Can Ted Cruz break into the top tier?

WPTZ-TV ^ | July 6, 2015 | Theodore Schleifer, CNN

[2ndDivisionVet]

He's got $50 million behind him, a fervent following in Iowa, and a brand that he's worked hard to never muddy, but Ted Cruz has yet to have a breakout moment. Is that about to change?

The Texas senator may remain mired in the middle of the seemingly endless Republican pack, but his allies say he is poised to make his move. Doing just well enough nationally to make the debate stage and showing enough promise in early-primary to have a shot next winter, Cruz and his allies are unperturbed by surveys that show him sitting stagnant.

He is bracketed by social conservatives like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, and by Tea Party favorites like Rand Paul and Ben Carson. In order to stand out, Cruz has been willing to step out from the rest of the field.

"He should be capturing the archconservative vote in a way that he's not," said Noah Rothman, a conservative writer for Commentary Magazine, who sees Cruz tacking right for political purposes. "This whole summer could be setting up a Cruz resurrection in the polls."

He has become the most vocal defender of Donald Trump, the flamboyant businessman and presidential candidate who other Republicans have denounced....

[stephenjohnbanker]

Well stated.

[Jane Long]

I love how my Sen Cruz is schooling ~ and dumbfounding ~ even the most entrenched leftist ideologues ;-)

He and Trump need to keep doing what they’re doing. They are BOTH peeling back the lid on a giant can of whoopazz :)

[xzins]

Hi Jack. I can plausibly claim that there are serious problems with polling. Those were evidenced most recently with Bibi Netanyahu's run-away victory in Israel's recent election. Prior to that was the republican landslide in November that supposedly was to close to call.

I've read a number of reports on this, and it has zero to do with my support or lack of support for Ted Cruz. They were across the board.

Polling is seriously influenced with 2 problems the experts have been unable to solve. (1) The lack of dedicated land lines in homes (cell phone problem), and (2) the unwillingness of so many even to answer their phones to unknown numbers.

Here's one article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/03/12/the-problem-with-modern-polling-in-one-chart/

As you can see, they're only getting through 60% of the time and only 10% of those are responding to them.

This is not partisan, but it has great implications for someone like Cruz who gets huge crowds and raises huge money. It is entirely possible that he is appealing to an electorate that protects their privacy.

[Lakeshark]

I liked Rubio until his suicidal change about illegals.

Since then I'm not ready to give him my vote. His position and naivete on illegals has made him someone I can't support. His thirty pieces of silver (Sarah Palin line) change of heart showed me I can't trust him.

It's why I consider him dangerous.

I'm a Reagan conservative, all three legs, and have added illegal immigration as a fourth.

[Lakeshark]

So far he's back at 6 or 7.

I think if he gets in the first debate, he moves to third or fourth. His ability to debate and speak off the cuff, handling the insanity of liberal interviews is going to get him far.

That's going to be big.

[Lakeshark]

He is called far right, extreme, and all the other epithets of the left, even Fox seems to do it.

I remember when Reagan was running, that was the same talking point, it was used by every media outlet and the dems.

Once people heard him, they realized they were being lied to. I think if Cruz makes the debates the same thing will happen for him.

[Lakeshark]

I've been talking to lots of people, I just keep telling them I think it's going to narrow down rapidly, and that we need to support one of the best two. Cruz or Walker. I prefer Cruz, but as stated many times, Walker is just fine if he catches fire. The man is conservative, and simply beats the left. I prefer a Cruz who can beat the left, and explain basic conservative principles in a succinct and compelling way.

I am surprised how many I know like Ben Carson. I like him, I like him a lot, just think there are two much better candidates.

As long as Cruz makes the first debate, I think he's got a good shot.

[C. Edmund Wright]

I think I agree with 100% of that.

[Still Thinking]

And here I thought Cruz WAS the top tier. Everyone else being also-rans.

[Still Thinking]

Probably poll-rigging. That doesn’t mean you can discount it, though, because that’s also the way we run elections.

[Jack Black]

Yes, but polls are still, on average, very good predictors of actual performance. Which is why guys like Nate Silver have awesome batting averages on predicting election results.

And also why everyone who was saying “the polls are wrong”, based on various theories like yours, in the 2012 election ended up being wrong. Including some people who should have known better like Karl Rove and Michael Barone.

RCP, which averages polls, is pretty much where it’s at.

There is a lot of time left for people to improve their positions, but sadly Jeb is doing most of the improving right now.

[xzins]

Go here: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html?_r=0

It is more significant than your words indicate. This is not about “we don’t like these polls”.

This is about polling methodology itself being faulty due to communication changes that are rendering polls untrustworthy. This is recent, it is everywhere, and it DISTORTS numbers.

[Jack Black]

Wow, realists on Free Republic!

“Cruz is loved here no question but he’s still a long shot This ain’t 1980 The demographics are upside down.

Youth detest social conservatism Freepers live in a bubble of our own making Walker probably has a better shot I prefer Cruz ideologically but it will be very uphill and everyone has to turn out”

Well said Wardaddy. I don’t think social issues are going to be a factor in 2016 at least not for most voters. I believe that’s why the GOP is happy to have Obamacare and gay marriage off the table. I think the confederate flag issue is in that same category.

Cruz has been hovering anywhere from 4-8% in the polls. He hasn’t moved much either way but he’s mostly hung right around 5%.

For a candidate that is supposedly as near perfect as Cruz he doesn’t seem to resonate much with anybody not a Freeper.

You make a great point that it’s not 1980. The states have changed the country has changed and the people have changed.

Youth do detest social conservatism and I don’t think that genie can be put back in the bottle.

Cruz reminds me a lot of Fred Thompson in 2008. I remember how he was going to win in a landslide too.

Romney won the nomination last time. He was arguably the most liberal GOPer running. The Conservative base my rally around Ted, but I see no sign of anyone else joining them.

Who is the most liberal person running this time -- Jeb? Rubio? Funny those guys are like 1 and 2.

At some point if we don't want them everyone needs to give up on their dream candidate and rally around the top conservative so that we don't end up with a replay of the 2012 scenario.

We don't have to do that now, but we need to do it by South Carolina. And of course sooner would be better.

Right now that person is Scott Walker.

[Jack Black]

I think if Cruz makes the debates the same thing will happen for him.

He's on the edge of making it. It's not a sure thing. He's been sliding down in the RCP average, and is in 8th place now. Trump jumped ahead of him.

The MSM is promoting Kasich as likely to get a big bump from his announce, timed well to get into the debates.

Poll	Date	Bush	Walker	Carson	Rubio	Huckabee	Paul	Trump	Cruz	Perry	Christie	Santorum	Fiorina	Kasich	Jindal	Graham	Spread
RCP Average	6/11 - 6/28	16.3	10.5	9.8	9.3	7.8	7.3	6.5	4.0	3.8	3.3	2.3	2.0	1.5	1.3	1.3	Bush +5.8

[snarkybob]

“Who is the most liberal person running this time — Jeb? Rubio? Funny those guys are like 1 and 2.”

Liberalism notwithstanding I think Jeb is doomed by dint of being a Bush. JMHO but it’s too close to GWBs less than triumphant administration.

Walker probably has the next best chance among the professional politicians. A week ago I would have said Rubio but he seems to be losing ground. It could be that he and Jeb are fighting over the same demographic.

Walker has hit a bit of a lull but may make that up when he officially announces.

Under normal circumstances I’d laugh at the thought of Trump as a contender but these aren’t really normal circumstances.
The field is really crowded and the GOP is really divided.

I think, barring some serious lightning striking, the rest are pretty much stuck where they are with no real way to move up.
Santorum, Huckabee, Cruz, if you’re not already for them there’s not anything in their arsenals to get you to be for them. Again, JMHO but those 3 don’t resonate with most people.

[Jack Black]

In fact Cruz has been dropping, and has gone from a high of 11% to only 4%. If he drops another point he's still in the debate, as #10.

Trump has zoomed up, and Bush has gone up a lot too. None of the people behind Cruz have really shown any momentum.

[snarkybob]

“In fact Cruz has been dropping, and has gone from a high of 11% to only 4%. If he drops another point he’s still in the debate, as #10.
Trump has zoomed up, and Bush has gone up a lot too. None of the people behind Cruz have really shown any momentum. “

Watching Trump is pretty interesting. I mean if he could maintain this strain he could possibly win.
I expect though that he’s going to turn out to be a one trick pony. If breathing fire about the border is all he can talk about, even though that’s my biggest issue, he’ll fade pretty fast.
To stay viable he needs to also start talking about fair trade and how he hopes to make that happen.

[EvilCapitalist]

I’m sure someone else will reply saying they donated more, but so far I’ve donated $900.00 to Ted.

[Lakeshark]

I agree, it's not a sure thing, it will be close unless something comes up to favor him soon.

I am surprised that Paul polls better, and that Huckabee does so well, although he does have recognition from his past, along with his stint on Fox. His numbers won't likely go anywhere, he's a one trick pony.

As for Jeb, he has to have the softest numbers ever. I doubt he will remain in first, or even in the race as time goes by. Too many bad things with that last name of his, along with a lack of any issues that GOP voters actually like.

Kasich may not get the numbers he hopes, I'd have a hard time believing he's going to make it, he's a boring number cruncher at best.

I do wish Fiorina would make the debates, I don't care for her, but her devastating anti-Hillary screeds will be missed.

[CyberAnt]

Well .. since Ted has been in the spotlight in TX for the past several years, I’d say if he was doing weird stuff .. I kinda think somebody would have noticed by now.

Especially that bunch in Austin (flaming liberals).