Election Night Guide!

[NY4Romney]

As the presidential election approaches, I've decided to make a guide to keep some of us from freaking out as polls close and states are called. I'm basing it off of what happened in 2008.

7PM * Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia will close. * In 2008: Kentucky called for McCain, Vermont for Obama. The rest were too close to call. *Good news in 2012: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina all called for Romney at the close. *Bad news in 2012: Any of the above considered too close to call for Romney at close. *We've likely won if: Virginia is called for Romney at closing. *We've likely lost if: Virginia is called for Obama at close (or any time after).

7:30PM *Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia close. *In 2008, Ohio and NC were too close to call, WV went for McCain at close. *In 2012, it will likely go the same way. *Good news in 2012: North Carolina called for Romney at close. *Bad news in 2012: North Carolina called for Obama at close (or any time after).

8PM *Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington DC. *In 2008, Obama got Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. McCain got only Oklahoma and Tennessee at close. *Good news in 2012: Romney gets Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri at close. Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire are too close to call. Bad news in 2012: Any from the point above are "too close to call", Pennsylvania is called for Obama early (even if Obama ends up winning it, if we keep it too close to call it's bad for Obama), New Hampshire is called for Obama early. We've likely won if: Florida, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania are called for Romney at closing.

8:30PM *Arkansas only, which was called right away for McCain and will again be called right away for Romney.

9PM *Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming. *In 2008, Obama got Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, and Rhode Island at poll closing time. McCain got Texas, Wyoming and Kansas. *Good news in 2012: Romney gets Texas, Wyoming, Arizona, Louisiana, Nebraska and Kansas at close. Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado are too close to call. *Bad news in 2012: Any from point above that should close for Romney are too close to call. Michigan, Wisconsin, or Colorado go for Obama right at close. *We likely win if: Wisconsin or Colorado are called for Romney at close.

!0PM *Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah close. *In 2008, Iowa called for Obama. Utah for McCain. Other two too close to call at close. *In 2012, good news is: Montana and Utah called at close for Romney. Iowa and Nevada too close to call. *Bad news in 2012: Nevada or Iowa called for Obama at close. Montana too close to call. *We likely win if: Iowa is called for Romney at close.

Past 10 pm, the remaining states are obvious and will be called right at closing time just like in 2008.

This guide is only explaining what is good or bad for us right when the polls close, using exit polls. Obviously, exit polls can be wrong, and this is simply a loose guideline, but using it we can get an idea of how things are going fairly early on in the night by simply comparing to what happened in 2008. In 2008, typical safe Republican states were considered too close to call, which is when I KNEW McCain had lost badly.

[Darren McCarty]

Everyone who is able should be out doing election work until the polls close. I got my arm twisted to join lawyers for Romney making sure there isn't cheating.

It's not hard to be a poll watcher (which I was in 08), poll challenger, or to work the polls whether it be for the presidential campaign in close states, or state and local races both here and elsewhere. My county is blue, but my state is purple and my state rep district is close to 50/50.

[Darren McCarty]

Good idea.

If I'm on FR on election day, it will be a post and run from my smart phone during a slowdown. That's also the extent most people here should be on FR, or Redstate, or any of the other political blogs out there.

We all should be doing something more than just voting on election day. Whether it be poll challenging, poll watching, legal work, holding up signs at the polling place, doing calls at the victory center, or giving rides to the polling place.

OTOH, Everybody here is a pundit and pundits do not campaign.

And those same pundits whine about losing due to being outworked.

[scrabblehack]

Are there laws to that effect? Some of the networks (maybe all except Fox?) called FL for Gore before 8 pm Eastern/7 pm central, even though polls in the panhandle (which was pro-Bush country) were still open.

With all the hurricanes that Dan Rather et al. covered, I think they very well knew that the FL panhandle was Central Time.

[GOPsterinMA]

I'd be willing to chat on Facebook with folks; some of you know my handle on there. Although, I just might, might, venture into Boston and see if I can sneak into Team Glove HQ for the victory party.

[cherry]

So we will know at 5 pm on election day if mitt wins.

[Impy]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/closing.phtml?format=gc

I didn’t realize Guam and the Northern Marianas were first (they are in early time zones, not late ones). Non-voting delegates are D and D-supporting Indie, respectively. Northern Marianas is a two way race this time I think so the GOP vote won’t be split as in the past (”rat” won with 43% last time). The rat witch in Guam is probably safe though.

Indiana and Kentucky are the earliest states. A rat win in the IN Senate race would be a disaster sign.

I seem to remember being on FR in 2008 election night I think I even posted some threads, and yet I couldn’t get on the other night during the debate.

[fieldmarshaldj]

The Northern Marianas Delegate has officially become a Democrat since his election. A damn sight unfortunate given that I supported giving them an official Delegate back in the ‘90s based on their GOP voting preference. I would not have after seeing the first guy elected in a heavy GOP year.

[dfwgator]

If you see fires emanating from the inner city, you’ll know Romney won.

[campaignPete R-CT]

I am campaigning on MON ... tomorrow, starting at 9am til sundown. For some reason, conservatives who do not do politics tend to curse me for my efforts, or perhaps they don't know what to say.

In my younger days when I was a hopeless optimist, I laughed it off. Now, as a bitter old hoot (LOL), I hafta make an effort not to resent it. Because I know what I do is futile until others begin to participate. It may just be an east coast thing. That conservatives refuse to get involved in campaigns. Except for the donation check.

A pro-life conservative state House candidate running against a NARAL, super-green DEM incumbent. It will be 52% to 48% either way, so a dog-fight decided by a few hundred votes.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Godspeed on that state house race, and on the other races where you’re volunteering.

[onyx]

God bless and keep you!

[Darren McCarty]

Good luck.

[AuH2ORepublican]

The Dem won in the Northern Marianas because of vote split; hopefully that aberration will be corrected this November.

The Dem delegate for Guam, Madeleine Bordallo, is the widow of a former Guam governor (she’s originally from the U.S. mainland). During 2007-2011, when the House (unconstitutionally) permitted Delegates to vote on the floor (albeit with a do-over provision in case their votes were determinant), she voted for the Smith-Stupak Amendment to protect the pro-life Mexico City Policy and voted to deny funding for Planned Parenthood. http://nrlc.capwiz.com/bio/id/132864 Bordallo is the most pro-life Democrat woman in Congress in at least 20 years.

[fieldmarshaldj]

This time NMI Delegate Sablan will face a single GOP candidate (Dr. Ignacia Tudela Demapan). I, however, have no idea how formidable she is. A “heavy hitter” in GOP former Gov. Babauta placed a distant 3rd last time behind a Covenant Party candidate, so the doctor may only be desultory opposition this year.

I didn’t recall about Del. Bordallo’s record on pro-life issues. Her late husband, Gov. Ricardo B., totally flipped out and chained himself to a statue and committed suicide.

[Impy]

Are there laws to that effect? Some of the networks (maybe all except Fox?) called FL for Gore before 8 pm Eastern/7 pm central, even though polls in the panhandle (which was pro-Bush country) were still open.

While it was highly unprofessional of the networks to do that the first amendment precludes such laws and that's a good thing.

In Canada you can't report the results until the whole country is done voting I believe. I had to take to twitter to find out who was winning their last election which was

A)Annoying

B)Proof you can't restrict information in a free country

[Impy]

. Her late husband, Gov. Ricardo B., totally flipped out and chained himself to a statue and committed suicide.

Damn.

The widow is pro-life huh? Good, she's still slime though.

I can hardly think of any rat women that are. That Governor of Kansas Finnery, that 1 term rat from PA-3 Dahlkemper. And former Mo Rep. Pat Danner, I think. And possibly that rat lady that held MD-1, Bev Byron?

Sablan is a democrat now officially, but our campaigns has him on the ballot as an indy again. The rat party seems to barley exist in the territory. The official rat got single digits in the initial delegate election in 2008. And they exactly 1 member of the legislature according to Wikipedia.

[nutmeg]

NY4Romney appears to have been banned. What happened?

Guess it's still not safe to be "4Romney" here...?

[BillyBoy]

>> I can hardly think of any rat women that are <<

It's not too common, but there's a handful. I dated a pro-life RAT a while back (she REALLY hated George W. Bush). I know Kate Mulgrew, who played Captain Janeway on Star Trek: Voyager, is a pro-life RAT. She has publicly said so and received an award from Feminists for Life (her husband, Tim Hagan, is a politician. He was the RAT nominee for Governor of Ohio in 2002 and lost to Bob Taft)

My guess would be that around 20% of self-declared RAT females are pro-life, but most of them keep quiet about it and they almost never seek elective office, due to the way the pro-abortion wing of the RAT party is so militantly opposed to anyone who doesn't worship Planned Parenthood.

[onyx]

Hi nutmeg!

I have NO idea about bannings.

Jim is voting against the Marxist, by voting for Romney, so being FOR Romney would have NOTHING to do with anyone getting banned.

[BillyBoy]

Another interesting observation I'll add about pro-life RAT women. From all the examples I've heard of/talked to (especially the examples I gave of Kate Mulgrew and my Ex), they are NOT people you'd put in the "Socially conservative" Democrat camp. In other words, they're not the types you see elected in the Bible Belt who run as "centrist" Dems and are outspoken pro-gun and pro-traditional marriage, or Lipinski and Murtha type Dems you see up north who TALK conservative and get the mainstream media to invoke them as an example of a thoughtful Democrat who works well with Republicans whenever they vote for Obama scheme.

Rather, the ones I've encountered sound like a typical conservative when when it comes to abortion (they're flat out tell you abortion is murder and Roe v. Wade was a horrible barbaric ruling), but they are across the board liberal on everything else -- the rich are evil, corporations work for the greedy Republicans, global warming will kill us all, Bush lied about Iraq, let's play nice with terrorists, ban freedom of speech for anyone who disagrees with me, gay marriage now, open borders and amnesty for all, etc., etc. That's why the relationship with my ex didn't work out. They're liberal Dems. Basically it's like a Joe Lieberman-type RAT except the one issue where they're "with us" is pro-life instead of the war on terror. The other 95% of the time they're typical RATs.

I think the Socialist Party USA even nominated someone like that for President, and gave him a gag order that he was NOT to talk about abortion or his own views about it during the course of his presidential campaign. Another male example of that mindset is Bill Scheurer, who ran against Melissa Bean on a third party ticket several times. He was pro-life but to the left of her on everything else.

In other words, most of these pro-life female RATs would probably make pretty good marxist Obama politicians. I think the only reason you don't see more of them in office is the Planned Parenthood overlords won't allow it.