Posted on 01/19/2014 1:16:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
My Post colleague Dan Balz has some very interesting reporting from Democratic and Republican strategists. Both groups seem somewhat pessimistic about the GOP’s chances in 2016:
A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.
That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: The quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.
Demographics are certainly one factor worth considering. But it’s worth taking a minute to see what a few of those others factors suggest. It might give that veteran of GOP presidential campaigns more hope.
In April 2012, two other political scientists — Seth Hill and Lynn Vavreck — and I did a presidential election forecasting model for The Washington Post. The model had only three factors: The change in gross domestic product in the first two quarters of the election year, the president’s approval rating as of June of that year and whether the incumbent was running. That model forecast that Obama would win in 2012, and — although there is nothing magic about this model — it was ultimately accurate within a percentage point.
It is far too early to do a formal forecast for 2016. The economic and political conditions in that year will be paramount. But given that at least some in the GOP appear pessimistic as of today, it’s worth asking...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
They probably were angry, but what does one do when he’s got the Sword of Democles hanging over him?
There is nothing "democratic" about the "Democrat" party.
It’s their formal name.
More GOP daydreaming. Thinking about 2016 and beyond while the Dems ruthlessly focus on 2014. The GOP tip toes to 2014 while the Dems execute their new a lie every week and divide the GOP strategy.
The author isn’t a Republican.
Good luck winning VA with that corrupt Clinton lackey running the state ...the crap that he’ll pull to make sure that state goes dem will know no bounds...write that one off....
PA is a lost cause
CO and NM are hippy and illegal alien infested and will never go republican....
Hard math for republicans to win
I don’t know how uphill its going to be after Boehner and his merry band of RINO’s pass amnesty and then tax hikes ie. “closing the loopholes” That means getting rid of the middle class mortgage deduction and God knows what else. After screwing the veterans I wouldn’t put anything past those shameless quislings.
6 million republicans sat home in 2012. What if 8 million sit home in 2016?
Yep. They’ve mastered voter fraud and the use of ‘Ross Perot’s’ to meet their goals. Two words are a constant reminder of their misdeeds: Al Franken.
We are on an express train to disaster. The only question is will the military intervene (or something else) to derail it.
LOL! I’d love to believe we have a shot in 2016, but after seeing Obama win again...I doubt it the American people are too stupid.
If patriots would wake up and use the 2014 and 2016 elections to build a Congress controlled by a 2/3 conservative majority in each House by 2016, then a conservative Congess would be able to overide the vetoes of any RINO or liberal that gets elected to the Oval Office in 2016.
That's right. "Democrat" is their formal name. That's how their party affiliation is designated on ballots.
If things were otherwise, "Republicans" would be known as "Republicanics", "Libertarians" would be known as "Libertarianics" and "Independents" would be known as "Independentics".
ACORN’s Seeds Sprout Up Across the Country
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3111204/posts
Voter Fraud: We’ve Got Proof It’s Easy
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3111190/posts
When Republicans are in the majority, they govern like they are in the minority.
When Republicans are in the minority, the govern like they’ll never again become the majority party.
We are at 1978 looking at 1980. All we need is a conservative candidate.
We have Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, etc., etc...
Not true; NM went Republican for Bush's election, and has Susana Martenez as gov.
The Democrat political strategy for 2014 and 2016 is crystal clear:
Get huge numbers of Black, Hispanic, immigrant, and poor white women voters to the polls.
It's a simple math problem.
For the last 20 years, Republicans have won elections only because of high turnout from white voters, and low turnout from non-white voters.
When non-whites start to vote at the same rate that whites vote, the game is up for Conservatives.
If Democrats can turn out their base in 2016, they will win Georgia and turn Texas into a “Battleground” state.
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