Posted on 12/20/2010 10:26:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin was barely a blip on the political radar until she emerged as the running mate for 2008 U.S. presidential candidate John McCain.
Since then, she has gained a following among conservative Republicans, and while she hasn't officially announced any plans to run for president in 2012, her efforts to remain in the public eye seem geared toward that end.
If she did run, however, the question remains of whether she could secure the Republican nomination. And more importantly, there is the question of whether she could become the first female U.S. president, beating President Barack Obama, who is likely to be renominated as the Democratic candidate, in a head-to-head battle.
That seems a tall order, according to some experts and polls.
"PRESIDENT PALIN" -- AN UNLIKELY TITLE
Indeed, a Washington Post-ABC poll published on Friday found that a mere 8 percent of voters said they would definitely vote for Palin in a presidential race, versus 60 percent of respondents who said they definitely would not.
Clay Ramsay, research director at the Center on Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said Palin's chances of winning enough primaries to stay in the game are about 50-50, adding any success beyond such a point is well below that figure.
To win the presidency, Palin would have to climb over three rungs: the primaries, the Republican National Convention, and a general election.
The former governor of Alaska would probably win a few primaries here and there, although her odds of making it through a convention are significantly lower, he said.
And while she has already been through a national campaign in which she showed signs of being her own woman, she also demonstrated a reluctance to accept schooling from professionals, some analysts noted.
POSSIBLE STRATEGIES
Dan Mahaffee, special assistant to the president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said one scenario in which Palin could win the primaries would be to mirror former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 strategy, which was to drum up a coalition of grass roots conservatives and Evangelicals.
Palin would also have to look toward particular geographic regions for support. Being a right-of-center candidate, she would not likely do well in many of the states that lean left. That means she would have to look to more conservative states in an effort to build such a coalition, he said.
In any case, there are certain contenders she could defeat in a one-on-one standoff, such as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has dropped hints in recent weeks that he seeks to run but has made no formal announcement.
"Newt Gingrich has a long past, he has a long and awkward record. There are 20 years of video tape to play. Sarah Palin is still a comparatively fresh face," Ramsay said.
Still, there are a number of possibilities for the 2012 Republican ticket, and Gingrich said earlier this month that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
"Structurally, Romney's the front-runner, and in popularity, probably Huckabee's the front-runner," Gingrich said on "Fox News Sunday."
"Palin is a phenomenon in her own right," Gingrich said.
Mahaffee said the economy would have to remain weak for Palin to win, and other experts noted that Obama's sliding popularity is because of the frail U.S. economy.
She would also have to demonstrate a deeper knowledge of the issues than she has thus far. Indeed, since her arrival on the national scene, critics have derided her as having little knowledge of foreign and other policies.
PALIN'S REALITY TV SHOW
Overcoming those perceptions depends on how successful she is in her current endeavors as a media personality, including public appearances and her "Sarah Palin's Alaska" reality TV show.
At present, the show depicts Palin hiking and road tripping through the Alaskan wilderness in a bid to portray herself as a down-to-earth middle-class American, while distancing herself from what she views as aloof elites in Washington.
Mahaffee, however, questions the show's effectiveness. While it shores up her base, it does little to increase her outreach beyond her current supporters.
Still, the show is no crystal ball of Palin's political fortunes, some experts said.
"When someone is as famous as she is, the whole thing about doing a show on cable is that you have a small but happy and loyal audience, and I don't think it tells you anything about how she's going to play out as a national politician," Ramsay said.
“Palin-Bots: Paul-Bots who support a cuter version.”
A cuter version of what?
That’s a great Defense ... Way to make your point ... Two snaps and talk to the Hand ...
She really irritates you doesn’t she? That’s what is sooo cool, she drives idiots nuts!
The MSM molds and forms basic idiots... you on the other hand must be from one of their more advanced classes ... just a regular idiot. Keep NOT thinking and they will promote you to first class idiot! and just think after that you can rest on your laurels as a SIMPLE Dumbass ... but I wouldn’t set your sights that high if I were you.
Now I’m gonna go shut my mouth KG cause I’m so worried bout you an your “Big Brain” Posse.
TT
You realize your delusion is just Nucking Futz, right?
And I am not alone, but since anyone who gets on a Palin-Bot thread who dares to expose the truth gets attacked (personally) so much that most just give up.
As I am now.
But I will work as hard as possible to make sure Mrs. Palin does not screw up our chance for an electable Conservative (and no, one is not on the horizon yet) to keep the kenyan from getting a 3rd term.
Bella Abzug was a “cuter” version of Ron Paul. I think he needs to set the bar a little higher.
You’re so right, when I posted in 2006 at we were about to get killed in the mid-terms I was told to “buck-up” and that no way could the dems gain enough seats to back congress. I was 100% correct but being accurate is not valued by the cool-aid drinkers
And, no, I don’t want Romney or any other liberal donkey in elephants clothing.
She won’t be nominated, those who think she will should check back with me in 18 mos and we’ll see who got it right!
But I will work as hard as possible to make sure Mrs. Palin does not screw up our chance for an electable Conservative (and no, one is not on the horizon yet) to keep the kenyan from getting a 3rd term.”
Good man (or woman) as the case may be. You didn’t cut and run ... you just blew smoke and ran. Stout heart, go to your rest and fight another day. And about that remark where I called you a dimwit ... I apologize to dimwits everywhere for the slight.
If that's the case, why have elections at all? ABC or NBC should just select our next president, by that logic. Thank you very much, but I'll pass.
I'm going to go to one of her rallies when she comes near my town. You know who I am? I'm the guy who's too often too busy to make a rally, but guess what? I'll make Sarah's.
Those on the Left who fear/smear Sarah are the smart ones. They've seen freedom before and can't stand it. They'll throw everything they can at her. "Sarah Palin's Alaska" isn't just a TV show, it's a shield against a media onslaught destined to come. Less a shield than a force field, actually. Smart gal.
>>You still haven’t called us “cultists”, a “cult”, “sheeple”, “Gloria Steinems” or “brainless followers” anywhere in this thread. <<
I think you are sincere, just misguided. You continue to mistake your amore with reality.
It is the cult of personality. I haven’t used the invective you have all heaped on me. My analysis is based on — well, analysis. Your collective analysis is based on affection.
I used the term Palin-bot because you have fixated on Mrs. Palin without any deep analysis on what her candidacy would mean and what a disaster it would be.
I won’t go down to the gutter many of you ran to.
Hurl your invective. My point remains unassailed.
“Bella Abzug was a “cuter” version of Ron Paul. I think he needs to set the bar a little higher.”
Heh heh ... the poor bastard is just flailing now ... maybe he will come away with a better understanding of the value of straight talk.
I saw her catch a fish too ... just minding it’s own business and then boom she bashed that bugger with a club!
Seriously what planet do you live on?
TT
Here’s the thing: I will raise $2 million dollars for her campaign after she declares her candidacy and spend every spare moment on the phone on her behalf. Know anyone who is that enthusiatic about Myth Romney or Gomer Huckleberry?
>>A cuter version of what?<<
Ron Paul.
Yes, you’re the “Mr. Spock” of FreeRepublic. I see it now...
>>All the while you spend your time calling Palin supporters names and regurgitating worn out left-wing talking points about Palin. Do you expect people to take you seriously?<<
Pointing out you are backing a loser brings no forensic responsibility to provide a winner. I you back Mrs. Palin, the kenyan wins, period.
I didn't read a thing you wrote. What do you think of that?
If Barack Hussein Obama can become the POTUS, an American like Sarah Palin can become the POTUS too.
All we conservatives have to do is beat your side in the primary, and we are in front at this point.
Hey, I’m wide open. Anyone who wants to be take seriously, though, will need to remind me when he stood up and took on TARP, and Stimulus, and Obamacare, and Cap’n’Trade, and Dream and amnesty and all the rest. If he’s got battle scars from some actual battles, then he gets added to my short list. Where was he during the ‘10 elections; did he help rebuild congress. Where was he with the Tea folk; was he running toward them or away from them. Whats his position with the constitution? Is he a believer or a constitutional agnostic?
Does he spend his energy trying to take down fellow Repubs or does he spend his energy trying to take down the O himself?
Thats who I’m looking for. I can think of a bare handful, maybe I can count them on one hand.
“Ron Paul.”
You see Sarah Palin as being like Ron Paul?
On what do you base this? Feel free to cut and paste from someone you think may be coherent. I’m dying to hear this.
I didn’t say she could’t raise money, in fact she’s a prolific fund raiser, she still won’t get the nomination.
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