Posted on 01/23/2012 10:19:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
From Public Policy Polling, whose poll shows a slightly smaller lead (5 percentage points) for Newt Gingrich than two others today that had him up by 8 and 9 percentage points, respectively:
PPP's first post-South Carolina poll in Florida finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead. He's at 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Rick Santorum, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich's has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney's has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).
Here's the good news for Gingrich in this poll:
1) His supporters are more committed than Romney's. 78% of his voters say they'll definitely vote for him compared to 73% for Romney, and among folks whose minds are completely made up he leads by 9 points at 45-36.
2) If Rick Santorum drops out between now and next Tuesday, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. His voters prefer Gingrich over Romney 50-23, and in a field where he's no longer a candidate Newt's lead expands to 43-36.
3) Voters see him as better positioned ideologically than Romney. 52% think his views are 'about right' compared to 42% for Romney. Only 14% of voters think he's 'too liberal' compared to 25% for Romney.
4) Newt is drawing out new voters....
(Excerpt) Read more at miamiherald.typepad.com ...
Does anyone remember poll numbers changing this quickly in a presidential primary race before?
Nope.
Newt’s lead will likely grow in the next coming days, as people read about the debates and Newt pays for some air time.
Go Newt!
Newt won South Carolina by double digits. That would be the end of the story if Mittens had won that big. We have been hearing it for years, South Carolina infallibly picks the eventual nominee. Not this time though according to Karl Rove and the rest of the Washington DC insider crowd that has Romney’s back.
There are a large number of absentee ballots already cast. This so-called ‘early voting’ won’t reflect Newt’s recent surge of momentum. Are there any number crunchers out there that can give context to what we might expect in the Florida primary?
The numbers expressed here on FR states that Romney gets at most a 1% or 2% benefit. Where the percentages are now, at Newt 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, the percentages are tight but Newt is still in the lead.
Mitt Romney did not do himself proud at this debate. He came off as desperate. That will not help him gain support.
Well, Newt has something the other candidates do not, and that’s a good record. He has a history of standing up to Clinton and forcing him towards the center, with the result that we got welfare reform, budget surpluses, and good progress towards reigning in out-of-control federal spending.
Mitt gave Massachusetts Romneycare. *shudder*
Rick is probably a decent conservative, but I don’t know anything about him on which to judge.
The me too-ism's, the snarkey-ness, made him look less than Presidental.
Newt's answer about the Space Program was probably the best answer I have heard in a long time in regards to vision and move beyond the bureaucratic model. His answer about being humbled about the challenges of his potential Presidency and how screwed up we are was sobering. Many here feel the same way, I know I have thought that myself. IMHO he gets it...
It is to be noted that in South Carolina Gingrich successfully defended against these negative ads with two of the most remarkable debate performances our system has ever witnessed. In the wake of the Florida debate it now becomes clear that Gingrich will not succeed in defending his lead, if he succeeds at all, by boffo debates which galvanize the party, including women as well is independents, and catapults him into the lead.
But then Gingrich already has the lead.
Instead in this debate Gingrich has chosen to go into a prevent defense while Romney threw Hail Mary passes. I believe Gingrich's main objective was to deprive Romney and the and the media of the soundbites they sought with which to make Gingrich look like Goldwater as he models himself after Reagan.
So our question remains unanswered, assuming Gingrich does not have the money to wage a very expensive air war in Florida combat Romney's negative ad blitz campaign, will he be able to hold his lead? He failed to do so in Iowa and he got little traction in New Hampshire. What does he intend to do in Florida?
Perhaps the assumption that Gingrich does not have money enough to engage in a media campaign in a large state like Florida is wrong. Yesterday's headline was that he had received $1 million in hours and I have no doubt that his well-heeled backers in Nevada will provide more now that he is showing the rest of the field his heels. The money should now flow in, but will it flow fast enough?
I understand that Gingrich intends to make a series of major policy speeches in Florida beginning of the Space Coast. I think this is wonderful, but I do not think that it will come close to being adequate against the kind of negative media campaign we saw in Iowa which no doubt will be put on steroids in Florida.
I would like to see Gingrich mount a slashing attack on Obama in the wake of the state of the union address. This then might go viral on the Internet or it could be the source of soundbites for a longer add. Somehow, Gingrich's got to get the subject onto Obama and off his own history. He need not attack Romney, make Obama the target and ignore Romney to death. But if Gingrich does not seize the momentum and dominate the scene, he will be put on defense by Romney and at best be able to squeak out only a narrow victory in Florida.
The prevent defense might work late in the fourth quarter but we just had the opening kickoff.
By the way, I share your reaction to Gingrich's sobering analysis of what's needed now in the presidency.
"Newt’s lead will likely grow…Let's hope so. inSanetorum could suck just the right number to profane the thing.
I think we’ve reached the point now where Rick Santorum needs to decide if he want to be considered for a V.P. slot and/or a future Presidential run, or if he wants to go the way of Alan Keyes and Mike Huckabee.
All Rick can do now is harm us; he cannot help anyone but Romney.
Rest assured, I will be among those who never let Rick Santorum’s name get uttered without pointing out what he did to us in 2012 should Romney win this nomination because of his bone-headed obstinance.
What say you, Senator? Do you want future consideration for higher office? Or are you going to continue to gamble it all away on a million-to-one shot in 2012 because tomorrow is too long to wait?
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