Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
“She is an extremely attractive and witty Dan Quayle.”
Something, on your best day, you could never reach up to.
Clearly. You really are under the MSM ether, aren’t you?
Zactly... late at night, when we’re bored and they’re either drunk or whatever.
Mr. Quayle was the second most powerful man in the world for four years, back when we still had a somewhat decent country. That’s a bad thing?
Yep, you’re right. She won, she proved herself in Alaska’s tough and rough politics and she governed with integrity. The Alaksan members here sing her praises and several know her personally. Anyone who hasn’t read “Sarah Takes on Big Oil” really has no business criticizing her, for they know not what they speak.
They’re really pouring it on tonight, aren’t they?
Time will tell if she’s “electable” or not.
Time has already told us that the other “electables” couldn’t be bothered to come out and fight the Obamists; they’ve been waiting for an invitation.
Sorry; if during the fight of the century you were AWOL, you aren’t the “electable” I’m looking for. The list of politicians who actually stood up and took on the Obamists is pretty short. If you aren’t on the list, don’t bother to come knocking come primary season.
>>Your concern is noted along discarded as your very sincerity is in doubt<<
Standard Palin-bot response. Reality which disagrees with the collective mind-set is discarded as “insincere.”
Trust me, sweetness, I am very sincere and I don’t want a flawed candidate to hand the kenyan carter’s 3rd term.
You may disagree with me about the merits of Mrs. Palin, but you don’t get to challenge my motivation.
I want to take back the government to Conservative values.
You are just a simple sycophant to a pretty face who speaks bumper-sticker talk: Conservative Yoda writ large that doesn’t touch middle America and has no chance of winning.
You and your Palin-bots will hand the election to the Left who will finish the job of destroying America.
This is about political CALCULUS and ANALYSIS — not slavish devotion to a deeply flawed, if likable, figurehead.
>>Clearly. You really are under the MSM ether, aren’t you?<<
And you are under the delusional drugs.
You Palin-bots are nuts. You are like actors who read their own press clippings.
Enjoy your fantasy world.
I will live in the real world and work to get real candidates who have a chance to win.
Your take: “I like her, so all of America will.”
Send a unicorn my way, I may need the rainbow it sends from its backside.
Governor Sarah Palin (AK)
Vice President Dick Cheney (WY)
Senator Jim DeMint (SC)
...that's about it.
“Well, I think you may have missed part of the point...Dan Quayle was no “Dan Quayle”, either...THAT is the point. Even you, who knows better, took the appellation as an insult.”
Well, no I didn’t. That was the meaning of the ether line. I was giving an insult. To be that far under the ether is NOT a good thing.
LOL.
She has the largest base of all. Who are you trying to kid? She has TEA Party patriots, aka the conservative base!
I just showed you the Rasmussen poll. She has the INDYS against obama by large margin. Go look again!
She leads the field among conservatives in all eight states, 22/21 over Huckabee in current polling....like this week.
You're out of touch.
Send a unicorn my way, I may need the rainbow it sends from its backside.”
You know what Shinola is?
>>Mr. Quayle was the second most powerful man in the world for four years, back when we still had a somewhat decent country. That’s a bad thing?<<
OK, if that is your response, all I can say is “res ipsa loquitur.”
“I will live in the real world and work to get real candidates who have a chance to win.”
And they are?
“I will live in the real world and work to get real candidates who have a chance to win.”
And they are?
>>You know what Shinola is?<<
Yep. it is what Palin-bots licked up from the Paul-bots and regurgitate to shine the floor of their fantasies.
Then how do you explain Obama's low approval ratings?
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