Posted on 08/31/2010 2:34:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
This is the time when political bettors try to get the early jump on what might happen when the 2012 presidential election cycle comes, and at the moment former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is the early favorite for the 2012 Republican nomination. Of course, Palin was the 2008 vice-presidential nominee in the party, and she has been conducting her own personal publicity campaign ever since (well, at least in the opinion of many). In the political betting odds, she is priced at +250 to get the nod.
Can I offer a little political commentary here? After all, I was a third-party candidate in the last two elections, and I actually got sidetracked by John McCain's motorcade in Nashville en route to almost being late for my own debate a couple of years ago (okay, I don't want to revisit that). The point is, I'm watching with something of an eagle eye, ready to pounce. or ready to register to vote. I don't know; it's one of those two.
I won't be registering as a Republican, but I find this field of potential nominees to be quite interesting. There is something that tells me someone who is not even on this list is going to emerge between now and late next year, when everyone will have considered whether to run in the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary or in whatever state decides it wants to go first. A lot may depend on who can gain traction with the tea party movement, Yes, I really believe that; there is nothing I have seen yet - and historians I've talked to, including one of my campaign advisers, Darcy Richardson, have told me likewise - that has grown so strong and so organically.
That having been said, here's the list we have in front of us:
Political Betting Odds: To Win 2012 Republican Nomination
•Sarah Palin +250
•Mitt Romney +400
•Bobby Jindal +500
•Mike Huckabee +500
•Tim Pawlenty +1000
•Mark Sanford +1200
•Charlie Crist +1200
•David Petraeus +1500
•Newt Gingrich +1500
•Jeb Bush +2000
•John McCain +2000
•Rudolph Giuliani +1500
•Ron Paul +2000
Here’s the political betting analysis, one-by-one:
SARAH PALIN (+250 in the political betting odds) -- Yeah, she's rapidly become famous for being famous, but she is just not going to get there at the end. There's an entertainment quotient that is pretty high here, but it is a little too cartoonish to be taken seriously. In effect, she has been running for president ever since the polls were closed in November 2008, and so she's had the jump on many. But there will be better alternatives for conservatives by the time there has to be, I am reasonably assured of that.
MITT ROMNEY (+400 in the political betting odds) -- Romney has the kind of solid business background that will make him attractive to many primary voters. But man, he spent a lot of money last time around and really didn't get anywhere. That's not efficient politics. They'll still jump on him for some of his flip-flops too.
BOBBY JINDAL (+500 in the political betting odds) -- He is the proverbial "new kid on the block" when it comes to national politics; he's brilliant, and he's got a lot of people who'd like to support him. However, there's a long way to go, and he hasn't experienced a vetting process like he'll have to go through if, well, he wants to go through with it.
MIKE HUCKABEE (+500 in the political betting odds) -- I get the feeling he's the guy who's been groomed by Fox News to be the candidate since the 2008 elections. I just wonder if he's having too much fun being a TV personality; you know, the kind who DOESN'T have to make decisions on national security on a daily basis.
TIM PAWLENTY (+1000 in the political betting odds) -- There's some buzz here. Pawlenty is the guy some Republicans are hoping will strike a chord with younger voters, and at the same time galvanize some of the blue-collar types. Maybe he'll develop the wide appeal that makes him the "go-to" guy.
MARK SANFORD (+1200 in the political betting odds) -- If he does decide to enter the race in earnest (well, "earnest" may be an in appropriate word), he'll pick up some of the comic relief crumbs that are left by Palin. Although I would say, if he got elected he would revitalize an entire industry of investigative reporters who seem to be taking four years off since Barack Obama came into office.
CHARLIE CRIST (+1200 in the political betting odds) -- This won't happen for the Florida governor. Crist went independent, which means he's going to get it from both sides. He's got his hands full with a Senate race against Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican Marco Rubio, and then there is his close involvement with Ron Rothstein, a politically-connected Fort Lauderdale attorney who robbed $1 million from investors in a Ponzi scheme.
DAVID PETRAEUS (+1500 in the political betting odds) -- Well, he ain't no Eisenhower.
NEWT GINGRICH (+1500) -- Gingrich does not come across with an electric personality, but there are not too many intellectual equals in this Republican field. I'm just wondering if he isn't going to be undercut by candidates who may want to paint him as an elitist. But he certainly comes with gravitas, and may be a value at his price.
JEB BUSH (+2000 in the political betting odds) -- Yeah, this would be a logical move, but I don't know that voters wouldn't just rather put the name "Bush" in their rearview mirrors.
JOHN McCAIN (+2000) -- Too old by now. And he better concentrate on winning his Senate race.
RUDOLPH GIULIANI (+1500) -- He was in an ideal position to make a move in '08, but blew it. Not a great campaigner. Why would things be so different this time around?
RON PAUL (+2000 in the political betting odds) -- Everyone's aware of him now. Yeah, I was happy to endorse his "Campaign for Liberty" in 2008. And guess what? He wouldn't mind legalizing online sports betting (Yay!). But he'll be 77 by Election Day, and I'm thinking that his son Rand, who'll probably be a Senator come November, might have a better chance, which is to say very little chance at all. Bottom line - he's not a value, given these political betting odds.
Jindal? Sanford? McCain? Paul? I wouldn’t take this list very seriously.
I concur ;-)
Probably too late. If it’s a senator or a congressman, I think we’ve learned our lesson on that one, don’t you?
This guy was a candidate in the last two elections? I'm a political junky and never heard of him.
He knows as much as my mother in law...she's dead.
The list is incomplete and I think AMericans in general will have no stomach for untested candidates with little executive expeience after the ineptitude of this inexperienced administration. Personally I think a Hayley Barbour type will be the next POTUS.
Looks like an incomplete list.
Where’s Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell, John Thune, Tom Coburn, Jim DeMintt, etc etc etc?
Lots of good potential candidates out there.
I am betting on Romney getting the nomination if the Kenyan has no serious opposition from other Social Democrats. If he is the only one on that side the Democrats will flood the Republican primaries and, with the RNC, will choose the “Republican” candidate. Romney is surely counting on that effect.
•Sarah Palin +250
•Mitt Romney +400
•Bobby Jindal +500
•Mike Huckabee +500
•Tim Pawlenty +1000
•Mark Sanford +1200
•Charlie Crist +1200
•David Petraeus +1500
•Newt Gingrich +1500
•Jeb Bush +2000
•John McCain +2000
•Rudolph Giuliani +1500
•Ron Paul +2000
They left out 2 lines;
HUH?
WTF?
This is one of those articles that you actually can reduce your IQ just by reading it.
More likely would be Palin/Barbour or Palin/Bolton or something in that vein.
Even though I don't bet I joined BETUS several years ago to get the sports mags and....aahummm...calenders.
I strongly believe that the next GOP nominee for POTUS is not on this list. Unless the United States has a complete financial collapse that is worse than the Great Depression, none of these is electable if you by the current polls. Yes, is my opinion, and it is only an opinion; however, you do have to consider that the current polling might be correct.
You have no idea what or who I mean, so save it.
I really thought that the IDIOT Bloomberg would be on the list...I misread that thank goodness.
Well, he ain’t no Eisenhower. .......................... Nope, “They” aren’t. I do miss IKE and Ronnie too.
Anything like that happens and I’m outta here:
http://www.LivingInThePhilippines.com
He’s no more likely to repeal ObamaCare than I am to be the next big NBA star.
Charlie Crist?
Mark Sanford?
Ron Paul?
John McLame?
Huckabee???
They’ve got to be kidding with this list. The 2nd time reading it was worse.
Paul Ryan and Chris Christie are the first who came to my mind as well. Ditto DeMint.
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