Posted on 11/03/2012 9:34:23 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Ed already gave you all you really need to know about the D+9 sample, but I know you conservatives. I understand your DNA. You are probably looking for any indication the election is going to get away from us, and you’re getting a head start on your 96 hour panic now. Let me see if I can help walk you in from the ledge.
In 2008, one of John McCain’s closing campaign stops was in Cleveland, Ohio. It happened to be at the same venue Barack Obama used last night (h/t John Nolte over at Breitbart). John McCain drew a crowd of 4,200 people. Barack Obama? 2,800. The same night, Romney/Ryan drew 30,000 people in West Chester.
So in order to believe the Marist poll, that Obama is up over the margin of error, you have to believe that the intensity level for Obama by party ID is higher now than it was in 2008. You have to believe that the swing from 2008 to 2010, where party ID went from D+8 to R+1, resulting in the election of a Republican governor, a Republican Senator, and control of the state house, all that has not only vanished, but recoiled even further in Obama’s direction. You have to believe that the crowd of 80,000 Obama drew in 2008 in Cleveland the closing days of the campaign demonstrates less energy and passion for their candidate than the 4,000 did this morning. You have to believe that the 30,000 people last night at the Romney/Ryan rally shows less enthusiasm for their candidate than the 4,200 did in 2008 for John McCain. You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory, is wrong when he reads that Cuyahoga County, long a Democratic stronghold in the Buckeye State, is way off in party registration. He’s also wrong when reports for early voting tend to favor Mitt Romney, and favor him big. You also have to believe that Ohio Catholics and values voters don’t care about the HHS regulations. You also have to believe that Ohio, an energy state, doesn’t care about energy production.
If your belief is that great, you have greater faith in Eeyore than I do.
Marist – Mostly Assuming Republicans Invisible Sounds True.
Is the poll the Marist Poll or the Marxist Poll?
Thank you (and the rest of FR) for helping pull me back at least a foot from the edge. I drift forward and back, forward and back...too scared of the positivity and momentum I am feeling, but even more frightened of NOT feeling them. Dear God. I just want to go to sleep and wake up Tuesday to go vote, then go back to sleep and wake up Wednesday when it will be (hopefully) over. What it all comes down to is this: My faith in America is starting to be restored and I’m terrified it’s going to be ripped from me again. I am insane.
Good pick me up post!
lol. is it as bad as Rooters that says Obama winning Ohio by 1%... its internals say 46% Dem, 38% GOP
Cuz you use spaces between the words?
I *was* going to simply leave the house election night and not come home until early morning.
That ‘sanity preserving plan’ went south because of the sick puppy.
I’m going to have to stay home and tear my hair out all night.
Not me I want to sleep in late, since I already voted. Then I want to stay up late watching the returns. My hopes are to see Chris Matthews cry, see James Carvalle wear a trashcan, and read about the DU wallowing in despair. Then tivo the first 5 minutes of the LSM morning shows to see if they are wearing black.
This article using real numbers and reasoning trashes the last vestige of the Obama push polling propaganda, the Marist Nov. 2 Ohio poll.
I don’t know. After all, everybody in Cleveland got Obamaphone!
Get a good book, some decent wine and play Mahler on the stereo. When you wake up in the morning with a hang over turn on Fox News to find out what happened; I'll bet it makes you feel much better.
Marist Marxist same thing.
(Fixed it!)
LOL....great line. And an apt description.
Hank
LOL....great line. And an apt description.
Hank
I wish I could get good and drunk but I can’t stand the stuff.
It all tastes like artificially flavored rubbing alcohol to me.
I have to face reality completely sober.
[and that ain’t for wimps]
LOL
Maybe I can keep busy and compulsively rearrange my art studio.
[oh, who am I kidding...I’ll be glued to the TV]
thanks. i really needed that. im so worried. now maybe i can sleep better.
My hopes are to see Chris Matthews cry, see James Carvalle wear a trashcan
i actually like james carville. i cant figure out why
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