There has never been a time in modern politics when somebody came out of nowhere to win the GOP nomination, or some relative unknown won the nod, or some local Congressman was seriously in the running - ever.
We always have known the contenders a few years before the nomination was made. It has never been different, NEVER. Yet every single election cycle, we have to endure the “this election is SOOOOOOOOOOOOO different” blather, and the “local Congressman X is the best Conservative and can win the nomination” crapola. Every single election, we have to hear about some lost cause candidate, and how they're going to catch fire and shock the world and upset everybody and win the nomination because this time it's so different!
There is fantasy, and there is reality. Here's the reality:
The 2012 GOP nominee will be on of 2-4 people we already know, who have already gotten a Presidential ground game going of some sort - Internet, offices, PACs, or some other way. We will not be shocked by who is actually in the running, and nobody who is barely mentioned now will win.
One of the following will be our nominee: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, or Mike Huckabee. There is an outside shot that Haley Barbour or Mitch Daniels make some noise if they run, but not a very big shot. Pawlenty, Thune, ANY Congressman, Crist, and the rest of the names floated have no chance in hell.
The most likely scenario is a choice between Palin and Romney, with Huckabee bleeding votes from Palin. Romney is still the favorite to win the nomination, and if you don't believe that you're in the same crowd that thought McCain had no shot last time around because every Freeper hated him and didn't know anyone who liked him.
That the truth, period. We will almost CERTAINLY be choosing between Mitt or Sarah, with an outside shot Huck can pull it off.
All the howling, dreaming, and swearing upon the chances of some one-percenter (Thune, Ryan, Keyes, etc.) or someone who isn't going to run (DeMint, Jindal, Christie, etc.) isn't going to make a hill of beans of difference.
We already know the 2-4 REAL choices we will have, period.
Even Abraham Lincoln, only the 2nd nominee of the infant Republican Party, was a well-known quantity from his legal work, his term in Congress and the Lincoln-Douglas Debates for a Senate seat that Douglas ultimately won. You’re right, we don’t do Barack Obamas. The people here rooting for the Jim DeMints and Michelle Bachmanns are fooling themselves.