Posted on 10/20/2012 7:36:37 PM PDT by NY4Romney
As the presidential election approaches, I've decided to make a guide to keep some of us from freaking out as polls close and states are called. I'm basing it off of what happened in 2008.
7PM * Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia will close. * In 2008: Kentucky called for McCain, Vermont for Obama. The rest were too close to call. *Good news in 2012: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina all called for Romney at the close. *Bad news in 2012: Any of the above considered too close to call for Romney at close. *We've likely won if: Virginia is called for Romney at closing. *We've likely lost if: Virginia is called for Obama at close (or any time after).
7:30PM *Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia close. *In 2008, Ohio and NC were too close to call, WV went for McCain at close. *In 2012, it will likely go the same way. *Good news in 2012: North Carolina called for Romney at close. *Bad news in 2012: North Carolina called for Obama at close (or any time after).
8PM *Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington DC. *In 2008, Obama got Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. McCain got only Oklahoma and Tennessee at close. *Good news in 2012: Romney gets Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri at close. Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire are too close to call. Bad news in 2012: Any from the point above are "too close to call", Pennsylvania is called for Obama early (even if Obama ends up winning it, if we keep it too close to call it's bad for Obama), New Hampshire is called for Obama early. We've likely won if: Florida, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania are called for Romney at closing.
8:30PM *Arkansas only, which was called right away for McCain and will again be called right away for Romney.
9PM *Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming. *In 2008, Obama got Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, and Rhode Island at poll closing time. McCain got Texas, Wyoming and Kansas. *Good news in 2012: Romney gets Texas, Wyoming, Arizona, Louisiana, Nebraska and Kansas at close. Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado are too close to call. *Bad news in 2012: Any from point above that should close for Romney are too close to call. Michigan, Wisconsin, or Colorado go for Obama right at close. *We likely win if: Wisconsin or Colorado are called for Romney at close.
!0PM *Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah close. *In 2008, Iowa called for Obama. Utah for McCain. Other two too close to call at close. *In 2012, good news is: Montana and Utah called at close for Romney. Iowa and Nevada too close to call. *Bad news in 2012: Nevada or Iowa called for Obama at close. Montana too close to call. *We likely win if: Iowa is called for Romney at close.
Past 10 pm, the remaining states are obvious and will be called right at closing time just like in 2008.
This guide is only explaining what is good or bad for us right when the polls close, using exit polls. Obviously, exit polls can be wrong, and this is simply a loose guideline, but using it we can get an idea of how things are going fairly early on in the night by simply comparing to what happened in 2008. In 2008, typical safe Republican states were considered too close to call, which is when I KNEW McCain had lost badly.
In 2000, broadcast journalism was slow to report Democrat losses. If not, people on the west coast would have been treated to the intelligence that Gore had lost his home state, and Clintons home state, while the polls were still open out west.
So the entire premise of your posting, well-intentioned as it is, is premised on a fallacy.
I will also be climbing the walls that day! LOL! Bigtime!!! But ... PLEASE do not mix Xanax and wine. Bad idea that has resulted in tragedy in the past. (Especially if you, say, drink half the bottle, then think, “Hey, I never took that Xanax,” and go back and have another one ... oops!)
Pick one or t’other, please! ;o)
I agree. Expect the media to be in a mad rush to call states for Obama while very slow to call any states for Romney that aren’t blatantly obvious. That’s because they want the voters out west (particularly Colorado and Nevada and anywhere with tight senate contests) to see the big scoreboard with Obama way ahead of Romney in the electoral vote total.
Only later will they call any close states for Romney and he’ll make a hard charge until California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii all go for Obama putting him within striking distance of a win. Then, hopefully, the last undecided states break for Romney and we get a victory.
Then come the recounts and the challenges and more recounts and judicial appeals and more recounts and mysterious unreported boxes where 1,000s of Democrats voted in alphabetical order with the same handwriting...
Poll ping. Reference.
I disagree, maybe they might try that on MSNBC, but too many networks take part and do their own exit polling, and delaying calling states means other networks will make the calls before they do and “steal the scoop.” Election night ratings are much more important.
I can tell you one thing we probably won’t be doing that night... and that’s talking to each other on FR. We couldn’t handle debate traffic, and I expect this site will be completely down by the morning of Election Day. :-|
A FR chat room for election night is a good idea, NY4Romney. Make sure it’s one that can handle the traffic, of course.
Hey -that 8 PM Florida should be 9 PM right? Don’t let anything keep people from voting for every last minute. Remember how they depressed Bush vote in the panhandle in 2000.
They’ll call Fl for Obama at 4 pm to others will stay away
FL closes at 7 pm local, which is 7 pm Eastern but 8 pm Central.
Just make sure you vote. I used to live in Ohio, so I can tell you based on what I've seen from the absentee ballots and early voting and heard from my friends and relatives who have relayed what they are seeing on the ground in Northeastern, Ohio........Romney is going to win Ohio.
I lived in Ohio when Carter was elected and when he was tossed out by Reagan.....I'm telling you, 2008 felt like Carter getting elected again in Ohio and 2012 feels like Carters epic fail in 1980, except the polls are breaking toward Romney a hell of a lot earlier.
I know, usually the media hold calling certain states to keep the voting going ....but the difference this time is FOX. I have a feeling that because Obozo closed FOX out of a meeting discussing Bengazi a couple of weeks ago they are going to be making a lot of election night calls for Romney before any of the other news channels........
I have no proof this is going to happen just a feeling based on how FOX has been going after Obozo for Bengazi since they were closed out of the meeting......
.......And if telling you all of this doesn't help can I suggest Yoga......It really does work.
At my house we're going to open up a bottle of Macallen 15 yr. when Romney goes over 270 and taking Wednesday off from work!
Fox may call races but the Rat media treat them like the Drudge Report anyway. What will matter to them is when AP or the other Rat media calls a state.
I am very likely to be in training for a new job that week and will have to turn in early to be up at 5 a.m. so no drinking or partying for me. (Romney being a Mormon will make for some awkward inauguration balls...).
But I’ll probably drink a toast on Wednesday night if everything goes well. “Here’s to saving civilization, if only temporarily...”
Well, I'm glad you have a new job and I'm sorry you'll be up at 5 am. the next day but that is a celebration in and of itself in this crummy Obozo ecomony. We'll be raising our glasses to all the people who made Romnney the next president that night...that means we'll be counting you and yours in that total too......
One piece of Florida closes at 7, but part of the panhandle closes at 8, so the state cannot be legally called until 8pm eastern.
Interesting. Not to be a nose-picker, but for 8PM you have McCain getting OK and TN but no mention of Missouri.
Missouri was called days later. This is a guide for states being called right when their polls close.
i think more of you should find a candidate for state house who is in a tight race .. and campaign for him/her. We will start at 6am, go to 8pm with lotsa lunch breaks.
OTOH, Everybody here is a pundit and pundits do not campaign.
I know how you feel. I am so distracted and practically ill going into this election
I was down doing election work in Ohio with a political consultant friend of mine in 08. That reads numbers better than anyone else I know. When we left at polls closing, we saw Indiana and Kentucky reporting. Indiana was then at 53% McCain. I said that worried me. Indiana shouldn't be that close. He looked to see what was in. Gary wasn't. Indianapolis wasn't. He didn't say anything until we started driving back to Michigan. He didn't have to say anything. I knew at that point we're going to get our asses kicked.
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