Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
"Waiting to be killed over and over"?
Tell me you unintentionally left off the /sarc tag.
Post of the Day nominee.
>>You got nothing.<<
ROTFLMAO!!
You get the Most Ironic Post of 2010 (good thing since there are only a few days left but had you posted in on Jan 1, 2010 you would still have won).
Wear it in good health.
So you’re a Vegan or a Vegetarian, I assume?
“You get the Most Ironic Post of 2010 (good thing since there are only a few days left but had you posted in on Jan 1, 2010 you would still have won).”
So, in other words, you still have no answers?
In a word
No.
>>So, in other words, you still have no answers?<<
Reading is FUNdamental, ad hominem-boy.
You don’t have a main point. you just keep repeating that there are better choices but you don’t say who; you keep saying there is a better way but don’t say how; you say the midterms were won because of “blowback” when even the dimmest bulb understands it was the good work and dedication of the Tea Party.
Who are your choices?
You accused Palin of being another Ron Paul, yet when asked in what way, you had nothing.
You then said some nonsense about having a following. Does that in your alleged mind make anyone with a following just like Ron Paul? You said
Really, do you have a thought you can articulate?
I can save you time.
Go back and find all the insults and the like heaped upon me for the same one word answer: just expect you will get the same.
Bad thoughts are punished here in the reality-based community in PalinWorld.
It is pointless with you.
I am not going to repost all my thoughts just for you to go “nanny nanny boo boo.” and place your hands over your eyes because you don’t like the answers.
Like I said, reading is FUNdamental.
Repeating YOURSELF accomplishes nothing but making it look like that is all YOU can do.
You aren’t worth any more time. Go mess with don-o, he answered the same as me.
“I am not going to repost all my thoughts...”
Nothing, huh? You haven’t had a thought yet, professor.
A bit thin skinned methinks.
LOL! Just scanning the thread, I figure all the reality bases are already covered.
Lots of folks quick to flame these days. Thinking things through is a lost art
When the herd begins to stampede, I usually lay low. I was just answering a simple question.
Ditto.
I understand your concerns.
I want you to understand, the republican establishment has a different concern...not that she would lose, but that she would win and screw it up for Jeb in 2016.
That is why you have this non stop criticism from the Karl Rove’s and George Will’s, et.al.
I would like you to watch this ABC nightline interview, and you tell me ...how many more of these she will have to do to erase the horrible disgrace you are obsessing about with Katie Couric?
Because it is obvious to me, a couple more interviews like this and all will be forgotten.
Also, it’s still two years out. She will have every opportunity in the debates and in interviews and if she falls flat she won’t win...but don’t hold your breath.
Obama is weak and has lost his base. They don’t have to switch to support Palin, just stay home, as they did in 2010.
The road to a Republican victory will be easy, and Sarah Palin has the charisma and tenacity to win it easily.
Just watch this:
http://conservatives4palin.com/2010/12/governor-palin%E2%80%99s-interview-with-robin-roberts-nightline-version-december-16-2010.html
“He may be less interested in a discussion, than nursing his wounds becuse people didn’t agree with what he had to say. A bit thin skinned methinks.”
Thin skinned and thick skulled ... a bad combination for the poor boy. He sure was stubborn though, gotta hand that to him.
What proof do you have she can win?
It's the sniping on the sidelines at someone who is doing the hard work of being a conservative spokesman that bothers me, someone who is in the trenches doing battle with the insane lib agenda, and an effective fighter at that.
It’s the sniping on the sidelines at someone who is doing the hard work of being a conservative spokesman that bothers me, someone who is in the trenches doing battle with the insane lib agenda, and an effective fighter at that.”
She sure is that. You know what, I don’t think the establishment GOP understands yet (certainly this guy freedumb didn’t get it) is that the political machine will not be as effective (or necessary) in the future, now that we have discovered the internet. If we can keep our “astroturf” movement “that’s how bright they are on the left) out of the hands of the GOP and in the hands of the people, we have a shot at building a REAL conservative groundswell that I think people crave. This lying bastard in the White House convinced everyone he was going to be like Bill Clinton and he turned out to be Karl Marx.
I think America wants a real conservative.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.