, Cruz wins in a run away.
Trump is not winning Iowa. Cruz will.
My point was that it’s not just Iowa - It’s all of them. I love Cruz but I see Trump with the momentum. A lot can happen in 50 days. We shall see.
I don’t know if you saw this poll as it is the latest poll out of Iowa. A CNN/ORC poll published Dec 7th.
“Poll: Trump, Cruz on the rise in Iowa (Trump 33%, Cruz 20%)”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3369786/posts
Yes I saw it and they say the CNN polls are pretty accurate. Trump is drawing enormous crowds in Iowa. You would think it equates to votes.
You would think it equates to votes.
They go wildly in his rallies, so it's not much of stretch they'll turn out to caucus for Trump. :-) The uber socialist Trump haters (ie Monmouth U pollsters) and alike are going find out in 52 days. Tic toc.
Jebbie at 3 percent is 3 percent too much!
I’m not going to say Ted Cruz can’t win Iowa but it looks like a stretch at this point.
So did Howard Dean. Crowds do not necessarily = voters
Cruz is better positioned to win Iowa. This isn’t an all day voting booth scenario. You need to have grass roots support to get folks and attend a meeting on a crappy cold night during the Iowa winter. Very strong groups are hitching their wagon to the Cruz tractor. I don’t think (correct me if I am wrong) Trump has any significant conservative endorsements in Iowa. Trump did well to get Sam Clovis on his campaign, but I think that is about it.
I was shocked when Dean did not win the Iowa caucus. That dude has people from all over the country flock to Iowa and knock on door after door wearing their bright orange hats. The volunteers were omnipresent. Probably four different volunteers knocked on my door during the week of the caucus.
Dean and Trump. Nice try. :-)
Well, and one thing is for sure...while many of the GOP establishment are afraid of Trump, appalled by Trump, intimidated by Trump....they flat-out hate Cruz’s guts. If he gets anywhere near the nomination the GOPe machine is going to launch an attack against Cruz that will make the democrats look weak. A few of the GOP elite might vote for Hillary over Trump but they would be hauling democrat voters to the polls to vote for Hillary vs Cruz.
Distinguish carefully between what each candidate is saying. Cruz proposes a ban of all refugees from terrorist states, 30 of them. Trump is proposing a ban of all moslems, no matter where they come from. So this applies to moslems from Syria and moslems from Kazakhstan, a nation not known for strident islam. As a voter, you need to choose between the two policies.
You are making a big mistake if you think Trump beats Cruz’s ground game in Iowa.
Basically you are misinformed. In fact Cruz was there first. Trump had to back away from his extreme and over-broad first statement and there is very little air between the positions of both men on this issue.
Meanwhile, Cruz is positioned to take the Iowa caucuses even if he were 5% behind in the polling. But he is not. He is leading in Iowa and his real lead on caucus night will surprise many, you for sure, and maybe even me.
Flooding the state with out-of state volunteers (we’d call those carpet baggers where I’m from) does not = ground game. I’m not saying that they hurt, but Iowans are going to listen to their neighbors and the folks they’ve listened to for years before they’re going to listen to some stranger showing up on their doorstep.
Trump has a very good ground team in Iowa led by Chuck Laudner who helped Santorum win.
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