Election Night Surprise: Why Minnesota Will Turn Red on November 6

Battleground Watch ^ | October 19, 2012 | Keith Backer

[annieokie]

Whatever you do, do not make your "lib" father mad. lol

It is going to be very difficult for him to do this and he needs lots of comfort.

[OneVike]

I grew up in Duluth, left at 16 when I joined the carnival. I have only been back a few times since. It was already a liberal bastion back in the early 1970's when I left. I always refereed to it as SF of the North due to its liberal commie policies.

It's in the 8th Congressional District that had been in Democrat hands since 1947. I never thought I would see the day that Congressman Jim Oberstar would lose his seat to a Republican. I was convinced he would die in office, but then 2010 happened and Chip Cravaack defeated him.

That Congressional seat was considered the most secure Democrat seat in the nation. I wrote about it being a sign of the Democrats demise back in 2010.

Now I am of the opinion that Minnesota could very well go Republican this time around for Romney. If it does, then I would also bet that California is a lot closer then we know. Not that Romney will win Ca, but many Americans now know who Obama and the democrats are, and they don't like what they see.

[Road Glide]

“Election Night Surprise: Why Minnesota Will Turn Red on November 6...”

Heh.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[luvie]

Going red would be wonderful in November because we have a legislature to hold, and Voter ID and the marriage amendment to get passed.

From your fingers to God's ears, Sir! :)

[freemama]

Not figured into the analysis is the marriage referendums effect on turn out. I think conservatives who heretofore didn’t vote in MN because it just always goes dem will turn out this time to vote on that. It could be the tipping point.

[Henry Hnyellar]

Too bad it’s not 1972.

[Fred Hayek]

PA will go red before MN. I would like to see MN go red, however. It would be interesting to see heads explode in Minneapolis.

[CaspersGh0sts]

I could see it. It’s a very white state with a higher than average rate of religious observance. There’s a long history of liberalism, particularly in the Twin Cities area. Lots of old unions are falling by the wayside, but you still have cities like Duluth that are chock full of blue collar unions guys.

I honestly see MN and WI increasingly breaking the GOP way. It’s long past due.

[Fred Hayek]

It was also surprising to see Norm Coleman beat Walter Mondale in 2002, but I think that was the reaction to the Wellstone Funerally.

[Two Kids' Dad]

Try this with your dad:

“Dad, you know 0bama’s going to win Minnesota, so you and your buddies should vote your wallets and go for Romney. The result will be the same but you’ll still be able to feel warm inside for doing right by your financial situation.”

If a few thousand people convinced their family members to do that and they each convinced one or two others, election day could show some much better results. Barring that, you could suggest that he simply leave the presidential box unchecked as a protest vote against the debt and deficit situation.

[SeekAndFind]

With President Obama in the SurveyUSA Party ID section this breaks down as (27 x .06) + (37 x .93) + (30 x .42) + (6 x .17) + (6 x .33) = 51.7 or 52

Scenario 1: Survey USA Party ID	27	37	30	6	[6]	Vote Total
	Republicans %	Democrats %	Independents %	Other %	Undecided %
Obama	6	93	42	17	33	51.7
Romney	89	4	45	17	66	44.0
Scenario 2: 2008 Party ID	33	37	25	6	[6]
	Republicans %	Democrats %	Independents %	Other %	Undecided %
Obama	6	93	42	17	33	49.9
Romney	89	4	45	17	66	47.1
Scenario 3: 2012 Party ID est.	32	32	30	6	[6]
	Republicans %	Democrats %	Independents %	Other %	Undecided %
Obama	6	93	42	17	33	47.3
Romney	89	4	45	17	66	48.2

Our three scenarios produce the following results:

• Party ID D +10: Obama wins by 8
• Party ID D +4: Obama wins by 3
• Party ID even: Romney wins by 1

[lquist1]

I live here in the Twin Cities and I’ve been seeing Obama ads for a couple months now. Not a whole bunch of them, but they do advertise here somewhat regularly. Haven’t seen any Romney ads. I have assumed that they were targeted toward Western Wisconsin, which is only about 20 minutes from St Paul. I just can’t imagine this state turning red, but I’m sure it could happen with a big enough wave.

[MNGal]

Yes, my dad is a retired school teacher, and I was raised to have liberal tendencies throughout my colleges and early working years. I happened to marry a conservative “red neck” Texan who brought me from the darkness into the light. The rest is history. :-)

[editor-surveyor]

>> “Al Franken. Enough said!” <<

.
Franken didn’t win the election, it was given to him by the courts that refused to uphold the law.

[editor-surveyor]

Ann Romney seems to believe that PA is theirs.

[Flatus I. Maximus]

Gov. Romney is somewhat similar to President Nixon and Mr. Obama is to the left of Sen. McGovern

The late Senator George McGovern.

Sorry, I'm just going to keep saying that for the next few days. It makes me almost as happy as saying the late Jane Fonda would.

[2ndDivisionVet]

At least Senator McGovern served honorably and bravely in World War II in the Army Air Forces. What has Miss Fonda ever done for this country?

[grey_whiskers]

Name recognition, plus she does the whole 'constituent service' thingy that the late Uncle Ted from Taxachusetts perfected.

NO cheers, unfortunately.

[Bshaw]

I predict a red PA.... Though I’m no sage. Obama has beaten coal up too badly to win PA.

[TomEwall]

“In 2008, the under-performance versus the national shrunk to 1%, meaning had John McCain received 51% of the national vote, he could have expected to get 50% of the vote in Minnesota.”

I didn’t understand where this number came from, given that Obama won Minnesota by 3% more than the national vote. It seems like this would translate to McCain would have needed to have obtained 3% more of the vote to have a shot at Minnesota.

I remember reading some years ago from Jay Cost, when he was doing the horse race blog, that Minnesota, and other Upper Midwest states, were trending Republican. If this is the case, and given a +3 Dem bias to overcome, it seems from logic that if Romney wins by 2% or so, he ought to have a shot.