Posted on 02/13/2015 4:03:56 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The Walker surge in Iowa, Hillary’s Obama problem and other news from Week One of our yearlong insiders’ survey from the ground in 2016’s first-in-the-nation races.
Most Iowa insiders believe Scott Walker would win their state’s Republican caucuses if they were held this week.
But they’re not this week, and virtually none of the most influential thought leaders in the Hawkeye State believe that the Wisconsin governor will sustain his recent bounce in polls.
This is one of several intriguing findings in the debut survey of The POLITICO Caucus. More than 100 of the most plugged-in activists, operatives and elected officials in Iowa and New Hampshire have agreed to answer a weekly survey over the next year, which will be published here every Friday. It’s a diverse mix of powerful figures from across the political spectrum, including party chairmen, members of Congress, radio hosts and rising stars who command loyal followings.
The insiders are immersed in the nomination battles and their views could be a leading indicator of where the polls are heading. The vast majority of those who are participating are not committed to a candidate yet, though some are playing key roles on the burgeoning campaigns.
The consensus across this group is that Hillary Clinton is almost guaranteed to become the Democratic nominee. Only four of 70 who answered guessed that a Democrat other than Clinton will ultimately win their state.
But there’s widespread agreement that the GOP field really is wide open. In New Hampshire, the feeling is that Jeb Bush would win the first-in-the-nation primary if it were held this week but that it’s premature to call him a front-runner.
Six in 10 Iowa insiders surveyed believe Walker would win the caucuses if they were this week. But only two of the 32 Iowans who returned questionnaires believe the Wisconsin governor will ultimately prevail. “He will now go through a scrutiny that will determine how prepared he is to sustain this front-runner status,” one Iowa Republican remarked.
Here are the key takeaways from our first weekly survey:
Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are fighting for front-runner status. But neither has it.
Asked whether there’s a GOP front-runner, most Republican insiders answered, “no.” The field is stronger than in 2012, and anyone from a handful of candidates could emerge as the nominee, they believe.
Walker got a big boost from his breakout speech at an event put on last month by Iowa Rep. Steve King in Des Moines. But the insiders are keenly aware he remains untested outside Wisconsin.
Bush is a bigger media draw, enjoys higher name ID and has access to more money than any other GOP candidate. For these reasons, one New Hampshire Republican said he is the front-runner “simply by default.”
Others on the right argued that none of these advantages is enough to make Bush a “real” front-runner in the way that Mitt Romney was at this stage in 2012. “It’s too early,” said one of the GOP respondents from New Hampshire. “There’s a lot of kicking of tires yet to happen.”
An Iowa Republican remarked, “This is the most wide open contest I have ever seen.”
The world matters. At least, a surprisingly high number of insiders think 2016 will be a national security election.
Roughly half of those interviewed identified the economy — from stagnant wages to income inequality — as the defining issue of 2016. The next most frequently cited issue was foreign policy and/or national security, with about a quarter of those surveyed predicting it will drive the debate.
Several insiders mentioned specifically the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL.
A nonpartisan academic from Iowa said the use-of-force authorization introduced to Congress by President Barack Obama “automatically moves foreign affairs up on this list for 2016.”
Clinton, as the former secretary of state, will likely position herself as the candidate with unrivaled foreign policy chops. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who looks increasingly serious about running, is playing up his roles on the Senate intelligence and foreign relations committees.
Iowa Republicans
Iowa insiders say Scott Walker would win the caucuses if they were this week
New Hampshire Republicans
New Hampshire insiders say Jeb Bush would win the New Hampshire primary if it was this week.
Rand Paul is winning the GOP ground war. So far.
Hillary Clinton has a built-in, years-in-the-making campaign organization that insiders from both parties agreed is unrivaled. Her 2008 supporters are still with her, and many Obama hands are ready to get on board.
On the Republican side, the majority surveyed in both states said Rand Paul has the most robust organization. His father, Ron, finished third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire in 2012, giving the Kentucky senator a network to build from.
“Paul probably has the best organization at this point, with good management and strong grass roots,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “Others will catch up and level this out, though.”
Others in Iowa mentioned retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who has benefited from an aggressive movement to draft him into the race, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has been spending a lot of time in the state.
Does being a Bush help or hurt Jeb? Insiders are split.
Most Democrats think George W. Bush would be a serious drag on Jeb in a general election. But Republicans are almost evenly divided about whether the Bush name is more of an asset or a liability for the former governor.
“It is a wash if Jeb gets out and shows he is his own person,” said an uncommitted Iowa Republican.
Another said anyone who doesn’t think it’s a net positive is “nuts” but added, “Bush fatigue is a real issue.”
A New Hampshire Republican called it a “two-edge sword” with the grass roots. Another described it as a “net asset in a primary” and a “net liability in the general.”
If Rand Paul benefits from his father’s network, so does Jeb Bush, wrote another Republican respondent from the Hawkeye State. “On one hand, both his Dad and Brother won here,” this person said of Bush. “A lot of activists who were a part of those camps will be a great starting point for an organization. But the name brand isn’t going to help with conservatives, tea party folks and the liberty crowd.”
Clinton could be America’s first female president. And one of its oldest. The pols think age could be a bigger potential problem.
Asked whether the former first lady’s age or gender is more of a possible liability in the campaign, six in 10 picked her age. Only a handful said gender; the rest said neither.
“Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton are the same age, but that won’t stop someone like, say, Rand Paul, whose father ran for president in his mid-70s, from trying to make it a thing,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.
An Iowa Democrat said Clinton’s gender will be the bigger issue, “but that won’t manifest till the general election.” Others called the question absurd.
Several Republicans worried that Clinton’s potential to break the ultimate glass ceiling is a big asset and may draw independent women to her candidacy.
Yes, the inside line has Hillary Clinton walking away with the Democratic nod.
Almost no one in either party thinks Clinton won’t wind up winning both early states. They may want her to spend time on the ground and insist that she’ll have to earn it, but there are few who doubt that she’ll win at the end of the day. Clinton finished third in Iowa last time and won an upset in New Hampshire.
“It seems very unlikely that anyone in the primary field as of now could come near her,” said an Iowa Democrat. “Nobody sees that changing, and Iowa Democrats are equal parts bored and furious about it.”
There are varying opinions about who, if anyone, will emerge as Clinton’s main Democratic challenger. Most Democrats said no one. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was the most frequently mentioned, followed by former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, ex-Virginia Sen. Jim Webb and Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. Just one Democrat mentioned Vice President Joe Biden.
Republicans see Ted Cruz as likeliest to emerge as the social conservative favorite.
Evangelicals picked the last two winners of the Iowa caucuses: Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. Both are running again, but neither can count on the support they had in 2008 and 2012, respectively. An Iowa Republican predicted that “a firebrand” like the Texas senator is more likely to win over base voters.
Among GOP insiders, twice as many picked Cruz to become the leading social conservative candidate as anyone else. But the field is scattered, with nominations for Santorum, Huckabee, Carson, Walker, Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and others.
“I think in the short term it will be Ted Cruz,” said an Iowa Republican. “In the long term I think a guy like Santorum will emerge again because of his ability to weave” his moral beliefs through an array of social and pocketbook issues.
A New Hampshire Republican warned against counting out Huckabee: “It depends on how well a campaign [he] runs.”
Political chatter this week is all about Scott Walker not having graduated from college. Does it matter? Our insiders say ‘no.’
The question of Walker’s lack of a college degree split respondents: A few more said it will hurt his prospects than said it will help. Several of those who thought it would be a plus remarked it could enhance his “regular guy” image.
But very few believe Walker’s scholastic deficit will move votes.
“A surprising number of people seem to know Harry Truman pulled it off and the Democratic Party chair here is also without a college degree and the sky has not fallen,” said one New Hampshire Democrat. “The precise circumstances of leaving college — not the fact of no degree — could be more problematic to New Hampshire voters if the circumstances are unsavory.”
“I can’t wait to see this play out,” said an Iowa Democrat. “I will be terribly disappointed if one of his rivals, or a surrogate, does not put their foot in their mouth on this issue. … I think it will make him seem more populist.”
Who’s a bigger help to Hillary? Both Democrats and Republicans pick Bill Clinton over Obama.
The former president is viewed by both Democrats and Republicans as much more of an asset for Hillary than Obama. Only one of the Democrats surveyed think that he hurts her, although two other Democrats said there are sure to be some moments where he becomes unhelpful — just as in 2008.
All but a handful of Republicans think having Bill Clinton on the campaign trail helps her.
Among 31 Democrats who answered the question, 16 said Obama is an asset, while 7 said he is a liability. The rest said they’re either unsure or it depends on what happens overseas and with the economy.
“The president is up and down in New Hampshire like a yo-yo,” said a Democrat there.
“They should see him as an asset, but I am not sure that they do,” added an Iowa Democrat. “He will win them caucus voters and help solidify her base.”
Members of The POLITICO Caucus (those who participated this week are bolded):
Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young
New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Terie Norelli, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams.
It’s funny how JEB’s crash and burn IT program has been ignored.
That was a major mess-up.
OleJeb, Huckaboob and Sweatervestless can all “camp out” in Iowa, given they’re unemployed, whereas Walker and Christie have states to govern and Cruz, Paul Rubio have US Senate seats.
Hillary in a landslide on the Dem side.
Walker strong and ahead, but probably won't be able to sustain his momentum. Thus opens the way for Jeb to slink in.
[IIRC, Iowa has predicted ONE non-sitting president since Ford. They really don't that great a record at being the predictor of Republican presidential candidates.]
I would have really liked to see that this time around everyone could have gotten behind ONE candidate so the gope couldn’t create the circular firing squad, but, I guess that is not to be. After that ridiculous Drudge poll...
Anyone having faith in the political acumen of post-1963 Iowa is whistling in the dark.
Mr. niteowl77
Heaven help us. The GOP-e want it to be a match between Hillary and Jeb in 2016.
That could well happen.
Throw in the inevitable 3rd party from our side and
SHAZAM
it’s the third Clintonian plurality win in POTUS election history!
Don’t see why Walker can’t maintain the momentum, he’s going to be able to report a continuing series of positive successes as a result of conservative government in WI.
Mitt and Jeb did a round of rock-paper-scissor to determine which gope would run. So they won’t have a split vote.
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