Posted on 06/02/2011 4:39:16 PM PDT by goods
In only four of the 38 elections since 1860 did the incumbent party lose the White House after holding it for only one term. Three of them took place in the 1888-1896 era when Republican Harrison won the WH against incumbent Democrat Cleveland in 1888; then Cleveland won it back in 1892, and then Republican McKinley won in 1896. The next time the White House flipped after a party held it for only one full term, was in 1980 when Republican Reagan defeated one-termer Democrat Carter.
Despite the extremely bad economy and hostage situation of 1980, Reagan won less than 51% of the popular vote in November, and Carter lost only after A) he had a tough, all-the-way inner-party Primary Election from Kennedy and Brown, and B) a third party candidate chipped away at him from the Left during the General Election in November.
This isn’t all. In a few elections of the last hundred years, the incumbent party lost after two-three terms only and/or largely due to having extreme internal rifts which led to Third-party candidate chipping away from the own base Here are a few noticeable instances:
ü After winning four WH terms, the Republicans had a deep party rift in 1912 and a third party candidate, permitting Democrat Wilson to win with only 41% of the popular vote.
ü In 1968, after two terms in the WH, the Democrats were fractured permitting Republican Nixon to win despite neting only 43% of the popular vote.
ü In 1992, after three WH terms, the Republicans first had a Primary and then a strong third party candidate that ran to the Right of Bush 41 in the general, permitting Democrat Clinton to win despite pulling in only 43% of the popular vote.
ü After two WH terms, the Democrats were going for a third term in 2000, but someone running to the Left from Democrat Gore in the general election, opened the door for Republican Bush to win.
With unemployment this high and the economy it’s going to be uphill.
Of course we can count on the Pubbies blowing their foot off then all bets are off.
Good thing Obama is worse than Carter, so it looks like it’s a lock for him to lose. The only way he won’t lose is if the race card wins again.
Goods, this has to be a goddam blog pimp...c’mon, you’re really this yosiwhatever ain’t you? 150 years of relatively sane political interaction and you equate this with the very first of everything we’ve experienced with this clown? It’s not even worth the time to discount crap like this any more.
Yes, with high UR! Read the article before writing. Saw the point regarding Reagan in 1980?
Oh yeah, more hope.</s>
It won’t be because of history Obama could win. It is because repubs will savage each other until all become too seriously damaged.
The one thing that is now being illustrated on a daily basis is just how dictatorial the Federal government has become.
This latest decree from HHS is just another example.
I guess we’ll need to make some history of our own. It’ll be “historic”, “unprecedented”, “first time ever”......
yitbos
Never in our history have we had a situation like this. IF the GOP fields a decent candidate (someone other than Romney), they will win.
In 150 years of US history, we’ve had idiot Presidents, we’ve had socialist Presidents, we’ve had Presidents in over their heads, but there’s never been a President who is all three. And the only one who was actually trying to kill Americans was Lincoln, who had to “burn the village down to save it.”
Two words: Jimmy Carter.
He’ll be wining and dining if winning a second term.
Carter lost because he was incomptent. Obama is twice as bad as Carter.
Landslide for any Conservative hands down
I did read the article. This time things are very different.
To compare this situation to 1980 is laughable. I lived through the 70’s. You could get work in the late 70’s. This is worse.
Wining, Winning, or Whining?
And since FDR Clinton is the only Democrat President to win two elections and Bush 41 is the only Republican President to lose his second election.
Thank you, Ross Perot.
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