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Florida Predictions: Closer Than You Think
WeArePolitics.com ^ | 1/31/2012 | Bill Knowles

Posted on 01/31/2012 2:56:42 PM PST by Billlknowles

Ok...I've been wrong before and I will be again....But here's my predictions for tonights' Florida Primary:

Newt will fare much better than expected. Santorum will do a little better than expected as well. Romney may win this, but it will be a much closer race than most people think. Almost every poll in South Carolina put Romney almost exactly where he ended up and the same was true in New Hampshire. To me, this denotes that undecideds are going heavily toward Gingrich, or other candidates as was the case in New Hampshire. In South Carolina, most of the polls showed Gingrich at least 8% lower than his actual vote totals, with the exception of the Public Policy Poll. The Real Clear Politics average of all the polls showed Gingrich up 5% in South Carolina, when in fact he won by 12.6%. Santorum was polled at 11.8%...and finished at 17%...Romney polled at 28.5% but finished below it at 27.8%. Using the PPP as a guide, as it was the largest poll and most diverse if the pattern holds true for Romney he will finish with 39%. Gingrich is already leading Tea Party members and Evangelicals, according to the notes in the PPP poll. If that pattern holds true, then the same results will occur that happened in South Carolina. Gingrich should increase his total from 31% to 38-39% making this too close to call. I see Santorum going to 17% with Ron Paul getting about 6% of the total.

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TOPICS: Florida; Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: flaprimaryresults; florida; mittromney; newtgingrich
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1 posted on 01/31/2012 2:56:45 PM PST by Billlknowles
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To: Billlknowles

Fill in the blank: “I am enthusiastic to vote for Mitt Romney because __________________”.

If you can’t answer “...because he is electable”, what other reason is there?


2 posted on 01/31/2012 2:59:37 PM PST by Haiku Guy (As soon as Romney / Is not "inevitable" / He drops like a stone)
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To: Billlknowles

Let’s hope you are right.


3 posted on 01/31/2012 3:02:02 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.)
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To: Haiku Guy

Im old and senile and live in Fl. And Romney is good looking and I believe the attack ads?


4 posted on 01/31/2012 3:02:54 PM PST by goseminoles
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To: Billlknowles

How long should it take to have all of the votes counted?


5 posted on 01/31/2012 3:07:17 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: goseminoles

The “Luntz People” constantly harp that they hate negative ads, and yet, they work.


6 posted on 01/31/2012 3:07:22 PM PST by Reagan69 (I supported Sarah Palin and all I got was a lousy DVD !)
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To: Billlknowles

7 posted on 01/31/2012 3:08:35 PM PST by tsowellfan (If its between Obama and Romney, there isnt all that much difference - George Soros)
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To: goseminoles

Hopefully, anybody that out of it will spend all of today searching for their car keys and never make it to the polling booth.


8 posted on 01/31/2012 3:08:35 PM PST by Haiku Guy (As soon as Romney / Is not "inevitable" / He drops like a stone)
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To: goseminoles

Please post times and locations when you will be driving.


9 posted on 01/31/2012 3:25:49 PM PST by X-spurt
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To: goseminoles

who started the rumor that romney is soooo good looking anyway? i don’t get it.


10 posted on 01/31/2012 3:33:58 PM PST by cpray (We'll put a boot in your a**, it's the American way)
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To: X-spurt

Lol. Im 41and of sound mind. Im filling in the blank. Just to add something. I went to three polling places in Tallahassee( long story). And all three were completely empty. Not nary a voter in sight. The good news is, I don’t know one Romney voter. All my friends are Newt or Paul supporters.


11 posted on 01/31/2012 3:34:24 PM PST by goseminoles
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To: cpray

I met him a month or so ago. Im not queer. Maybe I should have worded it that he looks “presidential”. Old people fall for looks and this state is full of them.


12 posted on 01/31/2012 3:37:28 PM PST by goseminoles
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To: goseminoles

Are you sure it was a polling place? Or was it a gas station? What year is this?


13 posted on 01/31/2012 3:37:39 PM PST by entropy12 (Socialism has failed everywhere tried. It breeds mediocrity, corruption, nepotism & poverty for all)
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To: Haiku Guy
---not!

vaudine

14 posted on 01/31/2012 3:47:00 PM PST by vaudine
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To: Billlknowles

One realworld problem: As many as 30% of votes were “early voters and absentee,” long before the SC debate-inspired Gingrich charge.


15 posted on 01/31/2012 3:47:00 PM PST by MindBender26 (New Army SF and Ranger Slogan: Vengeance is Mine, sayeth the Lord.... but He subcontracts!)
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To: entropy12

What’s your point smartass??


16 posted on 01/31/2012 3:49:57 PM PST by goseminoles
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To: cpray

I don’t get it either. You can’t even see his eyes for his mean looking overly bushy eyebrows. And his hair ...I don’t know what you call it — he looks like a logger — or a woodchopper or something.


17 posted on 01/31/2012 3:50:26 PM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Haiku Guy

Iiiiiaaaaah live in St. Petersburg, Floooorida (God’s Waiting Room) ........ aaaand myyyy old ‘23 Ford doesn’t haaaave keeeeys.

It haaaasss a, a, a, craaank!


18 posted on 01/31/2012 3:50:58 PM PST by MindBender26 (New Army SF and Ranger Slogan: Vengeance is Mine, sayeth the Lord.... but He subcontracts!)
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To: LibsRJerks
he looks like a logger — or a woodchopper or something.

Or a woodpecker....I think his hair makes him look like a bird!

19 posted on 01/31/2012 3:55:37 PM PST by CAluvdubya (My preferred taglines are not in the running...)
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To: entropy12

Freaking troll. Don’t F with me tonight. Im pissed and on a roll..


20 posted on 01/31/2012 3:57:38 PM PST by goseminoles
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