2008 Electoral College Votes:
Obama - 365
McCain - 173
All she has to do is figure a way to raise that 173 to 270 and she's got it. If she can maintain all the wins McCain had and then get 97 more votes from the blue states she's in like flynn.
Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
>>Heh heh ... the poor bastard is just flailing now ... maybe he will come away with a better understanding of the value of straight talk.<<<
Your cult of personality obviates any reasonable argumentation.
Palin-bot, Paul-bot, it makes no difference. You use ad hominem because you can’t defend your position rationally.
This is like the old Ron Paul days, except I didn’t/don’t much care for Ron Paul and I absolutely adore Mrs. Palin. I just don’t think she is the right person to put out there as a Presidential candidate.
I think her current roles as firebrand and lightning rod is her best role for all of us.
I didn’t call any of you “leftists” or suggested you are less than intelligent for your beliefs. I suggested you re-examine your analyses away from your emotions.
It is reasonable I ask to receive the same respect.
Sycophantic delusional drug-addicted Palin-bot nut-cases who have a slavish devotion to a deeply flawed loser.<---Your words, not mine. And that is just on this thread alone.
>>You see Sarah Palin as being like Ron Paul?<<
The cult of personality, irrespective of the reality of the political situation, all but demands it.
Concur w/ ur “She shouldn’t have resigned her office. That will cause huge trouble in any Presidential run she makes.”
And I won’t follow your detractors’/insulters’ advice and read her book to get her reasons for quitting; I won’t read any politician’s book, ever.
>>Sycophantic delusional drug-addicted Palin-bot nut-cases who have a slavish devotion to a deeply flawed loser<<
Did I use “drug addicted?”
Wow, I apologize!!! That was just wrong and uncalled for.
Did I really? Jeeze, I feel terrible. A moment of pique.
Remember what they taught you at PI ... save that last round ...
Bye
2008 Electoral College Votes:
Obama - 365
McCain - 173
All she has to do is figure a way to raise that 173 to 270 and she's got it. If she can maintain all the wins McCain had and then get 97 more votes from the blue states she's in like flynn.
>>I didn’t say “her” I said me. I raised over $40,000 for Fred Thompson in the short time he was in the race <<
A bit to the side, but I was deeply, deeply upset at how Mr. Thompson tossed aside the tons of support he had. He was VERY viable, had few negatives and, let’s face it, was viewed as an honest and powerful figure from his L & O persona.
An opportunity missed :(
You have a Great Tag Line! (I stole mine)
Sorry, don’t get your point.
“Ron Paul.”
You see Sarah Palin as being like Ron Paul?
On what do you base this? Feel free to cut and paste from someone you think may be coherent. I’m dying to hear this.
“Ron Paul.”
You see Sarah Palin as being like Ron Paul?
On what do you base this? Feel free to cut and paste from someone you think may be coherent. I’m dying to hear this.
Me either, now that I look at it. Must be because it’s 2:30 in the morning. Time to head for bed...
She just has to win the states Bush won.
I'd have never guessed the 'first black president' being followed immediately with 'the first woman president', but life (and gambling) is like that. Usually, someone else's hand in on the dice when that happens.
“Ron Paul.”
You see Sarah Palin as being like Ron Paul?
You got nothing on this either, am I right, dimwad?
You got nothing but hate. Mommy problems?
See you around the campus, professor.
ps: I wasn’t being sarcastic. I have no idea why I suggested Palin supporters were “drug addled.”
The rest, I think they apply, but not in a bad way. Knowing me, I was kicking back.
I’ll take the states Reagan won in 1984 or Nixon in 1972.
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