Posted on 10/17/2012 3:12:12 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”
Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:
Peter Hamby✔ @PeterHambyCNN
The buzz from Columbus: Ohio race was reset by Romney's first debate (and he may have even been up heading into debate #2)
17 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite
It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.
Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.
Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.
(VIDEO AT LINK)
That’s a shame.
McGovern was a socialist and not terribly bright, which would support your position, but McGovern at least didn't hate our country. I'd take him over Obama in a heartbeat, and not just because of his failing health.
Oops. I had NM colored wrong. He’s at 257, not 262, so needs 12 more. That’s either
1.Ohio
2.Wisconsin + one other state
3.Nevada + Iowa
Maine EV doesn’t matter. NH only matters if Romney wins Wisconsin but loses Ohio.
Seems unlikely Romney would win without Ohio, however.
The fairy tale turns Grimm...
Heck, it’s been grim for America since 2008!
Good report.
Thanks, 2DV.
despite the name, I live in VA.
Kaine is running ads that feature him working with George Bush and opposing Obama and they’re running an out and out lie as far as healthcare goes. When they are desperate enough they will bring back macacca. He’s also running radio ads on the local conservative station which could mean either he’s not agitating the base enough and he needs repubs or he’s just so confident that he’s wasting money.
From what I’ve seen, there have been fewer TV ads for Obama in VA over the last few days but that could mean he’s retooling. as far as signage goes, lots of republicans representing and even my neighbor had his Romney sign stomped.
They have a big machine in the Commonwealth and I don’t expect them to go quietly. If they are staying, I expect a push over the weekend into the debate and next week will be a huge buy.
Or running out of loot. Even the RATS don't know how much they owe.
Lack of money never stopped Barry.
They have so many vendors, contractors and subs that they never really have a handle on their debt until after the smoke clears. Candidates usually start debt retirement the week after elections.
When I worked in that industry, the democrats were allowed to carry debt out for over 12 months with the union shops. It was so bad, nobody would do business with them except three or four shops and everyone else demanded payment up front. Those weasels tried to get out of paying postage one time.
5 emails from the Obama team yesterday. Won’t you just give $5.00?
Oh, please-----Romney needs to be very very wary of these claims.
The Ohaha Team is plotting a very crafty strategy----lying about their campaign outlays-----the same callous cadre that blatantly lied about four Americans killed in Benghazi.
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Ohaha's legislative tricks were intended to fuel his reelection: the so-called TARP stimulus hid zillions in several states---in NJ alone $17.6 Billion was sent and promptly disappeared when it landed there. Fact is, Obama and the Chi/mobsters running his campaign have zillions salted away.
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Do not underestimate the dirty cash the Ohahas/Chi-mob can come up with to fix the election......remember, these are the kingpins of Chicago politics. At one time, conscientious FEC investigators verified money was coming from legal citizens....but if Obama wins there will be no investigations. Remember, there are billions unaccounted for in Obama's stimulus packages....you can be sure the Ohaha kingpins have tons of money stashed away.
POINTS TO PONDER
<><> author Dean Koontz estimates there's about $90 billion missing from the US Treasury.
<><> Ohaha's ex-COS Chi/Mayor Rahm Emanuel is one Chi/mobster running the reelection campaign---this Wall Street turd knows where all the money is hidden. Rahm also controlled all US Treasury assets (at Obama's behest) when he was COS.
<><>The Ohahas took control of the census upon taking office----they have all the necessary CV to phony up contribution reports for the FEC.
THIS MADE ME LAUGH OUT LOUD Obama's ex-COS "Wall Street Rahm" "suddenly" discovered he wanted to be Chicago mayor---so the dancing little turd went before the mics and announced his mayoral campaign "raised $10 million in just a few weeks" .........(cue laugh machine).
Rahm also controlled the US Treasury as COS. This turd-o-crat knows where all the stolen Federal money is hidden....Wall Street knows how to make money disappear faster than a cream puff at a Weight Watcher weigh-in.
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ROMNEY NEEDS TO WATCH FOR PHONY FEC REPORTS The Ohaha's "say" they added $45 million to reelection coffers in February.....raised jointly by the DNC, "Obama for America" and two other joint fundraising committees — the "Obama Victory Fund" and the "Swing State Victory Fund,"...and whatever other voter frauds they dream up.
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Obama's open mic slip in Russia revealed his hidden agenda. He didnt say "after the election, or “after the next election.” He said: “This is my last election" ....... reassuring the Ruskis that he'll then have "more flexibility after the election....”
Clearly Ohaha's certainty WRT staying in offce is not based on his approval ratings or massive opposition to his cockamamie polices----mandated healthcare, trillion dollar stimulus, using aborted babies' brains in lab experiments, giving himself massive executive power over Americans, co-opting religious beliefs, $4-Plus gas, 16% real unemployment, trillion dollardeficits, escalating inflation at the supermarket, the GSA spending scandal......to name a few.
No. Ohaha's certainty stems from his knowledge that he will stay in office---not by the will of the people---but by buying his reelection with federal money....using massive vote fraud.
Remember, voter fraud is the Chi/mobs' specialty---do NOT underestimate Rahm and Axelrod (both running O's reelection), and Valerie whatsherface in the WH.
Let us not forget----the minute they hit the WH, the Chi/mob went into action: the WH Chi/mob took over the census---and now have all the CV they need to file phony FEC reports using stolen federal dollars as campaign contributions.
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2012 Ohaha deviates are using the 2008 Anita (Mao) Dunn strategy to manipulate voters, to downplay Ohaha's destructive policies ....and his scary plans for the next term. Dunn said THEY and only THEY decided what the media should know about 2008 candidate Ohaha.
The strategy is already in place---watch the Ohahas copping that "don't worry--we're harmless" attitude.
I met McGovern a few years ago. He was an arrogant a$$. He had that fundamental progressive belief that if America had just given him power and money, he was smart enough to have figured everything out and have made everything the way it should be.
Tower of Babel.
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