Posted on 09/07/2012 9:00:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The American Research Group (ARG) poll of the race between Mitt Romney and President Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.
The sampling of the ARG poll differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.
The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.
If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll...
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
you say: “Dont believe the Gallop polls or other leftist polls Romney is doing very well.”
Gallop was showing Romney a good lead a while back - they got a Chi-Town call, veiled threat, from the AX man himself, Axelrod.
When that didn’t bring them in line - as the others seem to have been, Holder SUED them!
https://fellowshipofminds.wordpress.com/2012/09/07/displeased-with-poll-numbers-obama-sics-lawsuit-on-gallup/
So no, don’t worry about the regular pollsters. Beleive what YOU hear and see...
Wow. So the message to Romney is he can govern as leftwing as he wants.
“People know what must be done to this Manchurian Candidate.”
That is what I think too.
I live in the non-swing state of NJ, but there are solid republican areas here, I live in one of those and I work in the total Dem hive of Hudson County.
Obviously every day I drive from one location to the other (uphill, both ways!)
This year I have seen almost NO bumper stickers at all. I have seen a few for Obama (some are leftovers, some you can’t tell, some are definitely new) and NONE for Romney. (I’m going to buy a magnet for him, hubby says: no bumper stickers!)
But I can tell you for a fact that when I moved to this heavily republican area 4 years ago, at just this same time of year, there were TONS of McCain/Palin stickers and signs. To me it was like we had moved to heaven, I’ll always remember it.
This year, nothing.
But....nothing for the other side either.
Now, I suppose this could betoken a completely turned off electorate, that could very well be true. But, nevertheless millions of people are going to vote in November.
I think the public has to a large extent made their decisions. The unmoving polls show that. And I don’t expect the polls to change much, although R/R could take a tad of a lead.
I HAVE to think they are going to win. I’m worried about it ALL THE TIME, but I cannot believe Obama will be re-elected. He has done NOTHING to deserve it.
So, I think people are just already decided, it’s going to come down to turn out (our side WILL turn out) and which way the independents go (and I hope they’ll go our way).
Thanks! I was actually surprised that the Romney campaign would call me since Im in SoCal and Obama has this state in the bag but she said that he was contacting everyone for one final push to get as many donations as possible
Jersey is hopeless.
I have gotten the feeling that since Romney picked Ryan and did the beautiful political Judo move by going after Medicare by pointing out Obama already raided it for Obamacare....the game was on.
That week told me Romney was not like McCain, he was going to slug it out.
Leading up to the RNC Convention, the Dems seemed to have severe difficulty defending Obamacare’s raid on Medicare. IMHO the only thing that saved the Dems before the Tampa convention was some idiot in the Mid West opening his trap about rape and abortion.
The RNC Convention was very good IMHO - I liked the tone. They were not over the top RED MEAT. The Conservative Base is, if not behind Romney 100%, they are at least against Obama 100%. They were talking to the middle, they were talking to the Reagan Democrats that still lurk out there. They didn’t bash them over the head with “Are you stupid or something? Why did you vote for Obama 4 years ago?”. They instead used a air of disappointment in his performance. Paul Ryan’s line about living in your parents house out of college and out of a job looking at a faded Obama poster. That line hit home.
Tampa showed good diversity, not that the MSM would show it.
But mostly it was one Governor after the other showing America that again and again they tacked high debts, and all without raising taxes.
Romney speech was good - wasn’t great. It didn’t need to be. We know the mistakes from electing a person just because they can read from a teleprompter. The only Romney bio tidbit they left out was him donating his inheritance to charity. The left still portrays him as a person with a silver spoon in his mouth.
Bottom line - all Romney had to do at the RNC Convention was to appear as a viable candidate. That’s it. The best RED MEAT of the whole convention was done my Clint Eastwood. I guess I watch too much AMC with my father. But I saw the Jimmy Stewart bit for what it was for. I saw a interview of Clint about a week before, he was promoting his new film, the guy is a sharp as a tack.
Nobody knew that in a few days #EmptyChairDay would be all over the place.
I think pendulum has moved. The final factor will be the 1st debate, the topic is the Economy. If Romney wins, it will be a Reagan landslide, if he draws even, he still wins. I cant imagine Romney losing a debate on the economy....
I’m in L.A. and a young guy (who said he was a college student on a Ramen noodles diet) called me tonight, too, soliciting donations for Romney. Told him I could not afford to contribute (retired on fixed income) but will support Romney. Also told him that I lived on a noodles diet right out of college during the Jimmy Carter years.
And that’s what the model from the Colorado profs has predicted....53 47 Mitt with 320EV
BWAHAHAAHAHA ... evil genius
A young woman called me(She wasn’t in LA that’s for sure she asked me what the weather was like here, I told her hot of course) she said she is calling everyone asking for 100 dollar donations, when I told her that I am one of the millions who are currently unemployed she said that she just got hired as a receptionist, I congratulated her and she asked me if I could give a 35 dollar donation. I told her that money is tight but that a vote is much more precious than any amount of money. She sounded upbeat, I even suggested that they have an Ad showing the DNC delegates booing God and Israel, told her it would make a great Ad, she said they are working on it
Thanks very much for this ping, Perdogg.
Woohoo! Yeah!
I believe CA will swing for R & R.
No one is putting R&R bumper stickers on their cars because they are afraid of being “keyed” by a disgruntled and vicious Dem. They fight real dirty.
Almost exactly the same dialog with me. Must be part of their script. The young man asked me about the weather here and said he was calling from Minnesota. Asked for $200, then $100, then $35 donation, but I said I couldn’t donate at this time. I have two friends who have the same kind of fundraising jobs, but for the Dems. They earn a commission based on the amount of donations they bring in.
That's my theory also.
On my way home today, in Berkeley and in Oakland (CA) I kept looking for bumper stickers for either side, and could see NONE on car after car. I saw ONE BO 2012 sticker on one car, and ONE "True Blue Democrat" sticker on another, and that was it!
I kept thinking, "All those bare bumpers do not represent undecided voters." These were all people on their way home from work. They all had jobs. They have things in mind.
I don't know. Until Romney can admit Romneycare was wrong, I'm not even sure he even wants to win. Unless he can even make that token move towards moderates and conservatives, I think it's a waste of time.
“I believe CA will swing for R & R.”
I am in So Cal (Eastern LA County - Diamond Bar), a failry Conservative area. There is little suport either way. 4 years ago I saw a good number of McCain/Palin signs and a few 0bama signs. This year nothing.
I disagree R/R will win CA. We are too blue and not going back. I do think R/R will do much better than McCain 4 years ago hear, probably lose by about a 54-46 margin.
If they came out of the closet, possibly. Otherwise no.
You’re right about people not putting the Romney bumper stickers on for fear of car damage. Our county Republican headquarters in rural Maryland can’t keep Romney yard signs in stock. People are getting yard signs, but not many bumper stickers.
I get around that by keeping a Reagan sticker on my pickup year round. Conservatives know what I mean, and liberals don’t know what’s going on. Plus an NRA sticker to keep the mischief away.
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