Don't get cocky kid!!!
Posted on 09/07/2012 9:00:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The American Research Group (ARG) poll of the race between Mitt Romney and President Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.
The sampling of the ARG poll differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.
The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.
If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll...
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
From your keyboard to God’s ears.
When they openly state on national TV [and that waste of time, Twitter] that they want to “kill Mitt Romney”, a bumper sticker or yard sign could be very, *very* dangerous in some ‘multicultural’ areas.
Yet I’m seeing R&R signs in some really crazy places.
I’ve literally done double takes.
While a lot of Dems may vote Republican, I don’t think the GOP has an identification lead, and certainly not of 4 points. However, in 08, ARG and Ras were the closest in getting Obama’s number (52+%), although Fox came out on top by getting the difference right, but way undercounted McCain. Translation : both Ras and ARG are pretty good.
. . . For his 2014 Hawaii senate race:)
However, our important swing county here made 85,000 (!!) calls last month, the most in the nation, and they have, as Rove did in 2004, identified every GOP and swing voter in the county for door knocks, which start this week.
I’ll put in another $100 today on your behalf.
I think it’s silly to call Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin swing states as many liberal outfits are. I do believe that an electoral victory for Romney and a popular vote victory for Obama has about a 10% gamblers chance of happening. If you were playing keno, top bottom, the chance of a tie would be about 10%. The chance of an Obama electoral victory would be less than .5%.
Don't get cocky kid!!!
At least Romney will not be supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in their quest to esatablish a caliphate. That and dozens of other similar differences make Romney worth supporting.
Obama’s approval is below 50 percent in Oregon and Maine. That’s why some have them in the “leans Democrats” rather that “solid Democrat” columns. If there is a blow-out, they could conceivably go Republican. Maine just did it with a clean sweep in 2010.
Obama’s support in California is barely hitting 50 percent. This state has very high unemployment. I would not say it is impossible for Cali to go Romney. Unlikely, but not impossible.
It sounds like you guys are doing a great job!
For the first time in decades, pollsters should be put on notice that ‘juicing’ the numbers to keep the election tight is not going to work.
So far, a couple of them have seen the handwriting on the wall and are reducing the number of +dems in their analysis.
The rest will have to follow suit to stay relevant in future elections.
Wow, no Obama stickers in Berkeley?!
I don’t ever remember an election with so few bumper stickers, it’s downright strange.
Do tell!
Dem infested Frederick MD and Berkeley Springs/Martinsburg WV, right off the top of my head.
*Northern VA* in the Fairfax/Manassas area.
In south-western PA, they’re everywhere.
Thank you. That’s great news!
The Ras numbers don’t make sense to me as every other poll I see over samples Democrats, never Republicans.
Really? The RNC’s first move every election is to write off NY & CA.
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