Posted on 08/31/2010 2:34:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
This is the time when political bettors try to get the early jump on what might happen when the 2012 presidential election cycle comes, and at the moment former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is the early favorite for the 2012 Republican nomination. Of course, Palin was the 2008 vice-presidential nominee in the party, and she has been conducting her own personal publicity campaign ever since (well, at least in the opinion of many). In the political betting odds, she is priced at +250 to get the nod.
Can I offer a little political commentary here? After all, I was a third-party candidate in the last two elections, and I actually got sidetracked by John McCain's motorcade in Nashville en route to almost being late for my own debate a couple of years ago (okay, I don't want to revisit that). The point is, I'm watching with something of an eagle eye, ready to pounce. or ready to register to vote. I don't know; it's one of those two.
I won't be registering as a Republican, but I find this field of potential nominees to be quite interesting. There is something that tells me someone who is not even on this list is going to emerge between now and late next year, when everyone will have considered whether to run in the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary or in whatever state decides it wants to go first. A lot may depend on who can gain traction with the tea party movement, Yes, I really believe that; there is nothing I have seen yet - and historians I've talked to, including one of my campaign advisers, Darcy Richardson, have told me likewise - that has grown so strong and so organically.
That having been said, here's the list we have in front of us:
Political Betting Odds: To Win 2012 Republican Nomination
•Sarah Palin +250
•Mitt Romney +400
•Bobby Jindal +500
•Mike Huckabee +500
•Tim Pawlenty +1000
•Mark Sanford +1200
•Charlie Crist +1200
•David Petraeus +1500
•Newt Gingrich +1500
•Jeb Bush +2000
•John McCain +2000
•Rudolph Giuliani +1500
•Ron Paul +2000
Here’s the political betting analysis, one-by-one:
SARAH PALIN (+250 in the political betting odds) -- Yeah, she's rapidly become famous for being famous, but she is just not going to get there at the end. There's an entertainment quotient that is pretty high here, but it is a little too cartoonish to be taken seriously. In effect, she has been running for president ever since the polls were closed in November 2008, and so she's had the jump on many. But there will be better alternatives for conservatives by the time there has to be, I am reasonably assured of that.
MITT ROMNEY (+400 in the political betting odds) -- Romney has the kind of solid business background that will make him attractive to many primary voters. But man, he spent a lot of money last time around and really didn't get anywhere. That's not efficient politics. They'll still jump on him for some of his flip-flops too.
BOBBY JINDAL (+500 in the political betting odds) -- He is the proverbial "new kid on the block" when it comes to national politics; he's brilliant, and he's got a lot of people who'd like to support him. However, there's a long way to go, and he hasn't experienced a vetting process like he'll have to go through if, well, he wants to go through with it.
MIKE HUCKABEE (+500 in the political betting odds) -- I get the feeling he's the guy who's been groomed by Fox News to be the candidate since the 2008 elections. I just wonder if he's having too much fun being a TV personality; you know, the kind who DOESN'T have to make decisions on national security on a daily basis.
TIM PAWLENTY (+1000 in the political betting odds) -- There's some buzz here. Pawlenty is the guy some Republicans are hoping will strike a chord with younger voters, and at the same time galvanize some of the blue-collar types. Maybe he'll develop the wide appeal that makes him the "go-to" guy.
MARK SANFORD (+1200 in the political betting odds) -- If he does decide to enter the race in earnest (well, "earnest" may be an in appropriate word), he'll pick up some of the comic relief crumbs that are left by Palin. Although I would say, if he got elected he would revitalize an entire industry of investigative reporters who seem to be taking four years off since Barack Obama came into office.
CHARLIE CRIST (+1200 in the political betting odds) -- This won't happen for the Florida governor. Crist went independent, which means he's going to get it from both sides. He's got his hands full with a Senate race against Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican Marco Rubio, and then there is his close involvement with Ron Rothstein, a politically-connected Fort Lauderdale attorney who robbed $1 million from investors in a Ponzi scheme.
DAVID PETRAEUS (+1500 in the political betting odds) -- Well, he ain't no Eisenhower.
NEWT GINGRICH (+1500) -- Gingrich does not come across with an electric personality, but there are not too many intellectual equals in this Republican field. I'm just wondering if he isn't going to be undercut by candidates who may want to paint him as an elitist. But he certainly comes with gravitas, and may be a value at his price.
JEB BUSH (+2000 in the political betting odds) -- Yeah, this would be a logical move, but I don't know that voters wouldn't just rather put the name "Bush" in their rearview mirrors.
JOHN McCAIN (+2000) -- Too old by now. And he better concentrate on winning his Senate race.
RUDOLPH GIULIANI (+1500) -- He was in an ideal position to make a move in '08, but blew it. Not a great campaigner. Why would things be so different this time around?
RON PAUL (+2000 in the political betting odds) -- Everyone's aware of him now. Yeah, I was happy to endorse his "Campaign for Liberty" in 2008. And guess what? He wouldn't mind legalizing online sports betting (Yay!). But he'll be 77 by Election Day, and I'm thinking that his son Rand, who'll probably be a Senator come November, might have a better chance, which is to say very little chance at all. Bottom line - he's not a value, given these political betting odds.
I’m a Palin fan but my feeling is that Obama’s display of inexperience has squashed any hopes of a Palin presidency in 2012. I believe her time will come but not in the next election. But I’ve been wrong before.
Let’s hope for an 80 year old lilly white senator who’s war injuries prevent him from lifting his arms above his shoulders. You’d think we’d have learned that lesson with Dole.
Palin will beat the crap out of OJerko. But she's not the only one that can.
You could be right, but from where I sit, her inexperience looks far better than Mitts experience.
No, what it means is that we have yet to know the field for 2012.
I don’t think it matters whether they are Senate, House, Military, or a Governor.
2012 will be different than the usual.
I believe that comparing any person on our side to BHO is faulty.
They will emerge. There are those that do not want them to.
I wouldn’t for Mitt. Romneycare is a disaster in Massachusetts. That rules Mitt out for me but I’m a righty. It’ll be a guy like Hayley Barbour I think. I don’t think Mitt can win the Republican nomination since the country has gone right but, paradoxically I suppose, I think he would win the Presidency running away.
LOL! You’re kinda touchy aren’t you?
Of that group, I would vote for Palin.
But I agree with this author that there may be folks out there who haven’t announced their run yet.
Can you name a kick-a$$ Governor or ex-Governor that has a shot?
Right or wrong, from what I can see Palin gets the nod walking away if she decides to run.
She's the best retail politician of the 21st century so far.
Did you notice that the author is some kind of Third Party perrenial candidate and gadfly? No, the people that we are looking at now are the ones we’ll have to pick from, and if it’s Myth Romney or Gomer Huckleberry, I’ll be on a flight out.
Don’t take crap from newboids:)
Thanks. Did you read my post 28?
Us old vets have an obligation to cover for one another...we can't get around as well as we usta could:)
Its a betting line.
The top three are all that are serious candidates statistically.
Jay is a true moron!
.
I know it’s a betting line, but Jindal in third for probability is ridiculous.
There has never been a time in modern politics when somebody came out of nowhere to win the GOP nomination, or some relative unknown won the nod, or some local Congressman was seriously in the running - ever.
We always have known the contenders a few years before the nomination was made. It has never been different, NEVER. Yet every single election cycle, we have to endure the “this election is SOOOOOOOOOOOOO different” blather, and the “local Congressman X is the best Conservative and can win the nomination” crapola. Every single election, we have to hear about some lost cause candidate, and how they're going to catch fire and shock the world and upset everybody and win the nomination because this time it's so different!
There is fantasy, and there is reality. Here's the reality:
The 2012 GOP nominee will be on of 2-4 people we already know, who have already gotten a Presidential ground game going of some sort - Internet, offices, PACs, or some other way. We will not be shocked by who is actually in the running, and nobody who is barely mentioned now will win.
One of the following will be our nominee: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, or Mike Huckabee. There is an outside shot that Haley Barbour or Mitch Daniels make some noise if they run, but not a very big shot. Pawlenty, Thune, ANY Congressman, Crist, and the rest of the names floated have no chance in hell.
The most likely scenario is a choice between Palin and Romney, with Huckabee bleeding votes from Palin. Romney is still the favorite to win the nomination, and if you don't believe that you're in the same crowd that thought McCain had no shot last time around because every Freeper hated him and didn't know anyone who liked him.
That the truth, period. We will almost CERTAINLY be choosing between Mitt or Sarah, with an outside shot Huck can pull it off.
All the howling, dreaming, and swearing upon the chances of some one-percenter (Thune, Ryan, Keyes, etc.) or someone who isn't going to run (DeMint, Jindal, Christie, etc.) isn't going to make a hill of beans of difference.
We already know the 2-4 REAL choices we will have, period.
Even Abraham Lincoln, only the 2nd nominee of the infant Republican Party, was a well-known quantity from his legal work, his term in Congress and the Lincoln-Douglas Debates for a Senate seat that Douglas ultimately won. You’re right, we don’t do Barack Obamas. The people here rooting for the Jim DeMints and Michelle Bachmanns are fooling themselves.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.