Posted on 05/26/2011 7:26:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
At any point in 2009 or 2010, news that Sarah Palin was taking "concrete steps" toward launching a presidential campaign would have sent the political world into an absolute frenzy, with Democrats rejoicing, Republican leaders panicking, and cable news channels shifting into "all Sarah, all the time" overdrive.
But things are a little different now, and while a report in Thursday's New York Times that Palin is sending fresh and unmistakable signals that she may join the GOP's 2012 field is certainly generating conversation, this hardly feels like the earth-shattering, campaign-altering development we once assumed it would be.
What's changed?
The short answer, as I outlined a while back, is that the Republican Party establishment reacted intelligently to the midterm election results last November. Yes, on the whole the results were fantastic for the GOP -- a victory as sweeping as any party had seen in decades. But most of the GOP's midterm success wasn't earned; it was the inevitable product of mass economic anxiety, total Democratic control of Washington, and all of the low-hanging fruit created by the Democrats' landslide victories in 2006 and 2008 (which placed dozens of Democratic incumbents in districts that are naturally Republican).
The GOP establishment, to its credit, seemed to recognize this and focused instead on the '10 races that on paper should have been Republican victories, but weren't: Senate races in Delaware, Nevada and Colorado, for instance. And the reason for these defeats was obvious: The races were high-profile enough that candidate quality mattered, and Republican nominees (Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle, Ken Buck) all had serious, fundamental flaws. For the establishment, the implication for 2012 was obvious: The same party base that picked these candidates is liable to choose Palin and cost us a winnable election -- unless we step in.
It was against this backdrop that an unofficial "stop Palin" campaign was launched by opinion-shaping GOP "elites" in the months after the midterm. Conservatives with credibility with the GOP rank-and-file -- including Charles Krauthammer, Andrew Breitbart and even Bill Kristol (the man widely given credit for "discovering Palin while on an Alaska cruise in 2007) -- began delivering the message in subtle and not-so-subtle ways: Let's find someone else to be our standard-bearer against Barack Obama. By the end of December, there was reason to believe this was having an impact, as Palin's numbers -- which had long been poisonous outside of the Republican Party -- showed serious slippage among GOP voters.
Then came Tucson. When Palin issued her tone-deaf "blood libel" response to criticism of the "crosshairs" image of Gabrielle Giffords she'd once used on her website, Palin gave GOP elites a perfect opening to do permanent, lasting damage to her standing, and they happily piled on. As I wrote at the time, Palin actually had something of a legitimate gripe (there was no direct or indirect link between her website and Giffords' shooting), but that was beside the point; GOP elites used the occasion the same way the Democratic establishment used John Kerry's "botched joke" a few years earlier -- as a tool to marginalize an unwanted national candidate. The incident also apparently cost Palin dearly with elites who hadn't yet turned on her; according to a new profile, Roger Ailes, the Fox News chief who is now one of the most important men in GOP politics, counseled Palin to stay quiet after the Giffords shooting -- and was baffled and infuriated when she spoke out.
As a result of all of this, Palin will enter the GOP race -- if she does decide to run -- as a marginalized figure. She has plenty of fans among the party's grass roots, universal name recognition, and probably the ability to raise some serious money in small donations. But the most influential voices on the right are almost universally opposed to her now, and are committed to communicating this to the rank-and-file. They are convinced she'd be a disatrous general election candidate, and she's also done a fine job (with moves like this) showing them that she's not a team player.
A Palin campaign would probably play out similarly to the second phase of Gary Hart's 1988 presidential campaign, when he jumped back in the race (seven months after dropping out amidst a sex scandal) two months before the New Hampshire primary, and quickly found himself atop the polls. But all was not well. Hart, who had been the front-runner when he'd dropped out, still had many grass-roots admirers, but his negative numbers were also unusually high, among all voters and even among Democrats. And the party establishment treated him like poison; they didn't want him anywhere near their general election ticket. He couldn't build a serious campaign organization, rank-and-file voters got the message, and Hart -- even though he'd been a national political sensation between 1984 and 1987 -- was a nonfactor in the '88 primaries.
Granted, Palin might not do quite as badly as Hart did. She could potentially fare well in Iowa. But she's so alienated her party's elites that she now faces a clear ceiling. No doubt, the GOP establishment would prefer it if she simply decided not to run. But the prospect of her candidacy no longer terrifies them. They've got this one under control.
~25 to 30% of the population is so smitten and brainwashed by Obama, and/or so dedicated to being a leech on society, that they’d vote for a Democrat even if he wore a Klan hood to campaign rallys. So once you consider that un-changeable bloc, Obama only needs to win a third of the remaining vote.
The GOP needs a DAMN GOOD candidate.
Very funny and as much as I hate to admit it, my friends are very taxing at times! No pun intended!
Christine O’Donnell is no Sarah Palin.
I’ll give you that, but the basics are still there - i.e., she’s nowhere near as electable as her supporters think she is.
20% unemployment is depression era unemployment. These people have families and friends who know they’re unemployed and that there are no jobs available. I don’t care how many leeches there are on current society. There are enough Americans left that realize the current admin isn’t cutting it. America needs a whirlwind. Palin is it.
“...when Palin resigned her position as Governor she lost them 100%, no coming back.”
No coming back, my arse. They never were there to start with, so it’s a fake argument!
JC
You wrote:
“Ok I’m going to make a prediction (not that anyone cares).
Palin, Bachman, Cain, and Romney are going to run. Conservatives are going to panic because they are afraid their vote is going to splinter and give the nomination to Romney.
The GOP establishment likes like Rove are going to “save the day” and out will come governor goodhair Rick Perry.
He will get the nomination and beat bozo, and he will disappoint us, but at least keep America from going over the cliff.
I know its a lot to stomach, but I just have that feeling.
Or maybe I shouldn’t eat Taco Bell anymore.”
Your prediction is what I call ‘The Rosy Scenario’.
And Taco Bell is crap, anyway. Binning behind a restaurant would be better eating.
Bullcrap,, SO you opine that some Obama voters were possibly interested in Sarah, until she resigned? After THEY hounded her with a new ethics lawsuit every week?
They also sued her for raising money for her legal defense and insisted she pay it out of her pocket.
Im glad she resigned. It freed her to do what she’s doing now. Imagine the screeching from “your friends” if she started the tour while still Governor. Everytime she left Alaska, they would screech that she wasn’t doing her job back home.
We know the game,,, and your Obama friends were NEVER going to vote for her. She’s the polar opposite of him,,,troll.
I'd NEVER have a "friend" who was a democRAT!
But, that's just me.....
I don’t know that much about you GizzyGirl, but from your postings, DesertRhino is right... You are a troll.
My friends are moderate, and I’m not out here to cause a stir, I just posted a sincere comment. I love Sarah Palin and I personally hope she runs as I’d vote for her in a heartbeat, but some of my friends, who honestly do not like Obama or his hope and change anymore will not go her way. I’ll do all I can to convince them otherwise if she joins the race and gets our nomination, but I won’t win. Maybe as time goes by and listening to me talk about the many many things I’ve learned by being here might help, but I stand by my comment. They weren’t laughing and they weren’t cheering, they just could not see past the fact that she didn’t stay and finish what her state elected her to do. My truth is that I’m highly motivated by every speech Sarah offers so don’t beat me up, but we need the moderate voters and I was simply agreeing with another post that they will not come to Sarah.
Intrade bet for Palin to declare presidential run before Dec 31, 2011.................
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=686537&z=1306469462006
If you are pushing Cain then you are going about it wrong.
It seems that you are trying to do for Cain what pissant did for Hunter, manage to turn a lot of his fans against him by attacking the top tier conservative, Governor Palin.
Hunter was my congressman, a man that I had loved for decades, but after a year or so of pissant attacking Palin, it took everything I had not to start dismantling his Duncan Hunter fantasy.
I hope that you don’t force Palin supporters that also like Cain, to get involved in a pissing contest with you, you won’t like the effect on Cain and it won’t serve conservatism.
No honey, it’s not the Fourth of July yet; it’s just the sound of liberals heads exploding.
If FreeRepublic had been around in 1979, I’m sure there’d have been people here backing Lowell Weicker, Poppy Bush, Bob Dole and even John Anderson, because Ronald Reagan was clearly unelectable.
Why do you call it the “Rosy scenario”?
And yes, IMO Taco Bell is crap.
Never doing that again.
Why do you call it the “Rosy scenario”?
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Because it assumes the Republican wins, rather than a re-elected Obama.
Looking forward to the bus tour. It would be fitting if she’d announce at a battlefield actually. Don’t know when, but she’s up for it and her strength and tenacity are admirable. Our country is lucky to have such a fearless woman in the mold of a Margaret Thatcher. She’s going to shake it up and they know it.
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