Does Sarah Palin have a shot at U.S. presidency?

Xinhua ^ | December 21, 2010 | Matthew Rusling

[2ndDivisionVet]

Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.

Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.

If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.

That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.

"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE

Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.

Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.

To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.

The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.

And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.

POSSIBLE STRATEGIES

Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.

Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.

In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.

"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.

Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.

"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."

"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.

Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.

She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.

PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW

Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.

At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.

Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.

Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.

"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.

[freedumb2003]

>>I don’t speak Portuguese. <<

Which explains why Latin is so tough.

[jessduntno]

“I will live in the real world and work to get real candidates who have a chance to win.”

And they are?

[onyx]

Too bad for that you won’t have a say in her nomination or her election. We’re only too happy to do the heavy lifting and work.

Merry Christmas!

[marron]

We could probably scare up one or two more names for that list, honorary or maybe probationary names. But thats it. Its a pretty short list.

Leaders lead. Fighters fight. Careerists polish their resumes and try to orchestrate a coronation. Or send out their toadies to knife their rivals from the shadows.

You’ll notice that the people who are actually focused on taking down Obama waste not one word attacking their Repub rivals. The careerists spend all their time trying to out-maneuver their Repub rivals and can’t be bothered to stand up and take on Obama.

As far as I’m concerned, the field is still open; all you have to do is stand up and take on Obama, boldly. Shouldn’t be too hard; the “short list” has softened him up for you. Stand up and let him have it. START, anyone? DREAM? Speak up. Come out with all flags waiving and let him have it, and I’ll take you seriously.

[jessduntno]

“I will live in the real world and work to get real candidates who have a chance to win.”

And they are?

[freedumb2003]

>>What is it about you Palin-haters that you seem to pre-disposed to project your inadequacies on everyone else? <<

What is it about you Palin-bots that you want to foist complete and total fantasyland on Conservatives?

You continue to confuse your liking of her (and I think she is great) with her appeal to the American public.

Dang, I wish I could share your self-delusion. But then at the end I would have to face the same bitter realization that the Paul-bots had to face.

This is about CALCULUS, not AMORE...

[RobbyS]

Obama will start off losing 12 electoral votes.However, everything depends on what happens during the next year. She could fade or come on strong if events make him the next Carter/Bush I.

[Smokin' Joe]

Who would you suggest? Please don't pester me with Mitt or Huck, or any more middle of the (left-hand-side-of-the) road types.

I'm looking for a Conservative with a fire in their belly who can ignite one in America's belly, too.

Someone who has steadfast values, who walks the walk, doesn't just mouth platitudes and chuck Conservatism under the bus the minute the election is over.

We will not survive long, at least not as America, if we continue compromising which means we need someone who won't.

Eff the MSM, Eff the country-club RINOS, this is our country. They don't bloody well own it.

Daily we lose another freedom and the GOP is not doing very well getting the message out. Sarah Palin is.

So who you got?

[onyx]

Here's a wonderful "PALIN BOT" as you're calling us. I like to save it for special occasions...LOL.

---

To: GoCards; Syncro; Sheila Robinson; All

This was at the Tea Party Express rally in Reno, NV last week (Go Sharron Angle!). The lady in the cowboy hat with the sweet smile is my wife Sheila. And that’s Syncro’s left eyeball in the upper left as he focuses his video camera.

Sarah was introduced to me by Sal Russo (leader of the Tea Party Express) who introduced me as Jim Robinson from freerepublic.com. She said thank you for all you guys have done, then leaned forward and gave me a little cheek to cheek hug. I took it as she loves the FReepers and pass it on to all of you!!

Woo hoo!! FR is Palin Country!!

48 posted on 10/26/2010 12:12:51 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Rebellion is brewing!! Just vote them OUT!!)

[freedumb2003]

>>And they are?<<

Sadly none have emerge yet, but I am seeing some glimmers of hope.

Supporting the best yodeler in Harlem doesn’t mean that person will win in Minnesota.

[jessduntno]

>>You know what Shinola is?<<

“Yep. it is what Palin-bots licked up from the Paul-bots and regurgitate to shine the floor of their fantasies.”

Yep. Shinola ... it’s floor polish ... I thought so. You are a dimwit. Don’t ever come to my house looking for a housekeeping job ... you ain’t smart enough for it.

[jessduntno]

“Sadly none have emerge yet, but I am seeing some glimmers of hope.”

OH? Who are the “glimmers” that you see. And why?

[RobbyS]

Fact is that “qualified” really means an Establishment figure like Romney. Not much difference between Romney and Scott Brown.

[freedumb2003]

The fact Pain is great (and she is) doesn’t make her electable.

It just means we like her.

That and $5 will get you a Starbucks Latte.

You continue to confuse and conflate the concept of “likability to FR” with and to “electable by the USA.”

Yours is not a rational argument, but an emotional one. Great to go to sleep by but not one that feeds the bulldog.

Self-delusion is a very safe haven.

[jessduntno]

“The fact Pain is great (and she is) doesn’t make her electable.”

Interesting Freudian slip, there pal. I’ll bet it is pain for you, isn’t it, when you realize you got nothing? All this BS and it boils down to ... you got nothing but “pain.”

[freedumb2003]

>>Yep. Shinola ... it’s floor polish ... I thought so. You are a dimwit. Don’t ever come to my house looking for a housekeeping job ... you ain’t smart enough for it.<<

I got it right and you still resort to insults.

You can’t stand the idea that if Sara runs it will be a disaster and will lead to carter’s 3rd term. Your analysis: “I LIKE HER!!” Yeah, that works.

Palin-Bots: Paul-Bots who support a cuter version.

[death2tyrants]

First you claim that you work to get real candidates who have a chance to win, but when asked, you can't name any. All the while you spend your time calling Palin supporters names and regurgitating worn out left-wing talking points about Palin. Do you expect people to take you seriously?

[DWar]

Reagan doesn't have a chance. Carter leads him in the polls by 22 points.

Oh wait????? This isn't 1978?

[2ndDivisionVet]

Freedumb2003:

You are over-using “Palin-bots” aren’t you? You still haven’t called us “cultists”, a “cult”, “sheeple”, “Gloria Steinems” or “brainless followers” anywhere in this thread. They’re right there in paragraph four of the Palinoia Platoon talking points that pissant faxed you from The Falcon’s Lair. Did you spill Mountain Dew on it or get peanut butter on it or something?

[jessduntno]

“Palin-Bots: Paul-Bots who support a cuter version.”

A cuter version of what?